CNN Meanwhile In The Middle East May 29, 2023 : Erdogan survived thew biggest test of his political career. What's next?

 

May 29, 2023     Erdogan survived the biggest test of his political career. What’s next?       Nadeen Ebrahim

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gestures to supporters at the presidential palace after winning the presidential runoff in Ankara, Turkey on Monday. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images) President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday emerged as winner of the country’s presidential election, proving himself resilient against the opposition bloc as he extends his rule into a third decade.    Official results showed Erdogan winning with 52.1% of the vote, while opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu emerged with 47.9%.    Despite a deadly earthquake and a plummeting local currency, Erdogan’s victory once again showed the leader’s durability, which analysts say is rooted not only in the ways in which he consolidated power over the years, but also shows the enduring loyalty of his core support.    “Considering the wear and tear that comes with 20 years in power, this is a significant achievement. It also signifies the failure of the opposition bloc,” said Can Acun, researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), a pro-government think tank in Ankara.     Opposition warns of ‘hard days ahead’    As preliminary results showed Erdogan in the lead, the leader already began celebrating his triumph as Kilicdaroglu warned of “hard days ahead.”  Analysts say that Erdogan’s winning margin may be a deciding factor in how he chooses to move forward.     The leader won with “neither a landslide nor a narrow margin,” said Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which he says will likely mean business as usual.    In the Turkish context, he said, this means Erdogan is likely to double down on his unorthodox economic policies and a continued crackdown on the opposition, especially since he will look to regain popularity in Istanbul and Ankara – two crucial cities that he lost to the opposition.     Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul, expects a hardened approach by Erdogan towards the opposition and his critics.     Somer also warned of the consequences to Erdogan’s victory, saying it may embolden other leaders around the world who undermine democracy.   Others who have been at the forefront of Erdogan’s political crackdowns have also expressed concern.    Speaking to CNN before the election results came out, Ceylan Akca, a Diyarbakir parliamentarian for the Green Left Party, under which candidates of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) are running, expressed fear for her party if Erdogan wins.     The HDP had been struggling to survive long before Erdogan’s Sunday victory.      It is yet to be seen how Erdogan will handle the opposition, but Acun said that “Erdogan has always been a pragmatic leader, not one driven by revenge.”    The strongman is likely to focus on the economy, he added, but the fight against what he termed as terrorism “may intensify.”    Profound polarization    Analysts say the election results across the two rounds demonstrate the country’s growing polarization.    “Turkey has been a profoundly polarized society for at least the last 40 years or so, and only increasingly so,” said Judd King, a senior adjunct professorial lecturer at the American University in Washington, DC. “The ultra-secularist people would never in their lives consider voting for Erdogan, any more than the anti-secularists would ever vote for the secularist party.”    And while many of Erdogan’s critics are aggrieved, others saw no viable option besides the president.     Erdogan has over the years earned the loyalty from the country’s conservatives, especially in the early days of his rule, King said.    His support base is diverse, he said, adding that it is broadly sympathetic to religion, but ideologically ranges from nationalists to those who actively oppose secularism.    Many of Erdogan’s supporters were happy with his early achievements, especially those that gave religious rights and freedoms to the country’s Muslim majority.     His moves towards an official acceptance of religion were seen as a restoration of the dignity of Turkey’s conservatives and earned him a large, die-hard support base.    Even those who did not see Erdogan’s appeal at the beginning, King said, “really came to value him” as he won loyalty with “with years and years of providing all these services.”    The election results may also be a blow to Western allies who hoped a post-Erdogan era would see Turkey pivot back to its traditional allies in the West, especially amid the president’s friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.     King said that despite his disagreements with the West, Erdogan’s recent foreign policy moves may have given Turkey a kind of independence that many of his supporters appreciate.     Cagaptay said that Erdogan’s foreign policy is unlikely to change.     “[Erdogan’s] transactional foreign policy, where it pits Russia and the US against each other to get what he wants” is likely to continue, he said.

The digest Oman's Sultan in Iran for talks on diplomatic, security issues    Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said arrived in Tehran on Sunday for a two-day visit expected to focus on regional diplomatic and security issues, Reuters cited Iranian state media as reporting, two days after Muscat mediated a prisoner swap between Iran and Belgium. Haitham is expected to meet Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss issues such as Tehran's strained ties with Egypt and Iran's disputed nuclear program, Iranian state media reported.  Background: Oman has long been an interlocutor for the West and Arab nations with Iran and has mediated the release of several foreign citizens and dual nationals. On Friday, Oman helped secure the release of a Belgian aid worker, who was arrested in 2022 and sentenced to 40 years in prison and 74 lashes on charges including spying, in exchange for an Iranian diplomat sentenced to 20 years in prison in connection with a failed bomb plot in France. Why it matters: Media outlets have been touting a possible thawing of ties between Egypt and Iran after decades of feuding. The two countries, whose royalty once intermarried, severed ties shortly after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and have since failed to restore full diplomatic ties or reopen embassies.     Sudan’s RSF says ready to discuss truce extension    Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Saturday said it is willing to discuss the possibility of extending a ceasefire agreement with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which is due to expire Monday.  Background: The two warring factions in Sudan agreed to a seven-day ceasefire agreement brokered by Saudi Arabia and the United States. The agreement is meant to allow urgently needed humanitarian aid to reach civilians, as well as provide a pathway to a permanent cessation of hostilities. The Saudi foreign ministry on Saturday released a statement calling on both parties to resume discussions with the aim of extending the ceasefire.  Why it matters: Fighting has continued despite the agreement, which started on May 22, and on Sunday the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said that nearly 1.4 million people have been displaced in Sudan since conflict erupted in April. At least 730 individuals have also been killed and about 5,500 others wounded as of May 23, according to Sudan’s Federal Ministry of Health.    Swedish foreign minister to meet Turkish counterpart for NATO discussion - Reuters    Sweden's Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom told a broadcaster that he will meet his Turkish counterpart this week to discuss Sweden's accession to NATO, Reuters reported Monday.    Background: Turkey’s Erdogan has last year blocked Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, accusing both countries of housing “terrorist organizations,” referring mainly to Kurdish militants. While Turkey this year approved Finland’s membership, it continues to block that of Sweden.  Why it matters: Erdogan on Sunday won Turkey’s presidential runoff, crushing hopes of a new opposition that has touted itself as friendlier to the West. Billstrom said he will meet his counterpart at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Oslo on Thursday, Reuters reported. Sweden was among the countries to congratulate Erdogan on his Sunday victory.

Around the region Caption: A 2,500-year-old stone toilet seat was excavated in the Old City of Jerusalem in what was known as the House of Ahiel, home to an upper-class family. (Credit: F. Vukosavović)  The Iron Age users of two ancient toilets in Jerusalem were not a healthy bunch, according to an analysis of poop samples from the 2,500-year-old latrines.    Researchers found traces of dysentery-causing parasites in material excavated from the cesspits below the two stone toilets that would have belonged to elite households in the city. Back then, Jerusalem was a vibrant political and religious center in the Assyrian empire and home to between 8,000 and 25,000 people.    It’s the earliest known evidence of a disease called Giardia duodenalis, although the infection, which causes diarrhea, abdominal cramps and weight loss, had previously been identified in Roman-era Turkey and in medieval Israel.    Most of those who die from dysentery caused by Giardia today are children, and chronic infection in kids can lead to stunted growth, impaired cognitive function and failure to thrive.    Ancient poop is a rich source of information for archaeologists and has revealed an Iron Age appetite for blue cheese, a mystery population on the Faroe Islands and the discovery that the builders of Stonehenge feasted on the internal organs of cattle.    Archaeologists excavating the latrines took samples from sediment in the cesspit beneath each toilet seat.    They found one seat south of Jerusalem in the neighborhood of Armon ha-Natziv at a mansion excavated in 2019. It likely dates from the days of King Manasseh, who ruled for 50 years in the mid-seventh century BC. Made of limestone, the toilet has a large central hole for defecating and an adjacent hole likely for male urination.    The other toilet seat studied, similar in design, was excavated in Jerusalem at a seven-room building known as the House of Ahiel, which would have been home to an upper-class family at the time.    The researchers tested for Entamoeba, Giardia and Cryptosporidium: three parasitic microorganisms that are among the most common causes of diarrhea in humans — and behind outbreaks of dysentery. Tests for Entamoeba and Cryptosporidium were negative, but those for Giardia were repeatedly positive.    The Middle East was the region of the world where humans first created settlements, learned to farm and domesticate animals, and where the first large towns and cities sprang up. Cities such as Jerusalem likely would have been hot spots for disease outbreaks, and illnesses would have spread easily by traders and during military expeditions, according to the study.    By Katie Hunt    Read the full story here.

Photo of the day A worker brushes off the dust at the embalming workshop site for humans at the newly discovered site where two embalming workshops for humans and animals, two tombs and a collection of artefacts were also found, near Egypt's Saqqara necropolis, in Giza, Egypt on May 27. (REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh)

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