The HILL
Five takeaways from President Trump’s address on Iran
President Trump delivered a primetime address about the war on Iran on Wednesday evening, more than a month after hostilities commenced.
Trump’s decision to launch the war, in conjunction with Israel, has come to look more and more risky.
The conflict has been unpopular since its inception. Soaring gas prices and turbulence on the financial markets have sharpened the cost for Americans.
In opinion polls, Trump’s approval ratings have dropped to, or close to, the lowest point of his second term.
The president and his allies insist he deserves credit for being willing to take action against Iran. They also emphasize the successes that have been notched by the U.S. military.
Here are the main takeaways from Trump’s speech.
The headline claim: “Nearing completion”
Trump spoke for almost 19 minutes but much of his rhetoric amounted to little more than a repetition of things he has already said or posted on social media.
The White House’s intended headline from the speech seems to have been the claim from Trump that the U.S.’s “core strategic objectives are nearing completion.”
Soon afterward, Trump added, “We’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close.”
The claim is intended to reassure the American public that there is no danger of seeing another quagmire of the kind witnessed in Iraq and Afghanistan or, a generation before, in Vietnam.
However, there was virtually nothing in terms of specificity from the president. The objectives he referred to are subjective by their nature.
Also, a countervailing thrust in Trump’s remarks — where he threatened Iran with still-greater destruction — ultimately drew just as much attention.
A speech notable for what was not said
From a news-making perspective, the speech was underwhelming.
Speculation ran wild in the minutes before the speech began — too wild, in retrospect.
Forecasts that Trump would come to the cusp of withdrawing from NATO or open the door to using ground troops to seize Iran’s enriched uranium proved wrong.
The president instead once again rehashed Iran’s long record of antagonism toward the U.S.; complained about the nuclear deal that had been in place under former President Obama; and exulted in the damage that has been done to Iran’s navy and air force.
The issue? None of this was remotely surprising to anyone who has even a passing acquaintance with all the things Trump has already said about the war.
The central political difficulty for Trump has been the seeming inability to articulate a clear case for why the war was necessary right now.
The failure has disconcerted even some in his own party. Last month, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) was asked during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week” what the “primary objective” of the war was.
“I don’t know, and I think it’s a real problem,” Tillis replied.
It is a problem that Trump conspicuously failed to solve on Wednesday night.
An initial thumbs-down from the markets
Trump always places a great deal of importance on reaction to his words and deeds on the markets.
He won’t have been pleased on Wednesday night.
The price of oil spiked after his remarks. Brent Crude oil, just slightly under $100 right before his speech was given, stood above $106 roughly an hour after he finished. WTI Crude also rose by more than four percent.
Stock market futures across all three major U.S. indices also fell sharply, declining by around one percent.
To be sure, markets can rebound quickly, and futures markets are particularly susceptible to abrupt changes in direction.
Still the negative market sentiment seemed to be driven by two factors: the lack of a clear timetable for an off-ramp from the conflict, and the more bellicose elements of Trump’s address.
The latter included the pledge that Iran was going to be hit “extremely hard.”
“Over the next two to three weeks we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong,” Trump added. “In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.”
Trump tries to reassure public — and blame Iran — on gas prices
Escalating fuel costs are hitting Americans as the war goes on. The average price for a gallon of regular gas in the United States is now more than a dollar higher than before the conflict began.
On Wednesday, Trump reiterated his claim that Americans are experiencing only a “short-term increase” in prices.
He also sought to pin the blame directly on the Iranians, saying that the rise was “entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers in neighboring countries.”
This, in turn, he said was “yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons.”
Iran had been widely predicted to assail Gulf nations’ oil assets and to try to close the Strait of Hormuz if it was attacked. The inability to get the Strait reopened has dogged Trump so far.
Later in his speech, Trump contended that “when this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally” and “gas prices will rapidly come back down.”
A brief respite — relatively speaking — for NATO allies
Predictions that Trump would really take a hammer to NATO, and to key allies within it, proved overblown.
Trump’s one allusion to such tensions amounted to remarks that hewed closely to a recent social media post.
He said that many nations now struggling for fuel are those that had refused to “get involved in the decapitation of Iran. We had to do it ourselves.”
Those nations, he added, should buy oil from the U.S. or “build up some delayed courage…go to the Strait and just take it.”
Even if the suggestion is hard to imagine coming from any other recent American president, it was well short of the full-on lashing some NATO nations were bracing for.
No comments:
Post a Comment