Turkish Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa
Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh
POLICY NOTES JUNE 2022
NO. 120
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY
The past decade of Turkish foreign policy has been marked by Ankara’s
relative isolation in the Middle East. With the exception of Qatar, Turkey
has had few regional state allies. This has begun to change as Turkey
pursues rapprochement—with limited results thus far—with the United Arab
Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel amid an unprecedented economic
crisis at home.1
In contrast with the Middle East, Turkey has amassed a more impressive
record of influence building in sub-Saharan Africa. This engagement
constitutes a relatively new phenomenon, dating to the start of Justice and
Development Party (AKP) rule in 2002—with Recep Tayyip Erdogan becoming
prime minister in 2003—and has prospered on multiple fronts, including
economic ties, military cooperation, and cultural, humanitarian, and religious
2
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initiatives. Accordingly, this paper builds on existing
analyses to provide an overview of the many projects
pursued by Turkish actors on the African continent, while also seeking to highlight the changing contours of this issue for U.S. policymakers from the
perspective of regional competition in Africa and the Middle East.
investment in Turkish markets, boost the economy,
and rebuild his base ahead of the country’s 2023
scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections.5
It remains to be seen if such rapprochement—particularly with the UAE—will ease either domestic economic
woes or competition for influence building across
sub-Saharan Africa, and especially in the Horn of
Africa, where Turkish-Emirati jostling has been strongest. The United States should stay abreast of TurkishAfrican ties, particularly in the Muslim-majority and Muslim-plurality Sahel, Horn of Africa, and East Africa,
where Turkish influence appears to be most solid. (For
a depiction of Turkey’s activities, see figure 1, “Turkey’s
Influence in Africa on the Rise.”)
Historical Background
In North Africa, Ankara has traditionally had a
significant presence given that most of the region,
excepting Morocco, was once part of the Ottoman
Empire. This has not been the case for sub-Saharan
Africa, where the Ottoman imprint was minimal, at
best, beyond Sudan and littoral regions of the Horn of
Africa. Indeed, until the rise of Erdogan—who served
as Turkey’s prime minister between 2003 and 2014
and has been president since—Turkish foreign policy
decisionmakers have generally neglected subSaharan Africa.
While some past Turkish leaders have tried to
diversify the longstanding Western orientation of the
nation’s foreign policy—such as in Prime Minister
Turgut Ozal’s outreach to the Middle East in the
1980s and President Suleyman Demirel’s foray into
Central Asia in the 1990s—the sub-Saharan outreach
belongs almost completely to Erdogan. At least
initially, Erdogan’s Africa policy was informed by his
advisor Ahmet Davutoglu, who served as his foreign
minister (2009–14) and later prime minister (2014–
16). While Turkey officially launched its “African
Initiative Policy” process aimed at building soft
power across the continent in 1998, major headway
was only made several years later under Erdogan
and Davutoglu when Turkey became an observer to
Abbreviations
AKP Justice and Development Party
AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia
AU African Union
CSO civil society organization
EUTM-S European Training Mission–Somalia
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
MCC Military Coordination Cell (U.S.
mission in Somalia)
PKK Kurdistan Workers Party
TIKA Turkish Cooperation and Coordination
Agency
YEI Yunus Emre Institute
Turkey’s presence in Africa is far from hegemonic.
As a former Turkish diplomat noted in April 2021, a
weakened Turkish economy and poor relations with
its neighbors pose challenges to Ankara’s broader
Africa policy.2 Turkey’s economic problems have
only worsened since this comment, with inflation
hitting a twenty-four-year high in May 2022.3 What
is more, in countries such as Somalia and Sudan,
leaders with close ties to Turkish president Erdogan
have recently been replaced by leaders friendly to
the UAE and other regional actors.4 Simultaneously,
however, Erdogan has pursued rapprochement with
Ankara’s Middle East rivals, partly in an effort to seek
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TURKISH INFLUENCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
These CSOs were often the first Turkish institutions to arrive
in a sub-Saharan country. In most cases, Turkish Foreign
Ministry missions and flights on the government-owned Turkish
Airlines ensued. But following the Erdogan-Gulen split in 2011
and especially after the 2016 failed coup attempt, in which
Gulen-aligned officers played a key role, Erdogan has moved
against the Gulen network—now called FETÖ by Turkey—including its outposts in Africa.8
The Turkish government has successfully convinced many
of its African counterparts to shut down Gulen-run entities
or transfer their ownership to Ankara-controlled ones, such as
the Education Foundation (Maarif Vakfi) in the case of schools.9 In
consolidating its control over the influence-building process,
including through official networks such as Maarif Vakfi
and state religious, cultural, military, and humanitarian
organizations, Turkey has reinvigorated its influence across the
continent since 2016.
Today, Turkish activity in Africa is multifaceted and, in the
words of anthropologist Ezgi Guner, “multiscalar.”
It involves the state bureaucracy and state-to-state
interaction, AKP-aligned businesses, NGOs, and
Islamic groups.10 Bilateral relations are bolstered by
a growing list of Turkish diplomatic missions across
the continent, as well as summits with African
leaders often organized in Turkey.11 The continent
now hosts forty-four Turkish embassies (the latest,
in Guinea-Bissau, announced by Turkish Ministry
of Foreign Affairs official Nur Sagman on June 20,
2022), compared to a dozen in 2002, many of which
Figure 1: Turkey’s Influence in Africa on the Rise
Source: Anadolu Agency (2021)
the African Union (in 2005) and eventually an AU
strategic partner (in 2008).6 Erdogan has been the
one constant in Turkey’s sub-Saharan initiatives,
with reports suggesting he has visited more than
thirty African nations in the past eighteen years,
sometimes making multiple visits to a country.7
In the first decade of Erdogan’s rule, the movement led by Fethullah Gulen helped build Turkish influence on the continent through its network of
schools, businesses, and civil society organizations.
4 T HE WAS HINGTON INS T I T U T E FOR NE A R E AS T P OL ICY
CAGAPTAY, COOK, AND SOUKKARIEH TURKISH INFLUENCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
were in North Africa.12 Not insignificantly, Turkish
Airlines reportedly flew to sixty-one African destinations in 2021, up from a mere handful—again mostly in North Africa—when Erdogan became prime
minister in 2003.13 These dynamics together contribute to Ankara’s commercial, military, and cultural connectivity with Africa.
Economic Ties
Turkey’s economic ties with the continent have
increased significantly over the last two decades.
Whereas the total volume of trade between Turkey
and sub-Saharan Africa was $1.35 billion in 2003,
Turkey’s semiofficial Anadolu Agency reports that
in 2021 it had reached $10.7 billion.14 Turkish
exports have risen at a similar pace, amounting
to some $7.9 billion in 2021. As of January 2021,
according to unnamed Turkish officials, more than
a third of the $6 billion in Turkish investment in the
sub-Saharan region had gone toward Ethiopia. This
commitment by Erdogan undoubtedly owes at least
in part to the country’s 114 million citizens, its status
as East Africa’s largest economy—on a purchasing
power parity basis—and its role hosting the African
Union.15 In Senegal in the west, meanwhile, Turkey’s
ambassador, Ahmet Kavas, recently suggested that
Turkey is seeking to grow its trade with the African
continent to upward of $50 billion over 2022–26.16
Some Turkish initiatives, however, have been
affected by domestic political changes in African
countries, with one example involving historic
Suakin Island on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. Back in
2017, in the highest-level visit by a Turkish official
to Sudan since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire
almost a century earlier, Erdogan signed a $650
million deal with then president Omar al-Bashir
aimed at restoring and rebuilding the island’s
infrastructure.17 At the time, the Sudanese foreign
minister indicated Turkey would be rebuilding the
Ottoman-era port and constructing a naval dock
for civilian and military use.18 Part of the island
was to be temporarily granted to Turkey during the
restoration.19 In 2018, the Turkish Cooperation and
Coordination Agency (TIKA) began restoration work
with the goal of “turn[ing] the island into a major
tourism center especially for Hajj-bound pilgrims.”20
Later that year, Turkey and Qatar signed a $4 billion
deal to collaboratively develop Suakin’s port.21
Turkey’s agreement with Sudan caused controversy
among some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
members concerned that Ankara would be building
a military base there to expand its regional footprint,
and also taking into account rising Turkish-Qatari
influence amid the Gulf rift between Doha and its
neighbors.22 Erdogan, for his part, denied that Turkey
was building a naval base on the island.23 After
Bashir was ousted by a military coup in April 2019,
however, reports emerged suggesting the TurkeySudan
deal had been canceled, even as a Turkish Defense Ministry
official denied these claims.24
Nevertheless, the current status of this project
remains unclear, especially amid the post-Bashir
eclipse of Turkish influence in Sudan by Egypt and
the UAE.
Military Ties
Security issues have been another priority for
Ankara, which seeks to solidify a political presence
in Africa—and globally—and has thus involved itself
in several conflicts across the continent. Under
Erdogan, Turkey has spread its wings militarily
beyond its immediate neighborhood (e.g., in Iraq,
where it has maintained a permanent military presence
since the 1990s to fight the Kurdistan Workers
Party, or PKK), sending troops overseas to fight
in wars (e.g., in Libya) and establishing bases and
training militaries of Turkey-aligned governments
(e.g., in Somalia).
In this regard, Somalia, which currently hosts the
world’s largest Turkish embassy,25 has witnessed
a growing Turkish presence since 2017, when
Ankara completed a military facility to support the
central government in its struggle against militant
groups, including the al-Qaeda–aligned al-Shabab.26
Similarly, in February 2022 Turkey’s parliament
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TURKISH INFLUENCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
green-lighted an extended troop deployment around
the Indian Ocean, including in Somalia, until
February 2023.27 Ankara has also signed military
cooperation and training agreements with Ethiopia,
Niger, Senegal, and other countries.28 In total, Turkey
is said to have established thirty-seven military
offices on the continent.29
Moreover, Turkey clearly sees a market for its
military exports in Africa—through state-owned
and private companies alike—including its robust
drone industry, with drones playing a crucial role
in Turkish-African ties.30 On the drone front, technology
innovated by Selcuk Bayraktar, a son-in-law
to Erdogan, recently drew high-profile attention for
helping the Ukrainian military contest the Russian
invasion.31 African nations such as Ethiopia, Nigeria,
and Niger are reported to have already purchased
Turkish drones.32 And countries like Angola and
Rwanda are reportedly part of a growing list of potential buyers.33 Meanwhile, overall Turkish defense
and aviation exports to Angola, Chad, and Ethiopia
increased significantly in 2021.34 For example, Niger
made headlines as “the first foreign customer of
Turkey’s Hurkus aircraft,” a manned military training aircraft, in November 2021, and Chad was the first African country to purchase the Turkish Yoruk
4x4 armored vehicle (Senegal has also purchased
armored vehicles from the producers of the Yoruk).35
Despite significant exports of defense technology,
Turkey’s military ties with African countries have
not been without problems. This is especially true
of Ethiopia, which has used Turkish-made drones in
its war against rebels in the Tigray region. Turkish
drones were reportedly used in a January 2022
Ethiopian attack that killed fifty-eight civilians
hiding in a school. Overall, Ethiopia’s reliance on
drones, which it buys from multiple countries,
including the UAE, China, and Iran, has resulted
in more than three hundred civilian deaths in the
Tigray conflict.36 U.S. officials reportedly voiced
concern to Turkey about weapon sales to Ethiopia.37
Turkey also reportedly moved its Ethiopian embassy
to Kenya following threats relating to the use of
Turkish drones in the Tigray conflict.38 Turkish
The Turkish embassy in Mogadishu. Source: REUTERS/Feisal Omar
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embassies and consulates in the United States
even became sites of protest by diaspora Tigrayans
voicing their anger at Turkey’s arming of Ethiopian
prime minister Abiy Ahmed.39
Cultural Links, Humanitarianism, and Religion
Beyond economic and military ties, Turkey has
worked to cultivate its image as a benign partner—
with “no colonial baggage”—seeking mutual benefits
for Turks and Africans alike.40 Turkey’s soft power
initiatives accordingly assume that the Turkish
approach to Africa is not exploitative relative to
Western European nations—the traditional colonial
powers on the continent—and others. In an article
that encapsulates this approach, Turkey’s state
broadcaster TRT World quoted experts and Turkish
diplomats who make the following arguments:
Turkey has emerged as a “strong alternative” to
Western states—because it does not have a colonial
history in Africa—and to China, another rising
self-professed “no colonial baggage” power but
one whose partnerships often incur sizable debts
for African states; Turkey’s approach is based on
“developing and winning together”; and Turkey
has adopted a “win-win policy that grants fair
cooperation for mutual development and humanitarian aid.”41
(Whether or not Turkey is actually and
completely perceived as such in Africa is another
matter.)
Ankara has thus sought to establish a cultural
rapport with sub-Saharan Africa through various
means. The head of the country’s global cultural
agency, Yunus Emre Institute (YEI), which is named
after a medieval Turkish humanist poet, said in 2021
that the institute is planning to open ten new cultural
centers in Africa in 2022, and added that YEI needs
to open centers in at least twenty to twenty-five
more African countries. YEI, he said, plays the role
of “cultural ambassador” beyond Turkey’s borders.
Already, Turkey has ten cultural centers across
Africa, including in Nigeria and Rwanda, where
people can study Turkish.42 Relatedly, President
Erdogan has said that more than 14,000 African
students have studied in Turkey, including those who
have received grants from the country’s “Turkiye
Scholarships” grant program.43
On the humanitarian front, Turkey has established
“a maternal and child healthcare center in Niger,
several women’s shelters in Cameroon, and a vocational
training center in Madagascar,” according to
Turkish first lady Emine Erdogan, who wrote in a
2018 op-ed that “women’s empowerment” forms
a cornerstone of Turkish development in Africa.44
(Interestingly, the first lady also published a book
in 2021 about her travels to twenty-three African
countries with the president.45) Turkey has also
assisted in fields such as water provision, among
others, in Africa.46
As for Turkish involvement in Africa’s religious
life, Erdogan has over the years heavily funded and
deployed Diyanet, the public agency that oversees
Sunni Islam in Turkey, in hopes of sparking pro-Islamic
sentiment on the continent and situating Turkey as a leader.
These efforts extend especially to
the Horn of Africa. For example, in Djibouti, Diyanet
completed construction in November 2019 of the
impressive Abdulhamid II Mosque—named for the
nineteenth-century Ottoman sultan who took an
interest in pan-Islamic causes while trying to rebuild
Ottoman influence globally—and previously, in 2015,
helped renovate a Somali mosque initially funded
by Saudi Arabia.47 Similar charitable acts have been
initiated in other Horn countries such as Ethiopia
and African states such as Ghana, Burkina Faso,
Mali, South Africa, and Chad.48 Beyond mosques,
Turkey’s Islam-related work in Africa includes
funding educational facilities run by Sufi networks in
cooperation with the Turkish state.49
Finally, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Turkey has
used “vaccine diplomacy” to further improve its ties
to African countries. In December 2021, Erdogan
expressed Turkey’s intent to deliver 15 million doses
of the indigenously developed Turkovac vaccine to
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Mehmet Yilmaz said in 2020 that Turkey has trained
one-third of Somalia’s military forces, including
special forces, such as the Gorgor and Haramcad
units.58 Some members of these units were even
trained in Turkey.59
Somalia researcher Guled Ahmed has commented on
the associated controversy.60 For example, the Gorgor
forces have been implicated in using live ammunition
against civilians demonstrating in Mogadishu
against election delays.61 The Haramcad units have
been involved in the arrest of journalists as well as
alleged attacks against them, and purportedly in
an attack by former president Mohamed Abdullahi
Mohamed “Farmajo” on his political adversary, the
newly elected president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.62
Farmajo also used them as a means to curb political
dissent.63 Indeed, the Somali opposition even wrote
a letter to Turkey requesting that the latter stop
arming the Haramcad during the election dispute in
December 2020.64
The Turkish training facility, one must note, is
not the only training mission in Somalia: the U.S.
Military Coordination Cell in Somalia (MCC), the
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and the
European Training Mission–Somalia (EUTM-S) are all
involved in efforts to enhance security in the country.
Moreover, all such actors do appear to engage in some
level of coordination and cooperation.65
Furthermore, Turkey’s cultural impact has been
significant. In Somalia, nearly 100,000 Somalis
reportedly have some Turkish-language skills,
according to Turkey’s semiofficial Anadolu Agency,
which suggests that Turkish could soon be the
“number 2 language” in Somalia.66 Indeed, “Istanbul”
has become one of the most popular female names
in the country. Also, according to reports, Turkey’s
state broadcaster TRT is set to boost the Somali
filmmaking industry.67 And through the “Turkiye
Scholarships” for international students, Somalia
has become “one of the top countries in Africa for
sending students to Turkey for higher education.”68 In
fact, Somalia’s current justice minister, Abdulkadir
Mohamed Nur, was educated in Turkey and served at
the Somali embassy in Ankara.69
the continent pending its authorization for use.50
Three months later, on March 22, 2022, the first
shipment of vaccines (although not Turkovac) went
to Somalia,51 whose relationship with Turkey, as the
next section shows, has been unique.
Somalia as a Case Study
Even in the context of a large Turkish footprint in
the Horn of Africa, Turkey’s relations with Somalia
stand out.52 This is not surprising given Somalia’s
strategic value for Turkey, notably as a gateway to
the Indian Ocean.
But Turkey’s relationship with Somalia, as successful as it
has been, also underlines challenges in Ankara’s larger Africa
policy. For Turkey’s extensive diplomatic relations with
Somalia, Erdogan deserves credit. He traveled to famine-afflicted
Mogadishu in 2011, becoming the first non-African
leader to visit the country since 1991.53 He visited
again in 2015 and 2016. Specifically, in showing its
commitment, Turkey has facilitated talks between
the Somali central government and the leadership
of breakaway Somaliland, which declared its independence
in 1991. 54
Beyond diplomatic relations, Turkey has been a major
provider of aid to Somalia, although Turkish policy
has moved past humanitarianism alone. Bilateral
trade volume reached $280 million in 2020, and
Turkish companies now operate Mogadishu’s main
port as well as its airport.55 In early 2020, Erdogan
also claimed the Somali state had invited Turkey to
search for oil in its territorial waters, although this
seems not to have happened.56
While Turkish officials hail bilateral military ties
as contributing to Somalia’s security and fight
against terrorism, these ties have not been free of
controversy. As a baseline, in the past decade Turkey
and Somalia have signed multiple military pacts,
with Turkey opening a military training facility
in Somalia (for Somali soldiers) in 2017 known as
Camp TURKSOM.57 Turkish ambassador to Somalia
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Cultural concerns about Turkish involvement
sometimes blend with those relating to the military.
In remarking on potential Turkish “indoctrination”
of Somali troops, for example, Guled Ahmed notes
instances such as Somali troops “singing the Turkish
national anthem with a background video showing
Turkish army propaganda commemorating the
Ottoman Empire.”70
Turkey’s relationship with Somalia embodies
the image the country is trying to cultivate in
the region—that of a benefactor lending a helping
hand—as seen through Erdogan’s 2011 visit to
Mogadishu and the rhetoric surrounding Turkey’s
military facility Camp TURKSOM. Indeed, one op-ed
in the AKP-aligned Daily Sabah referred to Turkey
as “Somalia’s long-lost brother” who was there to
“rebuild the country,”71 while another discussed
the countries’ historical ties dating back to the
sixteenth century, when the “Ottoman Empire sought
to prevent Somalia from becoming a Portuguese
colony.” The piece went on to commend “the Ottoman
presence in Berbera...[for being] the guarant[or] of
peace in the region,” just as “the presence of the
military training center in Somalia [is] today.”72
Yet Turkey’s efforts are not immune to Somali
domestic politics. The May 2022 election of
UAE-backed Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as Somalia’s
new president could potentially cool the rapport,
given the break it constitutes with Farmajo, who
maintained very close ties with Turkey and Qatar.73
Turkey’s Challenges in Africa
Among Turkey’s challenges in sub-Saharan Africa
are its competitors for position. From the Middle
East alone, the UAE and Israel are making a play,74
as is Qatar, although it tends to align with Turkey.
Globally, China, the United States, and France are
perhaps most prominent; Beijing, a clear competitor
for Washington and Paris, outpaces Ankara in almost
every category.75 At the same time, some analysts
have noted a dip in Chinese interest in Africa,76 with
a recent Economist overview explaining that “Turkish
[construction] firms are chipping away at the dominance
of Chinese ones, helped no doubt by a drop in
lending by China.”77
Global media sources have also published stories
on Turkish competition with France, particularly
in Francophone Africa.78 Sahelian popular opinion
on French involvement in domestic affairs, for
example, has evidently soured, often favoring
“Turkey as less overbearing than the European
Union or France, and as a partner with similar
interests.”79 Interestingly, during the Turkey-Africa
Media Summit in May 2022, Fahrettin Altun, who
heads media and communications for the Turkish
presidency, said the launch of TRT French in April
was a “good development” for Turkey’s ties with
Africa.80 Indeed, while Ankara has sometimes seen
itself in competition with Paris, experts have noted
that these narratives may be overblown, particularly
given that French influence is most significant in West
Africa, where Turkish influence is relatively
weaker.81 It is unclear if the recent French-Turkish
rapprochement, linked to the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, will affect these dynamics.82
Turkish competition with the UAE, especially in
Somalia, bears mention here. While Turkey has
historically partnered with the central government
in Mogadishu, Abu Dhabi has mostly been building
influence in Somaliland, the country’s breakaway
region, and in the semiautonomous region of
Puntland. Specifically, Turkey built a military
facility in Mogadishu, where Turkish companies
operate the capital’s main port and airport, and
the UAE has sought to establish a military facility
in Somaliland, where it initially planned to train
Somaliland forces—although the site is now
apparently set to be converted to a civilian airport.
Moreover, Emirati companies have developed and
operated Somaliland’s Berbera port and Puntland’s
Bosaso port.83 Yet recently, the central government in
Mogadishu has changed hands from Turkey-backed
Farmajo to Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was
reportedly supported in his election campaign by the
UAE and other regional powers.84 It remains unclear
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whether potentially improving ties between Turkey
and the UAE—or the change in Somali leadership—
will lessen or aggravate the countries’ competition in
Somalia or elsewhere.
It also remains to be seen whether the embrace
of Ankara by African capitals will stand the test
of time. Skeptics have asserted that Turkey’s true
Africa engagement has recently thinned, offering as
evidence officials’ lip service to flashy installations
like embassies, new flight routes, and summits. This
is especially important as Turkey’s economy faces
its most serious downturn since Erdogan’s rise in
2003, and it is unclear if Ankara can continue to
prioritize African relationships as it has thus far.85
Yet notwithstanding the downsides, along with
the state-to-state interaction, benefits have surely
accrued to Turkish industry such as construction
and defense companies.
Conclusion
In late February 2022, the Russian invasion of
Ukraine interrupted President Erdogan’s visit to
Africa, and four months later the war persists, even if
it has ceded preeminence in news headlines. As for
other leaders, the war has concentrated the Turkish
leader’s attention.86 This is the case even though
Turkish foreign policy in Ukraine, and elsewhere,
faces constraints caused by the country’s economic
troubles—a situation that could have ripple effects in
Africa.87 Nevertheless, the Turkish presence in Africa
is worth watching for U.S. officials, especially given
the question of China competition. Recent opportunities
for cooperation with a less isolated Turkey, as in Ukraine,
could bear fruit for the bilateral relationship
and should ultimately benefit African governments
and their people.
Policy Notes June 2022 No: 120
The Washington Instıtute for Near East Policy
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