Friday, May 8, 2026 ACIntel_Headshot_Cookson 1 John Cookson, AC Intel Anchor Each week since the start of the Iran war, I’ve used this Friday newsletter to ask the biggest question about the conflict. This week’s question: Will Iran derail next week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping? In the newest episode of the “So What’s the Strategy” podcast, our Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security head Matthew Kroenig interviews Kurt M. Campbell, former US deputy secretary of state and co-founder of The Asia Group. They discuss how there’s been a lot of media attention about Trump travelling to Beijing while the situation in the Middle East remains so turbulent. But, Kurt argues, it’s also “quite unusual” for Xi to be hosting this meeting, given China’s history of supporting Iran. “That suggests that both leaders feel that they’ve got important things to do,” he tells Matt. On the US side, Trump is “clearly signaling” his desire to have a good meeting with Xi, Kurt says, with a lot of the US leader’s language “reminiscent of a G-2 approach,” in which global power is negotiated between the United States and China. But that approach could have its own consequences outside of the room where Xi and Trump meet. Your AC Intel starts there. 1. “Most countries in the Indo-Pacific are quietly quite anxious” One major concern ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, Kurt tells Matt, is that “the United States and China will seem to be taking positions over the heads of key allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, even India.” Another worry is that the White House will be “too open and liberal with technology, allowing China access to capabilities” in which the United States still has “clear advantages.” WATCH 2. The paradox at the heart of Costa Rica’s political moment 2026-02-04T202040Z_1891090378_RC20FJARN5C7_RTRMADP_3_COSTA-RICA-POLITICS In many countries, voters are punishing incumbents, rejecting traditional political parties, and rewarding candidates who promise disruption over continuity. “Costa Rica appears, at least on the surface, to be an exception,” Latin America analyst María Fernanda Bozmoski argues. Earlier today, Laura Fernández Delgado was sworn in as Costa Rica’s newest president, after she campaigned on a platform of continuity paired with a tougher stance on crime. READ 3. Reform the Jones Act to lower US energy costs Amid the energy supply shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the 1920 Jones Act makes it difficult to ship refined oil from the US Gulf Coast to the United States’ Atlantic and Pacific seaboards, raising costs, due to the law’s requirements around US-built and US-owned vessels. Energy analysts David L. Goldwyn, Reid I’Anson, and Andrea Clabough suggest a waiver program that would allow shippers “to use non–Jones Act compliant vessels permanently, as long as they can certify that no alternative compliant vessel was available.” READ Digital_Stacked_Green Join our channel today No algorithm, no filters! All the world-class analysis from the Atlantic Council on your phone. Sign up today 4. “There are lots of signs of things coming apart” That’s the assessment of Russia from former US Ambassador to Ukraine and head of our Eurasia Center John Herbst, speaking at an Atlantic Council event today. The Kremlin has failed to gain net Ukrainian territory lately while suffering casualties approaching 40,000 per month and increasing economic damage from Ukrainian drones and more. “None of this means that Putin is gone tomorrow. But a betting man would not be surprised if his regime were gone in two or three years.” WATCH 5. After one year of Merz in Germany, questions about how many more will follow Wednesday marked one year since German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office. Recent polling paints a bleak picture of his future, with a strong majority of Germans dissatisfied with Merz’s government. Phyllis Berry, a former national intelligence officer for Europe at the US National Intelligence Council, argues that without greater economic growth, “pressures could lead to its premature collapse and slide Germany into a crisis of governability.” READ FUTURE INTEL Managing risk in an era of geopolitical tension Insurance is all about risk. Specifically, it’s about mitigating risk. In a world swarming with geopolitical risks, how should one begin to assess what is possible? This coming Tuesday, join Lloyd’s of London Chair Sir Charles Roxburgh for an #ACFrontPage conversation on navigating rising geopolitical tensions. REGISTER Receive this email from a friend? Click to subscribe. Have feedback? Email our editors. At the Atlantic Council, we provide relevant and authoritative insight at speed and in depth. Engage with our experts in real time by following us on: Facebook Instagram LinkedIn X YouTube WhatsApp

 

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View in browser Friday, May 8, 2026 John Cookson, AC Intel Anchor Each week since the start of the Iran war, I’ve used this Friday newsletter to ask the biggest question about the conflict. This week’s question: Will Iran derail next week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping?   In the newest episode of the “So What’s the Strategy” podcast, our Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security head Matthew Kroenig interviews Kurt M. Campbell, former US deputy secretary of state and co-founder of The Asia Group. They discuss how there’s been a lot of media attention about Trump travelling to Beijing while the situation in the Middle East remains so turbulent. But, Kurt argues, it’s also “quite unusual” for Xi to be hosting this meeting, given China’s history of supporting Iran.   “That suggests that both leaders feel that they’ve got important things to do,” he tells Matt. On the US side, Trump is “clearly signaling” his desire to have a good meeting with Xi, Kurt says, with a lot of the US leader’s language “reminiscent of a G-2 approach,” in which global power is negotiated between the United States and China.   But that approach could have its own consequences outside of the room where Xi and Trump meet. Your AC Intel starts there. 1. “Most countries in the Indo-Pacific are quietly quite anxious”   One major concern ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, Kurt tells Matt, is that “the United States and China will seem to be taking positions over the heads of key allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, even India.” Another worry is that the White House will be “too open and liberal with technology, allowing China access to capabilities” in which the United States still has “clear advantages.”    WATCH 2. The paradox at the heart of Costa Rica’s political moment  In many countries, voters are punishing incumbents, rejecting traditional political parties, and rewarding candidates who promise disruption over continuity. “Costa Rica appears, at least on the surface, to be an exception,” Latin America analyst María Fernanda Bozmoski argues. Earlier today, Laura Fernández Delgado was sworn in as Costa Rica’s newest president, after she campaigned on a platform of continuity paired with a tougher stance on crime.   READ 3. Reform the Jones Act to lower US energy costs  Amid the energy supply shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the 1920 Jones Act makes it difficult to ship refined oil from the US Gulf Coast to the United States’ Atlantic and Pacific seaboards, raising costs, due to the law’s requirements around US-built and US-owned vessels. Energy analysts David L. Goldwyn, Reid I’Anson, and Andrea Clabough suggest a waiver program that would allow shippers “to use non–Jones Act compliant vessels permanently, as long as they can certify that no alternative compliant vessel was available.”  READ Join our channel today No algorithm, no filters! All the world-class analysis from the Atlantic Council on your phone. Sign up today 4. “There are lots of signs of things coming apart”  That’s the assessment of Russia from former US Ambassador to Ukraine and head of our Eurasia Center John Herbst, speaking at an Atlantic Council event today. The Kremlin has failed to gain net Ukrainian territory lately while suffering casualties approaching 40,000 per month and increasing economic damage from Ukrainian drones and more. “None of this means that Putin is gone tomorrow. But a betting man would not be surprised if his regime were gone in two or three years.”   WATCH 5. After one year of Merz in Germany, questions about how many more will follow  Wednesday marked one year since German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office. Recent polling paints a bleak picture of his future, with a strong majority of Germans dissatisfied with Merz’s government. Phyllis Berry, a former national intelligence officer for Europe at the US National Intelligence Council, argues that without greater economic growth, “pressures could lead to its premature collapse and slide Germany into a crisis of governability.”  READ FUTURE INTEL Managing risk in an era of geopolitical tension  Insurance is all about risk. Specifically, it’s about mitigating risk. In a world swarming with geopolitical risks, how should one begin to assess what is possible? This coming Tuesday, join Lloyd’s of London Chair Sir Charles Roxburgh for an #ACFrontPage conversation on navigating rising geopolitical tensions.  REGISTER Receive this email from a friend? Click to subscribe.   Have feedback? Email our editors. At the Atlantic Council, we provide relevant and authoritative insight at speed and in depth. Engage with our experts in real time by following us on:

John Cookson, AC Intel Anchor

Each week since the start of the Iran war, I’ve used this Friday newsletter to ask the biggest question about the conflict. This week’s question: Will Iran derail next week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping?   In the newest episode of the “So What’s the Strategy” podcast, our Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security head Matthew Kroenig interviews Kurt M. Campbell, former US deputy secretary of state and co-founder of The Asia Group. They discuss how there’s been a lot of media attention about Trump travelling to Beijing while the situation in the Middle East remains so turbulent. But, Kurt argues, it’s also “quite unusual” for Xi to be hosting this meeting, given China’s history of supporting Iran.   “That suggests that both leaders feel that they’ve got important things to do,” he tells Matt. On the US side, Trump is “clearly signaling” his desire to have a good meeting with Xi, Kurt says, with a lot of the US leader’s language “reminiscent of a G-2 approach,” in which global power is negotiated between the United States and China.   But that approach could have its own consequences outside of the room where Xi and Trump meet. Your AC Intel starts there.

1.

“Most countries in the Indo-Pacific are quietly quite anxious”

One major concern ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, Kurt tells Matt, is that “the United States and China will seem to be taking positions over the heads of key allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, even India.” Another worry is that the White House will be “too open and liberal with technology, allowing China access to capabilities” in which the United States still has “clear advantages.”

WATCH

2.

The paradox at the heart of Costa Rica’s political moment

In many countries, voters are punishing incumbents, rejecting traditional political parties, and rewarding candidates who promise disruption over continuity. “Costa Rica appears, at least on the surface, to be an exception,” Latin America analyst María Fernanda Bozmoski argues. Earlier today, Laura Fernández Delgado was sworn in as Costa Rica’s newest president, after she campaigned on a platform of continuity paired with a tougher stance on crime.

READ

3.

Reform the Jones Act to lower US energy costs

Amid the energy supply shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the 1920 Jones Act makes it difficult to ship refined oil from the US Gulf Coast to the United States’ Atlantic and Pacific seaboards, raising costs, due to the law’s requirements around US-built and US-owned vessels. Energy analysts David L. Goldwyn, Reid I’Anson, and Andrea Clabough suggest a waiver program that would allow shippers “to use non–Jones Act compliant vessels permanently, as long as they can certify that no alternative compliant vessel was available.”

READ

Join our channel today No algorithm, no filters! All the world-class analysis from the Atlantic Council on your phone.

Sign up today

4.

“There are lots of signs of things coming apart”

That’s the assessment of Russia from former US Ambassador to Ukraine and head of our Eurasia Center John Herbst, speaking at an Atlantic Council event today. The Kremlin has failed to gain net Ukrainian territory lately while suffering casualties approaching 40,000 per month and increasing economic damage from Ukrainian drones and more. “None of this means that Putin is gone tomorrow. But a betting man would not be surprised if his regime were gone in two or three years.”

WATCH

5.

After one year of Merz in Germany, questions about how many more will follow

Wednesday marked one year since German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office. Recent polling paints a bleak picture of his future, with a strong majority of Germans dissatisfied with Merz’s government. Phyllis Berry, a former national intelligence officer for Europe at the US National Intelligence Council, argues that without greater economic growth, “pressures could lead to its premature collapse and slide Germany into a crisis of governability.”

READ

FUTURE INTEL

Managing risk in an era of geopolitical tension

Insurance is all about risk. Specifically, it’s about mitigating risk. In a world swarming with geopolitical risks, how should one begin to assess what is possible? This coming Tuesday, join Lloyd’s of London Chair Sir Charles Roxburgh for an #ACFrontPage conversation on navigating rising geopolitical tensions.

REGISTER

Receive this email from a friend? Click to subscribe.   Have feedback? Email our editors.

At the Atlantic Council, we provide relevant and authoritative insight at speed and in depth. Engage with our experts in real time by following us on: