Saturday, May 2, 2026

Stop China, Iran and Terrorists From Weaponizing Carfentanil - The nexus of China, terrorism, and dangerous chemicals requires tougher action by U.S. authorities - Anders Corr 5/1/2026|Updated: 5/1/2026

 Thinking About China

Opinion

Stop China, Iran and Terrorists From Weaponizing Carfentanil

The nexus of China, terrorism, and dangerous chemicals requires tougher action by U.S. authorities.
Stop China, Iran and Terrorists From Weaponizing Carfentanil
A sample of carfentanil is being analyzed at the DEA's Special Testing and Research Laboratory in Sterling, Va., on Oct. 21, 2016. Russell Baer/U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration via AP
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Commentary
While fentanyl deaths in the United States decreased in 2025 compared to prior years, carfentanil smuggling and use are on the rise. Carfentanil is approximately 100 times more potent and deadly than fentanyl, with a nearly microscopic dose of as little as 20 micrograms potentially sufficient to kill a human.

The rise of illicit carfentanil smuggling and its links to China and terrorism raises the question of the risk of adversary states using terrorists or criminal proxies to disperse chemical or biological weapons in the United States. International criminal networks are known to be used by U.S. adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Carfentanil could become their weapon of choice.

In 2016, Canadian border officials in Vancouver seized 1 kilogram of carfentanil, which they said was enough for 50 million lethal doses. The package came from China and was labeled “printer accessories.”

The next year, firefighters near Toronto responded to a carbon monoxide alarm and discovered 42 kilograms of carfentanil in a Toronto-area basement. Police found 33 illegal firearms in the home and specialized containment gear that likely originated in China. If pure, 42 kilograms of carfentanil could yield 2.1 billion lethal doses at 20 micrograms a dose, enough to kill every person in the United States six times over. In 2018, a man linked to the home launched a mass shooting attack in Toronto that killed two people and injured 13. ISIS claimed responsibility.

According to reporting by Sam Cooper at The Bureau, former U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) official Donald Im said the carfentanil had potential links to the ISIS terror group, Pakistan, and China. But Canada’s top Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) officials were allegedly influenced by China and denied these links. They apparently withheld intelligence and evidence, blocking a DEA investigation that included an attempt to test the seized carfentanil for chemical similarities to a carfentanil seizure in Atlanta, Georgia, that had been trafficked from Quebec.

Im was quoted as saying, “This is where we believed the RCMP didn’t want anything like that to be disclosed—that there was a potential ISIS sympathizer attempting to use carfentanil as a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), as opposed to just killing somebody with a pistol.”

The case illustrates both the risk of adversary regimes in places like China connecting transnational criminal and terrorist networks to weaponize carfentanil or other substances that could be used as a WMD, and how authorities in allied countries like Canada may attempt to cover up the risk due to Beijing’s political influence.

ISIS has previously developed and deployed chemical weapons in the Middle East, and is not the only terrorist or criminal network with an interest in WMD or access to carfentanil. Al-qaeda has sought chemical weapons for strategic-level attacks. The war with Iran has increased the risk. Experts believe that illicit Canadian and Mexican drug labs have links to China and the Middle East, where Iran’s Hezbollah terrorist organization likely has access to chemical weapons, including the means of delivery via specialized missiles and mortar shells.
The United States and Canada reportedly have hundreds of illegal Iranian immigrants, some of whom are allegedly Iranian agents or parts of Iranian sleeper cells. On April 24, the U.S. Justice Department charged an Iranian national with allegedly smuggling mostly Iranians into the United States from 2022 to 2024.
The risk of Iranian-supported terrorists obtaining chemical weapons, including carfentanil, is of increased concern since Iran started expanding its terrorist network from places like Lebanon and Syria into Europe. If Tehran has already expanded its terrorist activities into Europe, it surely has considered expanding them in the United States.
A Border Patrol agent checks an illegal immigrant wearing two wristbands that Mexican cartels have been using to control human smuggling into the United States, near Penitas, Texas, on March 15, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)
A Border Patrol agent checks an illegal immigrant wearing two wristbands that Mexican cartels have been using to control human smuggling into the United States, near Penitas, Texas, on March 15, 2021. Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times
Given porous U.S., Canadian, and Mexican borders, and the widespread availability of carfentanil, delivery capabilities like drones, and vulnerable water systems, the U.S. government should have a more aggressive surveillance and policing approach to the problem. It would be relatively easy for terrorists to acquire and deploy kilos of carfentanil using crop-dusting drones or planes to dispense the deadly substance into populated areas.
In April, 15 stolen crop-dusting drones were recovered in New Jersey without arrests. That the GPS-guided drones could have been used by terrorists to dispense carfentanil or some other biological or chemical agent alarmed law enforcement. The problem is deeper and more institutional than a single incident.

The New Jersey case demonstrates that U.S. authorities lacked sufficient actionable intelligence to predict the theft or find the thieves after the fact. Matched with extensive smuggling of substances such as carfentanil, the theft is a critical element in one recipe among many for disaster.

The threat of terrorists using carfentanil is enabled by extensive international drug smuggling to supply tens of thousands of U.S. addicts. In 2024, the last full year of data currently available, around 48,000 Americans died of synthetic opioid overdose compared to approximately 76,000 the year prior. Most of these deaths involved fentanyl, some of which was mixed with carfentanil.
As addicts become accustomed to the effects of fentanyl, they often crave more powerful synthetic opioids, leading illicit drug producers to mix in carfentanil. However, as the use of carfentanil increases, overdose mortality spikes. A study of opioid overdoses between the summers of 2016 and 2017 indicates that carfentanil was present in 11 percent of them.
In 2024, the DEA found carfentanil in more than 100 kilograms of various types of drugs, which was approximately 87 kilograms of carfentanil-adulterated drugs found in the prior three years combined. As more addicts die from synthetic opioids, the number left decreases, which decreases later mortality statistics from the drugs. This does not change the intention of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and other U.S. adversaries to punish the United States over issues like tariffs or Taiwan.

Carfentanil was first synthesized in Belgium in 1974 and has been used since 1986 as a tranquilizer for large animals, such as elephants. It is approximately 100 times more powerful and deadly than fentanyl. A low dose of carfentanil can kill an addict, and even more easily kill an average citizen or unaccustomed recreational drug user. The latter two categories have lower tolerance to synthetic opioids.

Carfentanil is sometimes mixed into cocaine, heroin, fentanyl, methamphetamines, and xylazine (a veterinary sedative known on the street as “tranq”), making it difficult for first responders to know which drug they are treating when trying to revive an overdose victim. Those users who die from carfentanil and their friends on scene often have no idea that they took carfentanil along with their intended drug. Death can come within minutes.

Already in the case of fentanyl, a dose equal to just a few grains of salt is enough to kill. In the case of carfentanil, the dosage difference between a high dose and death is almost nil. A nearly microscopic dose of carfentanil, smaller than a single grain of salt, is enough to kill, and naloxone, used as an antidote for fentanyl overdose, is far less effective against carfentanil.

Three or more shots of naloxone are often required to revive a patient who overdoses on carfentanil. In the case of a mass casualty event, emergency personnel would likely not have access to enough naloxone to save any but a minuscule fraction of the cases. And it would be dangerous for them to enter an area contaminated with aerosolized carfentanil without gas masks, oxygen tanks, and hazardous-material suits.

Carfentanil can come as a liquid, powder, gas, or compressed into pill form, and is lethal when ingested, inhaled, injected, or simply applied to the skin. When Russia used carfentanil against 40 Chechen terrorists who had taken 912 hostages in a Moscow theater in 2002, Russian authorities intended the dosage to be just sufficient to incapacitate the terrorists. Naloxone was available afterward to revive the hostages, but approximately 130 of them died anyway.

A comparison of the lethal doses of heroin, carfentanil, and fentanyl. (Drug Enforcement Agency)
A comparison of the lethal doses of heroin, carfentanil, and fentanyl. Drug Enforcement Agency

Carfentanil is banned from the battlefield as a chemical weapon by international convention, but an international treaty against chemical weapons is more of a guidebook than an impediment to terrorists.

Carfentanil and its precursors are typically smuggled from China directly into the United States, or transshipped through Mexico or Canada. In 2015, China finally regulated fentanyl. But it did not add carfentanil and several fentanyl analogs to its list of regulated drugs until February 2017, after extensive pressure from the DEA. These efforts did little other than drive synthetic opioid production in China moderately underground. One report the following month revealed that about 10,000 lethal doses were still offered for export from China to the United States for just $361.

The CCP has, within the last few years, avoided enforcing its regulations on synthetic opioids. It uses the prospect of improved enforcement in China to pressure the United States during negotiations on other issues, including trade and Taiwan. Meanwhile, chemists in China can invent new synthetic opioids that are not yet regulated.

Given Beijing’s continued lack of assistance, Washington should immediately make clear to the regime that any terrorist use of a chemical such as carfentanil on U.S. soil traced back to China, including through precursors, would be attributable as an attack by the regime on the United States. This would be consistent with the U.S. government holding state sponsors of terrorism responsible for the attacks that result, providing a form of extended deterrence and increasing the CCP’s incentives to crack down on China’s illicit manufacture of synthetic opioids and their precursors.

China and other countries, such as Canada, that attempt to hide the severity of the risks posed by carfentanil networks should, at the very least, pay an immediate price in the form of economic sanctions or tariffs.

As fentanyl seizures have decreased over recent years, DEA seizures of carfentanil increased from 54 in 2022 to 145 in 2023 and 1,400 in 2025. Given the illicit nature of its manufacture, mixture into various illicit drugs, varying dosages necessary for a high among various types of users, and astronomical lethality, it should come as no surprise that as smuggling of the drug to the United States increased, carfentanil overdoses nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024 to 413 deaths in 42 states and Washington, D.C.

While the 2025 total is not yet available, state-level mortality and drug seizure results indicate that carfentanil smuggling is still increasing. In 2025, the DEA seized 628,000 carfentanil-laced pills from a single trafficker in Los Angeles, 50,000 at a Washington state gas station, 28,000 in Colorado, and 5,300 sent through the mail to Montana. Many of the seizures are of blue or green pills made to appear like the M30 oxycodone prescription painkiller.

On Feb. 25 of this year, Canadian police arrested four individuals in Quebec who allegedly marketed carfentanil and newer synthetic opioids stronger than fentanyl. According to reporting by Cooper, the group has links to Iran and a Mexican cartel. The police operation seized 600,000 illicit pills from the group two months prior.

This year’s Montreal arrests and theft of crop-dusting drones in New Jersey illustrate an ongoing risk that terrorists could match a substance like carfentanil with technologies that allow for mass dispersal over population concentrations.

It is long past time for authorities to head off the threat with improved surveillance, greater controls on technologies such as drones and crop dusters, increased drug seizures, and the imposition of economic sanctions against countries like China and Canada that do not fully cooperate with U.S. counternarcotics and counterterrorism investigations. These measures will likely require new enabling legislation. Sunset clauses could return U.S. laws to the status quo after the threat has decreased. While civil libertarians may cry foul, the risk is too high to avoid taking aggressive measures.

Action must be taken before terrorists weaponize carfentanil or other dangerous substances against Americans, or the United States risks a massacre.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

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Anders Corr
Anders Corr
Author
Anders Corr has a bachelor’s/master’s in political science from Yale University (2001) and a doctorate in government from Harvard University (2008). He is a principal at Corr Analytics Inc. and publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, and has conducted extensive research in North America, Europe, and Asia. His latest books are “The Concentration of Power: Institutionalization, Hierarchy, and Hegemony” (2021) and “Great Powers, Grand Strategies: the New Game in the South China Sea” (2018).
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