Think Tank Review - December 2025
EU politics and institutions
Think tanks speculate about the paths the EU may choose to take in 2026, based on the Commission’s plans for the year ahead. They argue that 2025 exposed Europe’s dependencies, vulnerabilities and lack of power, and ask whether Europeans can turn 2026 into a year of renewed strength. They also argue that 2026 will require strong joint leadership by national governments and the EU. Reports observe that the 2025 enlargement package signals a shift from rhetoric to resolve, at least for some candidate countries. Nevertheless, this view is not shared by all member states, with some supporting several pre-enlargement reforms so that a larger EU would function and be financed effectively.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Eyes wide shut: how to read China’s playbook in the Western Balkans
European Policy Centre
Two tales in a city: the European Union in 2026
European Union Institute for Security Studies
The 2025 enlargement package signals a shift from rhetoric to resolve – at least for some
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)
Svenska institutet för europapolitiska studier (Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies)
Germany’s role in Europe: great expectations
Centre for European Reform
What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe
Centre for European Reform
The far right’s impact on the EU’s climate agenda
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine and the EU budget for 2028–2034: deep integration but still no membership
EU policies
Papers discuss how the EU can meet its climate and industrial objectives by scaling up the supply of critical raw materials (CRMs). They also note that, given the global nature of CRM supply chains, EU measures should align with bilateral trade instruments, strategic partnerships and wider multilateral efforts. The deployment of the digital euro by 2027 is a strategic necessity according to reports, provided that current shortcomings are addressed: lack of emergency governance, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and silence on the regulation of private actors. Articles delve into estimates on tax evasion in Europe, and the action needed to stabilise debt in advanced countries. They conclude that public debt in those countries remains sustainable, in the sense that the fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt is feasible. On the environment, papers ask whether the second emissions trading system is really the keystone of the European Green Deal (EGD) or the first of the dominoes, in light of downward revisions to climate targets. They state that the EGD now faces urgent challenges, such as mounting opposition from centre-right and right-wing parties, an increasingly confrontational geopolitical context, and tightening financial constraints as we head into 2026. Publications comment on the European Commission's investments in AI factories and gigafactories across Europe and examine whether it can meet its goals, investigating the implications of the factory locations, the type of architecture being built, and the type of AI that is likely to be deployed.
Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space)
LUISS School of European Political Economy
Il tornante della politica industriale europea: Il cambio di paradigma e le sfide future
Institut français des relations internationales
College of Europe
The EU’s strategic rethink of the Internal Market as a challenge to the European Economic Area
Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy)/Open Society Foundations
Raw materials for a resilient Europe: the EU’s strategic partnership with the Western Balkans
Centre for European Policy Studies
Making the green premium work: policy pathways for critical raw materials
Centre for European Policy Studies
For more effective corporate reporting, the EU needs effective governance, not just templates
Centre for European Policy Studies
Designing Horizon Europe for the post-2028 world: how sharper governance can boost Europe’s impact
Österreichische Gesellschaft für Europapolitik (Austrian Society for European Politics)
Mehr Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und eine neue Industriestrategie für Europa: Umsetzung des Draghi-Berichts
Economic and Financial Affairs
Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (German Economic Institute)
EU-Haushalt und Mitgliedstaaten: wer ist Nettozahler, wer Nettoempfänger?
Fondation Robert Schuman
L'Euro numérique à l'aube d'un nouveau monde monétaire (1ère partie)
Fondation Robert Schuman
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Estimating tax evasion in Europe: direct versus indirect survey methods
Centre for European Policy Studies
Tackling the twin paradox of EU financial regulation
Bruegel
What will it take to stabilise debt in advanced countries?
Bruegel
Shifting priorities, slow progress: an analysis of EU tax recommendations
Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs
European Policy Centre
Europe’s competitiveness challenge: ensuring access to transformative therapies in Europe
European Policy Centre
From ransomware to statecraft: protecting EU healthcare in the new landscape
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Between progress and pushback: Latvia and the Istanbul convention
Centre for European Policy Studies
Funding cuts and their implications for sexual and reproductive health and rights
Centre for European Policy Studies
Mainstreaming gender in Horizon Europe: policy progress, challenges, and pathways forward
Bruegel
The solution to Europe’s housing affordability crisis must include building decarbonisation
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Terra Nova
Les virus n’ont pas besoin de visas
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
Environmental Issues
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
ETS2: clé de voûte du Pacte vert européen ou premier des dominos ?
Europe Jacques Delors
Analysing the European ocean pact: origins, commitments and what lies ahead
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Géopolitique du changement climatique
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Environment-related risks in comprehensive security: a framework for foresight and preparedness
Ecologic Institute / Öko-Institut
Temporary carbon units from carbon farming and EU agri-food climate policy
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
The EU in the face of China’s growing role in global and European climate policy
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Tracking the European Green Deal: ambitions meet growing resistance
Council on Foreign Relations
Paris to Kyoto: the history of UN climate agreements
Justice and Home Affairs
European Policy Centre
Towards a fairer EU asylum policy: lessons from the Dublin system for the EU’s solidarity mechanism
Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy)
Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)
Transport / Telecommunications / Energy
Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (German Development Institute)
Center for European Policy Analysis
Europe tech regulation: yes to simplification, no to deregulation
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Centre for European Economic Research)
Institut français des relations internationales
De l'IRA à l'OBBA: les entreprises françaises de l'énergie aux États-Unis
Centre for European Policy Studies
Building a European AI ecosystem of excellence
Centre for European Policy Studies
EU plans for AI (giga) factories: sanctuaries of innovation, or cathedrals in the desert?
Bruegel
What can Europe learn from China’s critical-tech innovation push?
Bruegel
Europe’s electricity capacity mechanisms need to be better coordinated
Bruegel
The case for delaying the application of the EU’s carbon border levy to electricity
Bruegel
Efficiency and distribution in the European Union’s digital deregulation push
Foreign and security policy / Defence
The cybersecurity of governments, companies and individuals in Europe is heavily dependent on the US, articles underline, with US companies dominating the global markets for cybersecurity applications and cyber-threat intelligence. They argue that European decision-makers should act now to reduce these dependencies and protect Europe's cybersecurity in the long term. They debate the idea that European countries must develop a European pillar within NATO, with the US questioning the strength of their commitment to the Atlantic Alliance; Europeans should step up, asserting themselves politically and operationally within NATO. The increase in defence spending, the role of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency, and European strategic autonomy are also discussed. Shaping the defence agenda has become one of the EU's policy priorities, and new instruments offer hope for the development of Europe's arms sector. Reports argue that deterring Russia from military aggression against European NATO members is possible by taking concrete measures, including stronger European support for Ukraine.
European Policy Centre
Dual-use innovation: confronting the challenges and delivering EU security and competitiveness
Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors
Le chemin étroit mais incontournable du Pilier européen de l’OTAN
Brussels Institute for Geopolitics
The Union’s strategic culture at times of war
Fondation Robert Schuman
La dissuasion nucléaire française et l'Europe
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Le grand désordre de la dissuasion nucléaire
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Europe’s cybersecurity depends on the United States
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
The growing importance of AI-enabled weapons and the need for closer EU-Japan cooperation
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
The increase in defence spending, the role of the NSPA and the European strategic autonomy
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Which type of armament cooperation do we want/need? The case of Poland
European Policy Centre
Flying blind: how to prevent Russian GPS operations from causing a European air disaster?
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (Polish Institute of International Affairs)
The new EU defence agenda: moving towards a single market for the arms sector
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Deep precision strike: Europe’s quest for long-range missile capabilities
Istituto Affari Internazionali
EU-NATO cooperation in the Arctic region: climate, energy and security challenges
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Institut Montaigne
[Scénarios] L’OTAN à l’épreuve de la menace russe : l’hypothèse balte
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Basics of a new nuclear strategy for NATO: lessons from the cold war
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Beyond defence: a proactive strategy for the West in the information domain
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Finding the balance: Russia, the South and the future of Spain’s defence
Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)
Norms without strategy: repairing the EU’s broken policy in the South Caucasus
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Global Gateway investments in fragile settings: how to do it?
Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (German Development Institute)
Critical minerals in EU trade discourse: navigating a trilemma in times of geopolitical competition
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Tænketanken EUROPA
Global digital trade is booming, but better coordinated regulation is needed
Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos (Research Institute of the Finnish Economy)
Kaupan vetovoimat murroksessa: mitä geopoliittinen uudelleenjärjestyminen merkitsee Suomelle?
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
The case for a transport ban on Russian oil
Istituto Affari Internazionali
EU-Morocco trade and the Western Sahara: a prolonged struggle between law and realpolitik
LUISS School of European Political Economy
Centre for European Reform
Three hard lessons for European trade
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
EU trade relations with southern Mediterranean partners in times of crisis or conflict
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)
Neue Wege für die EU-Türkei-Wirtschaftsbeziehungen: Zollunion im Wandel?
Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı (Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey)
Two states in Cyprus: a confederation?
European Council on Foreign Relations
The Taiwan test: why Europe should help deter China
Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych (Center for International Relations)
Understanding China: is Europe up to the task?
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
Navigating multipolarity: southeast Europe in the EU’s China strategy
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
European interests between the geo-economics of Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus connectivity
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The African Union-European Union partnership at a crossroads
European Centre for Development Policy Management
A call for realignment on Africa-Europe climate and energy cooperation
LSE IDEAS
LSE IDEAS
Brexit – a critical audit in the cold light of day
Centre for European Policy Studies
Keeping Turkey in the fold: how the West can engage an ambitious middle power
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
Fostering regional cooperation on natural disasters and crisis management in the Mediterranean
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Institut pro evropskou politiku EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy)
Global affairs
A tangible rapprochement between the US and Russia in Eurasia is analysed, focusing on how a stable, mutually acceptable and practically feasible coexistence can be established among the region's main actors, preventing destructive confrontation and allowing for a degree of cooperative security. Other topics discussed include the political crisis in Thailand; trade tools for climate action designed to ensure a secure and stable supply of critical minerals; the importance of the Red Sea for Russia, given that Russian oil exports through the Suez Canal rose from zero at the start of 2022 to over 70% in 2024; Africa's growing interest in BRICS; and what the G20 is doing as well as the absence of President Trump at the G20 summit in Johannesburg, marking a turning point in the history of global economic governance.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Sudan and our collective responsibility to protect
Institute for National Security Studies
The day after Trump: how Israel should prepare for the expected turmoil
Institute for National Security Studies
Regional involvement in the Gaza strip: scenarios and implications
Institute for National Security Studies
The Washington–Riyadh axis: the alliance shaping the Middle East and the challenge for Israel
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
The ASEAN summit 2025 : more than just a stage for Trump
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Nachkriegsordnung für Gaza : ein Neustart unter Aufsicht?
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
Sino-Russian economic relations: dispelling the “no limits” partnership myth
Istituto Affari Internazionali
G7 fragmented: South Korea and the prospects for a G6+
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Opening up the G7 to South Korea to address contemporary global challenges
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)
A path forward for the United States and Russia in Eurasia
European Council on Foreign Relations
Averting West Bank collapse: how to revive Palestinian politics
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
La política exterior de Trump: fuentes, intereses e ideologías
Mercator Institute for China Studies
China's domestic debates under the shadow of geopolitics
Institut français des relations internationales
Crise politique en Thaïlande: la tactique du chaos
Institut français des relations internationales
How to jumpstart economic recovery in Syria? The role of Syrian entrepreneurs in Turkey
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Constantinople – Istanbul : des influences géopolitiques sur le nom des villes
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Nous vivons maintenant dans une Amérique post-constitutionnelle
International Crisis Group
Paradise lost? Ecuador’s battle with organised crime
E3G
Delivering on adaptation finance: the evolving role of the multilateral development banks
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Rethinking UK aid policy in an era of global funding cuts
Brookings Institution
Ελληνικό Ίδρυμα Ευρωπαϊκής και Εξωτερικής Πολιτικής (Hellenic Foundation for European Foreign Policy)
The Venezuelan labyrinth: a crisis reframed
Council on Foreign Relations
Putin’s nuclear offer: how to navigate a new start extension
Council on Foreign Relations
Securing intelligence: why AI security will define the future of trust
Council on Foreign Relations
What is the extent of Sudan’s humanitarian crisis?
Council on Foreign Relations
Council on Foreign Relations
Trade tools for climate action: ensuring a secure and stable supply of critical minerals
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Trump y Gaza: entre la paz impuesta y la reconfiguración de Oriente Medio
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Seizing the moment for North African green industrialisation
Center for European Policy Analysis
War without end: Russia’s shadow warfare
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Rebalancing military spending towards achieving sustainable development
European Policy Centre
Russian negotiating style: when does the West learn?
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Climate change, human mobility and security
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The militarization of technology: preventing diversion and misuse through export controls
Bruegel
Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008: an analysis of a new dataset
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia and the Red Sea since 2022: the wartime engagements of an aspiring major power
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)
Africa’s growing interest in BRICS: between pragmatism and the strive for more sovereignty
Carnegie Europe
Can Turkey cut the Gordian Knot in the Caucasus?
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center) / Hanns Seidel Stiftung
Ukraine’s foreign policy in the context of geopolitical processes
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
More than meets the AI: China’s data centre strategy
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
The G20 without the US: multilateralism after hegemony?
European Policy Centre
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