SCMP New presidents in Washington, Taipei may be worse for Beijing - China has benefited from crises in Ukraine and the Middle East....10 Jan, 2024

SCMP

New presidents in Washington, Taipei may be worse for Beijing

China has benefited from crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, but as both wind down get ready for some dangerous times back in the Pacific

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Alex Lo

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Published: 9:00pm, 10 Jan, 2024

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US President Joe Biden inherited a foreign policy calamity in Afghanistan from his predecessors. He managed to make an exit, even though it was messy and ignominious. But he then became involved in more disasters, in Ukraine and Palestine.

The former has pushed Russia straight into the arms of China, something that has been a cardinal rule of traditional US statecraft to prevent since the Cold War. The latter conflict has earned Biden, not undeservedly, the moniker “Genocide Joe”, with the United States’ arming of Israel.

Both misadventures have distracted Washington from its pivot to Asia, as in containing China, which has enjoyed a measure of respite as a result. President Xi Jinping should count himself fortunate as Beijing was more or less able to concentrate on addressing the troubles the Chinese economy is facing.

Moreover, the leaders in South Korea and Japan, staunch US allies both, have proved to be extremely unpopular at home. That means neither could muster public support for any large-scale or sustained anti-China initiatives in coordination with Washington.

But while Beijing has made the most of its luck and may even pretend to have scored a few diplomatic victories, the good times won’t last.

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Smoke rises following an Israeli bombardment in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel. File photo: AP

The next administration in Washington, whether Democrat or Republican, will want to make up for lost time and recommit to the Asian pivot. This means it will encourage partners and allies in Asia to provoke China, as it has already started with the Philippines under the pro-American Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Washington can easily exploit a mounting maritime dispute between the two Asian countries in the South China Sea to step up naval activities in the Pacific and call for a closer and more aggressive regional alliance against China.

Repeated maritime confrontations at the Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, which are arguably minor sites of little significance, could normally be handled among seasoned diplomats. But these are not normal times, so they have been blown out of all proportion and are likely to be further exploited as Washington has hinted at military support for Manila.

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As US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of these dangerous and unlawful actions. We reaffirm that Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its coastguard – anywhere in the South China Sea.” Some bravado! The intention, however, was clear.

Marcos has warned that his government is considering a tripartite security pact with the US and Japan. This is despite the fact that the US already has a long-standing defence treaty with his country, on which basis the US has strengthened its military assets in northern Philippines, a stone throw away from Taiwan, thus forming a key island chain hub in an offensive posture against coastal China.

Tensions in the South China Sea will likely heat up, as will the Taiwan Strait, if as expected, William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the island’s presidency this weekend.

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An Israeli tank in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli military spokesman said ‘fighting will continue throughout 2024’. Photo: AFP

It has become obvious that the Taiwan Strait and the Luzon Strait, just south of Taiwan, are being linked strategically by US military planners. No one takes Marcos’ promise seriously that military bases in the north will not be used by the US in the event of trouble over Taiwan.

The DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen has made close partnership with the US, and alienation and provocation against mainland China, the hallmark of Taipei’s policy during two presidential terms. With American encouragement, Lai may even double down.

Beijing, of course, has maritime territorial disputes with Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, but these countries have far fewer incentives to provoke China; rather it’s better to keep equidistant from both Beijing and Washington.

As the crises in Ukraine and Palestine wind down, get ready for some tense and dangerous times ahead in the Pacific.

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Alex Lo

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Alex Lo

Alex Lo has been a Post columnist since 2012, covering major issues affecting Hong Kong and the rest of China. A journalist for 25 years, he has worked for various publications in Hong Kong and Toronto as a news reporter and editor. He has also lectured in journalism at the University of Hong Kong.

US-China relations