Nikkei Asia CHINA UP CLOSE Analysis: China's rising star visits U.S. over warming Putin-Kim ties Diplomat Liu Jianchao's trip comes as Xi seeks to 'bind' with Biden over North Korea KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer FEBRUARY 1, 2024 04:00 JST

 Nikkei Asia 

CHINA UP CLOSE

Analysis: China's rising star visits U.S. over warming Putin-Kim ties

Diplomat Liu Jianchao's trip comes as Xi seeks to 'bind' with Biden over North Korea

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer

FEBRUARY 1, 2024 04:00 JST

Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

Following the strikingly abrupt fall of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang last year, the world of Chinese diplomacy is welcoming a new rising star.

His name is Liu Jianchao, the head of the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department (ILD) -- the person in charge of party-led foreign affairs. Although the post is not as prominent as foreign minister, it too ranks at the ministerial level. 

Early this year, Liu made a surprise visit to the U.S., obviously on an important mission from his boss, Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping.

During his relatively long stay, from Jan. 8 to 13, Liu had a surprisingly generous reception. He met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and deputy national security adviser Jon Finer. He also met with key figures from both the Democratic and Republican parties, including local politicians, and members of the business communities in San Francisco, New York and Washington.

Liu is now 60, older than the disgraced Qin, but nonetheless young for a prominent Chinese official. He studied for a year at Oxford University in the U.K. before joining the Foreign Ministry, and later served as ambassador to Indonesia and the Philippines.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (front left) meets with Liu at the State Department in Washington on Jan. 12. They discussed a range of issues including North Korea, Taiwan, Russia's war in Ukraine and the Middle East, a State Department spokesperson said.   © Reuters

During his time as head of the public information office at China's Foreign Ministry, where he was responsible for public relations, he interacted extensively with foreign journalists and others, and was very personable. He is a talented speaker with a fluent command of English.

He also has held prominent positions outside the diplomatic arena. He was assigned to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, which oversees the anti-corruption campaign led by Xi, and several posts in Zhejiang province, where Xi was once the head of government.

Now, as the chief of the ILD, and following the ouster of Qin, once Xi's favorite aide, Liu's mission is to pursue the leader's diplomatic goals. 

His recent U.S. visit "hasn't received a lot of attention, but his important missions to the U.S. have a lot to do with the rapidly closing distance between [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," according to a source well informed on the relationship between China, North Korea and Russia.

Putin meets Kim at Russia's Vostochny Cosmodrome on Sept. 13 in this image released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency. (KCNA via Reuters)

What this means is that cooperation between Russia and North Korea over Ukraine has begun to serve as a convenient way for Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden to "bind." The key to this narrative is recent moves by Russia.

In return for providing North Korea with more missile-related technology than ever before, Russia has secured a path to procuring artillery ammunition, of which it is in extremely short supply in Ukraine, from North Korea. Furthermore, moves toward Russia importing North Korean missiles have emerged. They add up to continent-spanning arms procurement and technology licensing.

Moscow stands to benefit if it can also incite North Korea and trigger turmoil on the Korean Peninsula and elsewhere in Northeast Asia -- if that happens, interest in the Ukraine war will wane in Asia as well as in the U.S. and Europe, and pressure for sanctions against Russia may gradually ebb.

But China is extremely uncomfortable with having its backyard broken into. It cannot allow Russia to run roughshod over its own sphere of influence. Above all, North Korea, which has declared it possesses nuclear weapons, augmenting its nuclear-capable missile arsenal with Russian technology is a major security issue for China.

If North Korea has cruise missiles and even submarine-launched missiles that can be used in actual warfare, those could not only be aimed at the U.S., South Korea and Japan, but also at China next door.

Of course, for Xi, Putin is supposed to be a strategic ally. However, there is also a deep divide between them that others cannot see. And now Putin has even announced that he is prepared to visit North Korea personally in the near future.

"The Chinese leader is trying to put the crisis of the Korean Peninsula, in which Russia is becoming involved, to his own use," according to the source mentioned earlier. The objective of this use is, according to the source, to ease Beijing's extremely tense relations with the U.S.

Biden also does not want to see a major upheaval on the Korean Peninsula this year ahead of the U.S. presidential election. If war breaks out in Northeast Asia on top of the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war, the U.S. military would have to deal with three fronts across the world. This would prove disadvantageous for even the world's best military, dispersing its forces.

Another factor is former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is likely to be Biden's rival in the presidential race. Because of Trump's dramatic meetings with Kim when he was president, he is seen as having a continued good relationship with the North Korean leader. If the Korean Peninsula were to become an issue now, it would furnish prime material for attacks by Trump on Biden. "I can make it work," Trump would likely say.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event in Manassas, Virginia, on Jan. 23.   © Reuters

Xi and Biden are sharply opposed on the issue of Taiwan, but there is a subtle alignment of interests on the Korean Peninsula, and so that is where they can seek some space for cooperation. Dealing with North Korea could indeed become a binder between the U.S. and China.

The fighting in Ukraine, which might seem unrelated to Asia, has now had a considerable impact on Northeast Asia as Putin and Kim agree to arms and technology transfers. The situations on the east and west sides of Eurasia have become interlocked.

Enter the new star of Chinese diplomacy, Liu. His main task as the Communist Party's chief official in charge of party diplomacy is, in fact, diplomacy with North Korea. This is because North Korea is also a one-party state led by a dictatorship. 

In Xi's China, Liu can officially play the role of acting foreign minister in dealing with the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula. Thus his visit to the U.S., which included an important mission to discuss the cooperation between Putin and Kim, fell naturally within the scope of his duties.

Liu emphasized in the U.S. that China has no intention of changing the current international order. This was not done merely out of respect for the U.S. position as world leader, nor was it subtle lip service with the Taiwan issue in mind.

Liu during a Q&A session at the 11th World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 2, 2023.   © AP

The implication was that China would not be willing to jump on the bandwagon of Putin and Kim, who are trying to change the current international order by force, both on the Korean Peninsula and in Ukraine.

It is unusual for the Biden administration to treat the Communist Party's diplomatic head, a person who is not in the Chinese government itself, so generously. It should be noted that parallel to Liu's visit to the U.S., talks between U.S. and Chinese military officials were being held in Washington.

Less than a week after returning from the U.S., Liu met with Ri Ryong Nam, North Korea's ambassador to China, in Beijing on Jan. 19 -- a move that also suggests the purpose of Liu's visit to the U.S. It is likely that they had an important exchange of views in which Liu passed on the thoughts of the Biden administration.

As if to confirm this, another week later, Sun Weidong, China's vice minister of foreign affairs in charge of Korean Peninsula affairs, went to Pyongyang. The urgency of this visit can be seen in the fact that he reportedly had to travel overland, rather than by air, since flights between the two countries are infrequent.

In fact, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho had just visited Beijing in December and met with Sun. In Pyongyang, Sun met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui on Jan. 26 and put forward the idea of "tactical cooperation" between China and North Korea.

What would Chinese-North Korean cooperation, now with the rarely used word "tactical" appended, involve?

Behind the increasingly frequent communications between China and North Korea, there is also a complex antagonism toward Russia hidden in the background.

In parallel with these talks in Pyongyang, there were also developments between the U.S. and China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a Politburo member and Beijing's top diplomat, met with U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Bangkok on Jan. 26 and 27. They agreed that the U.S. and Chinese leaders would hold telephone talks within the next few months.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan in Bangkok on Jan. 27. (Chinese Foreign Ministry via Kyodo)

Initially, it was believed that the main focus of the meeting would be on issues surrounding Taiwan, where the Jan. 13 presidential election ended in victory for Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, and on ship attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

However, judging from the actions of Liu and the Sino-North Korean talks in Pyongyang, it is a good bet that the U.S.-China talks in Bangkok also addressed the situation on the troubled Korean Peninsula and North Korean nuclear and missile issues.

And soon as the U.S.-China talks were over, North Korea took action. The official Korean Central News Agency reported that on Jan. 28, Kim observed a test launch of a new type of submarine-launched strategic cruise missile from North Korea's eastern coast.

The threat of North Korea is growing on the Korean Peninsula. Standing in the shadows is Putin, who has continued the war in Ukraine for nearly two years. Kim is cunningly pulling various strings, weighing Russia against China. 

How will Xi and Biden, who are scheduled to hold phone talks within the next few months, handle this complex situation? Many will be closely watching for answers to that question.

One thing is clear: China's actions involving top diplomat Wang Yi and rising star Liu Jianchao will affect situations in Asia and around the world, and even the future of Ukraine.