Dear friends and colleagues,
I am reaching out to share Leadership Change in Russia, a recent paper Maria Snegovaya and I published as part of CFR’s Center for Preventive Action contingency planning memorandum series.
In this publication, Maria and I explore three possible scenarios for leadership change in Russia: radicalization with an Andropov-type successor, retrenchment with a Krushchev-type successor, and fragmentation. We identify possible indicators of leadership change and lay out the potential risks and opportunities for the United States and its allies associated with each scenario.
The United States does not have the power to, and should not, prevent leadership change in Russia. However, we argue it is imperative for the United States and its allies to prepare for possible contingencies in anticipation of Russian leadership change. Doing so will allow for a coordinated approach that mitigates risks of division while simultaneously incentivizing a preferred scenario.
We look forward to your thoughts and feedback. Thank you for reading!
Best wishes,
Liana Fix
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