GZERO DAILY 11/8/2023 What Bibi means by “indefinite,” Zelensky’s powerful rival, Darfur suffers again amid violence

 GZERO  DAILY

11/8/2023

What We’re Watching: What Bibi means by “indefinite,” Zelensky’s powerful rival, Darfur suffers again amid violence

Netanyahu flirts with a lengthy stay in Gaza

Less than two weeks since Israel launched a ground invasion of Gaza, it appears that Israeli troops won’t be leaving the coastal enclave anytime soon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told ABC News that Israel will take “overall security responsibility” for Gaza for an “indefinite period” to prevent further Hamas attacks.

This raises a slew of questions and concerns about Israel’s goal of rooting out Hamas and the potential for sparking even more violence from Hamas and other Iranian proxies. Will this mean a purely military presence, or is it a slippery slope to the return of Israeli settlements in Gaza?

Bibi’s announcement “raised red flags in Arab capitals,” and especially in Cairo, says Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute.

Israel’s goal: Bibi says the aim is to eradicate Hamas and rescue the roughly 240 people taken hostage by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack. But completely destroying Hamas could prove extremely difficult, as the violence is likely to inspire the next generation of anti-Israel fighters. Meanwhile, Israeli troops will face intense urban fighting and contend with the militants’ use of an intricate system of tunnels.

How Hamas allies might respond: An indefinite Israeli presence in Gaza will “definitely catalyze” a Hamas and Islamic Jihad-led insurgency and lead “to a years-long bloody and sustained conflict,” Slim warns.

In this way, Netanyahu may be falling into a trap. He’s poised to give Hamas exactly what it wants, says Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, which is “a long-term ground presence that can serve as the target of a sustained insurgency.”

Hamas hopes to “start picking off Israeli soldiers individually and in small groups, killing and capturing them, and bleeding Israel horrendously,” he adds, noting how this will help the militant group portray itself as the rightful leader of the Palestinian national movement — as opposed to Palestinian leaders in the occupied West Bank “who sit at the table listening to crickets and waiting for negotiations that never take place.”

The bottom line: Bibi may just have opened the door for a renewed Israeli military occupation of Gaza, sinking the prospect of a two-state solution.

Are divisions emerging in Ukraine’s politics?

Ukraine has elections scheduled for 2024, but President Volodymyr Zelensky doesn’t believe they should take place. “This is a time for defense,” he warned, “a time for battle, upon which the fate of the state and its people depend.” Zelensky also rejected any suggestion that the failure of Kyiv’s five-month-old counteroffensive to score major gains against Russian invaders leaves Ukraine’s war at a stalemate.

With those convictions in mind, it’s easy to see why Zelensky might be upset with recent public comments from his top field commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, who told The Economist that “Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” Success against Russia, Zaluzhny insists, depends on innovations in what is already state-of-art Western weaponry Ukraine has received or is expecting soon.

Zelensky knows that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has no interest in talks or concessions, and he argues that Ukraine’s American and European backers shouldn’t push him to offer compromises with no hope of Russian reciprocity.

Zelensky may also fear that Zaluzhny could become a powerful political rival. The general’s reputation for modesty and frank talk makes him and the military popular – an October Gallup poll of Ukrainians put confidence in the armed forces at 95% – and he’s the man leading the war effort day to day. Zelensky, who also still polls above 80%, would prefer that Ukraine speak with one voice — and, of course, that the voice be his.

Sudan’s civil war rages through Darfur

Sudan’s civil war reached a grim turning point this week as Rapid Support Forces paramilitaries solidified their control over the Darfur region in Western Sudan. The RSF has been accused of war crimes there as part of its conflict with the Sudanese government.

The background: Back in 2019, the Sudanese military and the RSF cooperated to topple long-serving dictator Omar Bashir, but they fell out over how to work together thereafter. In April of this year, clashes between them erupted into a full-blown war that has left thousands dead and driven more than 5.7 million people from their homes. More than a million have fled to neighboring Chad, one of Africa’s poorest countries.

In Darfur specifically, the RSF and allied Arab militias have been accused in recent months of targeted massacres of the Masalit, a local Black African ethnic group that is a minority within the wider Arab-dominated Sudanese state. RSF fighters have also been accused of systematically abducting and raping women and girls in Darfur.

Flashback: Twenty years ago, Darfur was the scene of gruesome atrocities in which the Sudanese government and local Arab militias (including the fearsome janjaweed horsemen) slaughtered more than 170,000 Masalit in response to a rebellion against the central government. The US government labeled that campaign a “genocide” in 2004.

Peace talks have failed. There are various cross-cutting initiatives led by the African Union, Egypt, the US and Saudi Arabia, and South Sudan. Several ceasefires have fallen apart already. Meanwhile, Sudan’s civilians continue to pay the price.

The UN warned on Tuesday that the deepening war had “turned homes into cemeteries.”