- Think tank review
- 10 March 2026
Think Tank reports on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine
10.3.2026
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Mapping the TechMil war: eight lessons from the Ukrainian battlefield
This report traces the evolution of key technologies that have emerged or developed during the four years of the war in Ukraine. It aims to analyse the lessons that NATO can draw from this evolution in order to strengthen the country’s defensive capabilities and prepare for a modern, large‑scale conventional war.
Atlantic Council
After four years of Russia’s invasion, time to stop underestimating Ukraine
According to the article, Russia’s full-scale invasion has lasted far longer than the Kremlin anticipated and has revealed fundamental miscalculations about Ukraine’s resilience and military capabilities. The article highlights how Ukrainian resistance, military reforms since 2014 and rapid defence-technology innovation have enabled the country to withstand Russia’s much larger armed forces. It also stresses Ukraine’s growing expertise in drone warfare and its increasingly important role in European security.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Czwarty rok wojny w analizach Ośrodka Studiów Wschodnich
The author argues that Ukraine has survived the fourth year of the war, despite Russia maintaining the initiative and making limited advances without achieving major strategic results. Ukraine has managed to hold its defensive lines and prevent a collapse of the front. During the winter of 2025/2026, Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to trigger a humanitarian crisis. At the same time, renewed negotiations initiated by Donald Trump have not produced results, because Russia is maintaining its maximalist demands.
European Policy Centre
Four years of war: Ukraine has held the line. It is time for Europe to secure the future
Four years ago, Russia launched a brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aiming to subjugate a sovereign state and challenge European security. This compendium marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion by documenting ongoing aggression, evolving European support and the resilience of a nation under siege. It offers both reflection on and analysis of a war that continues to shape the future of Europe and beyond.
Centre for European Reform
Four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: four lessons for European leaders
The author argues that Europeans can still learn the right lessons from the four years of war in Ukraine, and act on them. He suggests that US attempts to make ‘peace’ with Russia at Ukraine’s expense will not deliver a durable settlement; Europe, including Ukraine, has a better chance of achieving a lasting peace by tilting the balance of economic and military advantage against Putin.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Europe needs a military operations center in Ukraine
The briefing proposes that the continent’s military forces should build a command centre in Ukraine to help fight Russia and form the nucleus of a post-US operational command, as Russia wages both a brutal war in Ukraine and a persistent hybrid war across Europe. This grey-zone conflict spans air, space and cyber domains, using proxies to destabilise and undermine European resolve, and will intensify rather than cease after any peace deal. Western capitals must prepare for the ‘war after the war’, recognising that Russia regards the end of hostilities as no such thing.
Atlantic Council
Vladimir Putin is trapped in a war he cannot win but dare not end
The paper argues that ongoing negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have achieved little progress, largely because the Kremlin continues to pursue maximalist objectives. It also points to the strategic deadlock facing Moscow, considering the heavy battlefield losses and limited territorial gains, despite years of fighting.
Vox Ukraine
The mathematics of war: how to tell real losses from propaganda
Both Russia and Ukraine classify information about their own losses, while actively publishing data on the enemy’s losses. In this “fog of war,” where every figure becomes a tool of information warfare, uncovering the truth requires scientific methods. This article examines, for example, who is lying, who is exaggerating, and where an objective picture can be found. It focuses on three key questions: whether Russian military briefings can be trusted, the war’s real cost to Russia and what can reliably be said about Ukraine’s losses.
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center)
Reintegration of Ukrainians: cultural-identity and socio-economic aspects of return
This analytical report aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the conditions, barriers and potential for the return of Ukrainians and to make recommendations for the state, local self-government, international partners and civil society. Particular attention is paid to the interconnection between cultural-identity and socio-economic factors, as the balance between them will determine the success of future reintegration and Ukraine’s ability to leverage the experience gained for post-war recovery and development.
Council on Foreign Relations
The briefing states that as the war in Ukraine continues, the country’s humanitarian needs are mounting, while funding is vanishing. The collapse of key aid programmes has exposed a critical gap in the international response – one that the United Nations cannot fill alone.
Danish Institute for International Studies
Forced displacement from Ukraine: the potential role of migration in Ukraine's future reconstruction
The brief states that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the most significant population movements in recent European history. It adds that the loss of national population is not just a demographic challenge, but is also a human capital problem that presents challenges for Ukraine’s reconstruction and future development.
Danish Institute for International Studies
Resilient action in wartime: diaspora engagement by Ukrainians in Denmark
The note points out that regardless of how the war ends, Ukraine’s diaspora will be an important actor in the country’s future. Sustained and long-term support for diaspora engagement is therefore critical for Ukraine’s reconstruction, development and cultural survival.
Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations
Legitimacy under fire: how Ukraine governs without elections
Ukraine is facing a legitimacy dilemma. With war precluding elections, Kyiv must govern without electoral renewal, even as the need for democratic legitimacy grows, the author notes. He adds that the government’s legitimacy is the basis for Ukraine’s wartime resilience and is essential for credible peace negotiations and EU accession. In 2025, non-electoral accountability worked when civil society and EU conditionality jointly reversed setbacks in the fight against corruption. Yet, accountability remains reactive, and centralised power requires safeguards. For Brussels, safeguarding legitimacy means opening negotiations on cluster 1 (fundamentals) to enshrine rule-of-law benchmarks, and applying strict conditionality. For Kyiv, this means protecting state institutions.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine 2036: how today’s investments will shape tomorrow’s security
The report states that Ukraine is at a turning point, and its future will be decided now, just as Europe must decide its own future. By 2036, either Ukraine becomes a secure, integrated part of a European economic space with a predictable flank, or Europe faces a hardened grey-zone frontier at the EU’s border that drains budgets and political bandwidth.
Council on Foreign Relations
The briefing points out that Ukraine’s wartime innovation has transformed its defence industry into a rapidly scaling hub for drones, autonomy and battlefield technology. Integrating Ukrainian firms into European and NATO procurement is not an act of charity but a strategic investment in collective security, as the report highlights.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Pozorny „rozejm energetyczny”. 1441. dzień wojny
The authors argue that the “energy truce” between Russia and Ukraine is largely symbolic, as both sides continue attacking energy infrastructure. Russia carries out missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, while Ukraine targets Russian refineries and fuel facilities. On the frontline, Russia maintains the initiative and makes slow advances without a strategic breakthrough. The war therefore continues as a conflict of attrition.
Real Instituto Elcano
Ucrania y la Administración Trump: la guerra como prueba del liderazgo estadounidense
The briefing notes that the war in Ukraine has become a major test of US leadership, exposing the importance of industrial capacity, political cohesion and strategic credibility. It argues that the Trump administration has shifted the US approach from open-ended military support toward a more transactional strategy, focused on negotiations and burden-sharing with allies.
Atlantic Council
Ukraine’s women may hold the key to the country’s future security
The briefing notes that Russia’s full-scale invasion has accelerated changes in Ukrainian society, particularly regarding the role of women in national defence and resilience. It highlights women’s increasing participation in the armed forces, civil defence and humanitarian efforts, as well as their growing contribution to reconstruction and governance. The briefing argues that Ukraine’s long-term security will depend on mobilising the country’s full human potential, which will include integrating women more systematically into defence planning and institutional leadership.
Brookings Institution
Stiffening European sanctions against the Russian oil trade
According to this paper, tipping the balance in the ongoing war in favour of Ukraine requires heightened pressure on the Russian economy and its sources of tax revenues. It is suggested that carefully coordinated, specifically targeted and legally unassailable sanctions by the UK and Europe would give Ukraine greater leverage at the negotiating table, increasing the chances of a just and lasting peace.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine’s trade and investment structures over the past three years and assesses their implications for Ukraine’s future competitiveness and for EU-Ukraine economic relations, with particular attention to the EU’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented global economy. It shows a rapid reorientation of Ukraine’s goods exports towards the EU, driven by emergency trade liberalisation and alternative logistics routes, alongside a marked decline in exports to China.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Scaling innovation: Ukraine’s military and defense-industrial integration in the new context
The policy briefing describes how four years of full-scale war, marked by widespread destruction and human loss, have made Ukraine a battlefield, but also a laboratory of defence innovation, where agility, improvisation and speed of adaptation are essential for survival. The defence-industrial integration of Ukrainian innovation with European production and funding capacity bears huge potential for Europe’s collective security. Increased cooperation would give the EU and Ukraine greater autonomy from the US and improve future deterrence against Russian aggression.
Real Instituto Elcano
Ucrania, entre la guerra y la paz injusta
The briefing notes that Ukraine faces a dilemma between a prolonged war that exhausts the country and its allies and a negotiated peace that may not fully meet its strategic objectives. It argues that the conflict reflects incompatible political aims, with Russia seeking to block Ukraine’s Western integration, while Kyiv fights for sovereignty and security guarantees. The analysis highlights growing war fatigue and emphasises that Europe could influence the outcome through security guarantees, EU integration and reconstruction support.
Tænketanken EUROPA
From emergency aid to defence integration: Europe's structural turn in Ukraine support
As US support falters, Europe is shifting from ad hoc aid to long-term defence integration, reshaping the durability and scale of support for Kyiv. The article states that Europe has now assumed the primary burden of support, European support is growing but remains unevenly distributed and the most important shift is structural, not just financial.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Tschechiens Verteidigungs- und Ukrainepolitik unter der neuen Regierung Babiš – ein erster Eindruck
The security policy environment in which the Czech Republic has found itself since Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has led to a change in defence planning in recent years. As the briefing argues, under the government of Petr Fiala, the Czech Republic was prepared to gradually increase defence spending and left no doubt about its support for Ukraine. It concludes that the new coalition government is charting a new course in many areas.
Центързаизследваненадемокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Strategic hinterland: China’s support for Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine
This report examines the evolving role of the People’s Republic of China in enabling Russia’s war economy in occupied Ukrainian territories. Chinese state-owned enterprises and private corporations have expanded their activities across Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk by supplying heavy machinery and participating in strategic infrastructure projects that reinforce Russia’s military and economic presence in these regions.
Real Instituto Elcano
La guerra en Ucrania, el mito fundacional de la nueva entidad rusa
The war in Ukraine has become a founding myth of a redefined Russian national identity, structured around entrenched anti-Western narratives and a sense of historical grievance. The article argues that anti-Westernism has shifted from rhetoric to a core organising principle of Russia’s political and social system, strengthening regime resilience and public willingness to accept long-term sacrifice. It also highlights how wartime dynamics, economic adaptation despite sanctions, cultural reaffirmation and tighter state narrative control are consolidating a new “social contract” around the state.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
Behind the ballots and the bluster: decoding votes on Ukraine resolutions at the UN
This report discusses a clustering of voting patterns, which can help identify both the nations that hold fixed positions and those who vary in their voting behaviour and stated positions. A better understanding of the motivations behind these positions is crucial for a diplomatic strategy that aims to convince them to support Ukraine.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
Ukraińskie ataki na ropociąg CPC: perspektywy sektora naftowego Kazachstanu
Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have disrupted a key route used to export Kazakh oil through Russia. The situation has highlighted Kazakhstan’s strong dependence on this pipeline for most of its oil exports. Limited alternative routes make it difficult to redirect supplies quickly. Prolonged disruptions could affect Kazakhstan’s economy and reshape its export strategy.
09.02.2026
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Winning by losing: the logic of attrition in the Russo-Ukrainian war
The war in Ukraine has become a test of Russia’s structural resilience, revealing recurring patterns of imperial overreach and internal weaknesses, the paper states. Despite tactical adjustments, Russia faces economic stagnation, demographic decline and rising tensions within its elites. These trends suggest that the war's outcome could depend on the internal stability of the Russian regime, making a negotiated settlement a “potential strategic necessity”.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
The Trump administration and the Russia-Ukraine war: in search of an agreement with Moscow
The commentary examines the Trump administration’s recent engagement in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and presents three possible scenarios predicting Washington’s policy on the war in Ukraine.
International Crisis Group
Amid Ukraine’s battlefield struggles, Zelenskyy’s domestic legacy is a work in progress
The report points out that, since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has faced domestic political and governance challenges, even under fire. However, the country’s political truce will not last forever. It suggests that the president should begin laying the groundwork for the country’s future and maintain both signals and actions that clearly demonstrate his commitment to democratic, rights-respecting governance.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
You only live twice: financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. According to the paper, the earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU and NATO offers a template that relies on massive foreign direct investment and public structural funds. This approach could be further refined by the Ukrainian government as a historic opportunity for Ukraine to survive and prosper.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
The European Union and the war in Ukraine: more money, but not more Europe
Despite the direct threat from Russia, EU member states have proven unwilling to harness their union to ensure a common defence and instead have responded individually, the brief states. It analyses the drivers of military aid to Ukraine and argues that the EU, as a single institution, will likely be reduced to a peripheral role in providing military defence and national security for Europe.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Russia, Europe and the danger of strategic reassurance
European debates about the perception of Russia’s threat are often framed as a binary choice. On the one hand, alarmist voices warn of an imminent military danger requiring rapid mobilisation. On the other, narratives of reassurance highlight Russia’s economic weakness, demographic decline and military shortcomings in Ukraine, concluding that European fears are overstated. The author adds that both positions are analytically insufficient, but for different reasons. Alarmism misrepresents real threats, while reassurance misdiagnoses them entirely. Alarmist assessments are not necessarily wrong in their basic diagnosis that Russia constitutes a strategic threat.
Center for Social and Economic Research
The publication examines how much fiscal room Russia still has under wartime conditions. It focuses on public finances, debt, inflation and the broader macroeconomic effects of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.
15.01.2026
Bruegel
The European Union and the war in Ukraine: more money, but not more Europe
This paper analyses the drivers of rearmament and especially military aid to Ukraine, and how such aid is increasingly being provided by ‘coalitions of the willing’ in different iterations, consisting of only subsets of EU countries and other likeminded non-EU countries, and increasingly involving direct integration with the Ukrainian military-industrial sector. It argues that this will likely leave the EU with a continuing peripheral role in the military defence and national security considerations of both EU countries and Europe more broadly.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Fuel, fear and falsehoods: defending Europe and Ukraine from Russia’s hybrid energy war
In the fourth year of its war against Ukraine, Moscow continues to pummel the country’s infrastructure with missiles and drones. The article suggests that with these ‘terror attacks on the energy grid’, the Kremlin is simultaneously waging its hybrid war on the EU: targeting critical infrastructure, launching drone incursions and conducting massive disinformation campaigns.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Russia’s nuclear signalling in the war against Ukraine: a chronology of the Biden era
This research provides a highly detailed chronology of Russia’s nuclear signalling in the war against Ukraine, i.e. from autumn/winter 2021-2022 until January 2025. It aims to compile Russia’s (and Belarus’) nuclear narratives, alongside the responses of the United States and its key NATO allies.
Latvijas Ārpolitikas institūts (Latvian Institute of International Affairs)
The drone revolution: lessons from Ukraine
The report states that in November 2023, Valery Zaluzhnyi, then commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, declared that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict had reached a deadlock as the ‘drone revolution’ reshaped the dynamics of warfare along the front lines. This article is meant as a discussion on the drone revolution, establishing its key characteristics, while also examining Europe’s response to these developments.
Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies)
A devastating blow to Kyiv’s energy infrastructure: day 1406 of the war
This briefing note highlights the destruction caused by Russian bombs. In particular, the energy infrastructure was one of Russia’s main targets, with blasts striking directly behind the front line during the holiday season. Among other things, the bombing damaged thermal power plants in several Ukrainian sites.
Brussels Institute for Geopolitics
Towards the end of Ukraine's ordeal – or into a new nightmare?
The report states that amid a maelstrom of peace plans, ceasefire negotiations, leaks and reactions, predicting the war's outcome is a bold endeavour as fighting intensifies. The toughest issues for any peace plan are territorial decisions and security guarantees for Ukraine. Among the 28 points allegedly agreed by Russia and the United States, the most concerning include Ukraine's proposed disarmament, interference in its political sovereignty, and financial predation.
Center for European Policy Analysis
A strategic trap? The outline Ukraine peace deal
This briefing note emphasises that Europe and Ukraine should work hard to avoid a bad peace that puts the continent’s security at risk from Russia. The peace proposal is revealed as a highly politicised Kremlin effort to cement gains, fracture Ukraine internally, and reconfigure Europe’s security landscape to Russia’s long-term advantage.
Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)
Frontline aid: evolving humanitarian challenges in Ukraine
This report examines humanitarian security practices in Ukraine from 2022 until early 2025, tracking adaptation to technological warfare and the systematic withdrawal of funding. It notes that the sustainability of principled humanitarian action in protracted, high-intensity warfare without commensurate international support remains in question.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Vidéos du front: l’Ukraine au défi de la transparence
This article states that, for the first time on a battlefield, soldiers film and continuously broadcast videos recorded by themselves, a practice that has been ongoing for more than three years on the Ukrainian front. It highlights that this unprecedented practice may help to better convey the daily life of combatants and mobilise the rear. Furthermore, the article notes that it could help maintain stronger cohesion among the population in the face of the aggressor.
Центр Разумкова (Razumkov Center)
Securitisation of state policy and society in Ukraine
The authors offer a systemic structured approach to analysing and synthesising national security systems, propose a conceptual framework as a component of interfaces in interdisciplinary research on security issues, and come up with methodological recommendations for threat analysis and the development of countermeasures.
Vox Ukraine
From idea to agenda: how government acts move forward
Every day, the Ukrainian government adopts decisions that directly affect businesses, citizens and the national budget. This article traces the full lifecycle of rulemaking – from the initial concept to the Cabinet vote, it examines the problems highlighted by experts and international organisations and outlines potential ways to improve the process.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ukraine’s regional shift: realignments in wartime and beyond
This paper examines the multidimensional consequences of Ukraine’s wartime transformation, tracing how people, capital, infrastructure and political influence are being redistributed across the country. Many of these shifts, such as the movement of people and businesses away from frontline regions, are unsurprising outcomes of the war that reflect the resilience of Ukraine’s society and economy.
Rand Europe
Looking ahead: enablers of innovation and scale for the future of Ukraine's defence-industrial base
This article states that Ukraine’s defence-industrial base has developed during conflict and is setting global standards for innovation and technology iteration. It highlights that Ukraine’s competitive advantage stems from its skilled and combat-experienced workforce, societal buy-in to defence and alignment between government strategy and defence-industrial planning.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Humanitarian demining and Ukraine’s recovery: lessons yet to learn
This policy brief examines how landmine action underpins Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic renewal. It outlines the current scale of contamination and the national humanitarian demining strategy. The brief also reviews international experience from countries around the world, discussing the economic recovery driven by demining and the economic efficiency of mine action.
Vox Ukraine
Can AI help Ukraine’s mental health crisis? New evidence on digital support during war
As the full-scale war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, new nationally representative data reveal a silent mental health crisis hiding beneath the surface of resilience. Findings reveal that Ukraine’s mental health challenge is not only one of need but of recognition, access and trust, raising urgent questions about how to build affordable, stigma-free and scalable support systems, with AI chatbots offering one potential solution.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Strengthening human capital: how Ukraine and Moldova can retain and reconnect their students
As more young people from Ukraine and Moldova choose to study abroad, the question of whether internationally educated youth will return home has significant implications for demographic sustainability and economic growth. This brief presents findings from a survey of young people from Ukraine and Moldova. It outlines their motivations and considerations when deciding whether to study in their home countries or abroad, as well as what it would take for states to transform the potential ‘brain drain’ into a ‘brain gain’.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Why Ukraine’s communities keep wasting recovery opportunities
The paper states that the ReBuild Ukraine 2025 fair, held in Warsaw, revealed that many Ukrainian municipalities were unprepared, with only about 100 hromadas – Ukraine’s territorial self-governing units – and 19 stands attending. The scale of the event and the number of international participants, investors and donors were immense, but this did not compensate for the fact that a significant part of Ukrainian municipalities arrived unprepared.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Russian sanctions: evasion in Europe
This report maps firm-level sanctions-evasion pathways and trade patterns and sets out an upgraded enforcement agenda: establishing an EU centre of gravity for sanctions modelled on the US Office of Foreign Assets Control; consolidating beneficial-ownership transparency under the Anti-Money Laundering Authority; designating Eurasian Economic Union evasion hubs as high-risk jurisdictions; and embedding sanctions and anti-money-laundering chapters in EU trade agreements, supported by effective monitoring mechanisms.
Centre for European Policy Studies
One of the major policy dilemmas of the past few weeks has been how the EU can continue to fund Ukraine’s war effort and reconstruction.This briefing paper argues that there is another cleaner, less complex solution in the form of a revenue-based special purpose vehicle (SPV), which would only mobilise net extraordinary revenues generated by immobilised Russian assets. Such a solution would deliver substantial upfront funding to Ukraine while avoiding the systemic and geopolitical challenges of the proposed reparation loan and would go a long way towards allaying Belgium’s concerns and ensuring that the stability of the wider global financial system is not compromised.
Institut pro evropskou politiku EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy)
After USAID: what does Czech experience show about Europe’s Ukraine aid
Europe is closing out 2025 in the same strategic debate that defined its beginning, albeit now under conditions of significantly heightened uncertainty and tension. This briefing paper argues that the continent is striving to define its own strategic autonomy while simultaneously seeking a response to the diplomatic ‘Blitzkrieg’ coming from Washington, even as decisions are still being made on the terms of a just peace in Ukraine and on the future security architecture of the wider European space.
Rand Europe
Tooling up together: how Europe and Ukraine can improve defence industrial collaboration
This report presents the findings of research on international defence cooperation. It addresses four key questions regarding how Ukraine can improve defence industrial collaboration with its European partners, drawing on open-source research and semi-structured interviews with experts from the European defence industrial sector.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
This note analyses how the EU has evolved as a crisis management actor outside its borders in an era of a full-scale war in Europe and a shifting international order. It takes stock of the key developments in the EU’s political priorities and policy capabilities regarding crisis management and security policy following the escalation of the war in Ukraine in 2022. It also notes the dominance of broad changes in Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) crisis management.
Bruegel
How resilient is Russia’s economy after four years of war?
From 2022-2025, the Russian economy demonstrated resilience despite the increasing costs of the war in Ukraine and the extensive economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the coalition of Western countries. However, the associated fiscal and quasi-fiscal costs have grown significantly and started to challenge macroeconomic and financial stability. Inflation has been well above the Bank of Russia’s target. The note adds that the long-term perspectives look much worse.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La identidad nacional rusa y la perpetuidad del conflicto de Ucrania
The author argues that, from a constructivist perspective, the pursuit of a renewed Russian national identity as the driving force behind Putin’s ambitions would justify the instrumentalisation of the invasion of Ukraine as a project of identity reconstruction. He claims that the Russian leader appears to be resorting not only to policies of censorship and selective repression, but also to the construction of a historical ‘pedigree’ aimed at legitimising foreign policy and restoring international prestige.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Faltering ceasefires as substitutes for peace agreements: the cases of Gaza, Ukraine and Myanmar
This paper unpacks current knowledge on ceasefire mediation, transitional security arrangements and monitoring mechanisms, including the use of technology in contemporary conflicts. It then examines how ceasefires have been used in three contemporary contexts: Gaza, Myanmar and Ukraine. It also outlines which elements of ceasefire agreements are determined by the conflict parties themselves and which aspects can be shaped by external actors.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
From the Donbas to Africa: how returning fighters could fuel a new mercenary wave
The aim of this briefing paper is to draw attention to two possible scenarios in the aftermath of Russia’s war against Ukraine. First, the deeply challenging demobilisation process of possibly more than half a million battle-hardened soldiers, many suffering from trauma, in fragile and ravaged societies, implying new security risks and difficulties in rebuilding peace in Ukraine. Second, the risk that the massive number of soldiers will lead to the creation and recruitment of, respectively, new mercenary groups and private military companies.
10.12.2025
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Ein fehlgeleiteter „Friedensplan“ und seine Folgen
Foreign policy leaders from several Western countries have averted the worst. According to this brief, the Russian-American 28-point plan for Ukraine, which lacked the potential to end the conflict but instead sought to reward Russian aggression, will not be implemented. Consequently, it cannot form the basis for a new world order founded on a balance of power – as the chief negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, apparently envisioned.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The US-Russia peace plan: a colonial deal in 28 points
This article points out that the US-Russian 28-point plan for Ukraine, in its current form, is less a peace deal than an understanding between two powers acting upon a colonialist logic. Russia would be given more Ukrainian territory than it now controls, along with sanctions relief, legal immunity and international rehabilitation, while Ukraine would be left more exposed to future attacks. The US would profit from reconstruction by using Russian assets currently held under EU control, while Europe, forced to support the process financially, would become systemically more fragile.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The Kremlin sets its sights on Kyiv: the bluff behind Russia’s ‘peace plan’
The author argues that the 28-point ‘peace plan’ is structurally doomed. Ukraine cannot cede unoccupied Donetsk territory or accept military limits; removing these demands in turn would make it unacceptable to Russia. Moscow aims to split the US from Ukraine and Europe, weaken European cohesion, reduce the latter’s military support, isolate Kyiv on the battlefield and ultimately try to capture the capital. Europe should assume responsibility. Moreover, the article states that European states should confront Trump’s stance by fully backing Ukraine, unfreezing Russian assets and massively investing in Ukraine’s military as a commitment to continental defence.
Council on Foreign Relations
Is Trump’s Ukraine peace deal a Faustian bargain?
As the brief outlines, President Trump's 28-point peace plan, modelled after his Gaza proposal, raises concerns over ‘territorial concessions’ and ‘limitations on Ukraine's military’, while offering vague ‘security guarantees’. It allows the Kremlin to up the pressure on Ukraine and avoid further pressure from the United States and Europe. This plan comes at the worst possible time for Ukraine and its partners, as the sanctions bill in the US Congress is finally making some progress after months of waiting, and simultaneously, the Europeans are set to engage in much more serious deliberations on the use of frozen Russian assets in the coming months.
Center for European Policy Analysis
The paper examines the consequences and costs of a hurried peace settlement in Ukraine. It argues that Putin’s aggression is not solely about Ukraine, but about building a more Russia-friendly Europe. A quick ‘peace’ between Russia and Ukraine would not address Russia’s escalating shadow war against Europe’s democracies.
Carnegie Europe
Ukraine: between a rock and a hard place
This commentary argues that the European allies once again find themselves on the sidelines as Ukraine tries to salvage something from a messy and potentially dangerous peace plan. It will fall on Kyiv and Brussels to ensure that no negotiated ceasefire leaves the door open to renewed Russian attack.
CEDOS
Three years of full-scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions
This study explains how the war affects emotional states, everyday lives and routines, public opinion, interpersonal relationships, socioeconomic situations, employment, and civil activity. The scale of these changes is unprecedented for both Ukraine and Europe in the last few decades. At the same time, these changes will affect the future of social institutions in post-war Ukraine and its further development in general. Capturing and conceptualising these changes allows us to obtain data both for conducting future research on Ukrainian society after the war and for planning transformative changes.
Vox Ukraine
Diplomacy on the ground: how Ukrainian cities became actors in international politics during the war
After more than three years of full-scale war, international cooperation is no longer the sole responsibility of the government or diplomatic institutions. The publication notes that cities now also play a significant role in shaping foreign policy. Communities that confront the consequences of war every day – destroyed infrastructure, waves of displaced people, and economic challenges – have become active players in international relations. Developing international ties at multiple levels enables additional assistance to be secured, experiences to be shared, and Ukraine’s visibility in the world to be strengthened.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Saving lives during war: how to make evacuation messages more effective
This controlled survey of 2 006 Ukrainians reveals that providing clear evacuation plans dramatically improves a message’s perceived effectiveness, while sophisticated message framing makes little difference. The findings suggest that people living under wartime conditions are well aware of the dangers; what they need is practical guidance on how to leave, not arguments about why they should. This is particularly true for those without the means to evacuate autonomously.
Council on Foreign Relations
How North Korea has bolstered Russia’s war in Ukraine
According to the brief, North Korean troops and weapons have played an unexpectedly crucial role in sustaining Russia’s grinding military campaign in Ukraine. In exchange, Pyongyang has been able to upgrade its outdated Soviet-era military.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
The tipping point: an emerging model of European security with Ukraine and without Russia
This study starts from the premise that Ukraine’s and Russia’s visions of European security are fundamentally incompatible. There is broad agreement within Europe on continuing Ukraine’s integration into both the EU and NATO. However, not only Europe’s level of commitment to Kyiv, but also the tempo of its actions, will determine the extent to which Ukraine becomes part of the European security order.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Seize Russia’s money — stop dithering
The brief notes that delay is often a feature of EU negotiations. The EU’s decision to postpone action on frozen Central Bank of Russia assets – worth at least €140 billion ($162 billion) – has exposed vulnerabilities. While the EU debated, the US and Russia negotiated a 28-point ‘peace’ plan that would divert these funds, jeopardising Ukraine’s financial lifeline and Europe’s support framework.
Magyar Külügyi Intézet / Hungarian Institute of International Affairs
Ukraine’s political crossroads: the anti-corruption crisis and the shifting balance of power
The analysis highlights that Ukraine is at a political crossroads amid war, internal struggles, and growing Western pressure. It notes that the July 2025 stand-off exposed the fragility of President Zelenskyy’s military authority and tensions with Western allies. Furthermore, it states that the balance of power is increasingly shaped by Western donors as much as by domestic players.
RAND Europe
From policy to victory: recommendations to Ukraine for harnessing defence technology
The publication notes that defence technology policy and its implementation are uncertain, complex and costly areas for government investment. It states that Ukraine faces a unique challenge in acquiring new capabilities while engaging in an existential war and that it must balance immediate tactical demands with longer-term strategic policies. The study focuses on Ukraine’s defence technology policy landscape and technology integration, exploring challenges associated with implementing changes to defence technology policy and defence procurement.
RAND Europe
Scoping the future: improving Ukraine's awareness of future technologies
The report presents findings related to defence technology futures and outlines futures methods that could add value to Ukrainian decision-making processes. Additionally, it notes that these methods offer systematic ways of considering possible futures and understanding uncertainties and emerging trends.
RAND Europe
The article states that the pace of technological development and evolution of combat in Ukraine is unprecedented, and that Ukraine would benefit from fortifying its procedures for capturing this learning. It notes that Ukraine’s military and organisational culture is unique, shaped by Soviet hierarchy, informal networks and innovation. It explains that the NATO lessons learned process is a useful baseline but not a perfect institutional or cultural fit.
RAND Europe
Learning and remembering under fire: proposals for a novel doctrinal system for Ukraine
The report consists of four chapters, which describe the role of doctrine in modern militaries, provide a nuanced understanding of doctrine in the Ukrainian context and outline the recommendations that research has identified for a future system of Ukrainian doctrine. It ends with recommendations for immediate follow-up action to begin building this new system of doctrine creation.
Institut français des relations internationales
Char de combat : obsolescence ou renaissance ?
Since February 2022, Russian and Ukrainian forces have lost over 5 000 tanks. Both sides have adapted their tactics, for example by using tanks for infantry support, operating in poor weather, and adding anti-UAV measures. Tank architecture is evolving to meet modern battlefield needs. Germany leads the renewed European tank market with the Leopard 2, while South Korea and the US are gaining a foothold. The brief suggests that France should modernize its tank forces to remain competitive in the European rearmament landscape.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
The case for a transport ban on Russian oil
This brief discusses the effects that would arise if the EU imposed a full transport ban on Russian oil. The transport ban would imply that any oil tanker transporting Russian oil would be prohibited from any oil trade involving the EU and from entering EU ports. The brief adds that such a transport ban would achieve the intended objectives of the EU’s oil sanctions: to reduce Russia’s oil income without risking surging oil prices.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Ukraine’s corruption scandal part two: how Zelenskyy can get ahead of it
The paper focuses on the corruption investigation that erupted in July, triggering the biggest protests in Ukraine in a decade and international pushback. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has a brief window to get ahead of this new phase of the crisis. So far, it argues, he is missing that opportunity by limiting his responses to incremental damage control. Ukraine’s foreign partners should also take a lesson from the summer and now push for a thorough response: accountability, energy governance reform, and broader corporate governance and law enforcement reform.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A shadow war in the Global South: are Kyiv’s operations in Africa paying off?
In the wake of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has conducted intelligence operations against Russian military contractors across Africa and the Middle East. The author argues that these operations, despite a remarkable agility and boldness, contrast starkly with the ongoing struggles of the Ukrainian government departments responsible for public diplomacy campaigns and the development of economic initiatives that benefit African nations.
Carnegie Europe
Turkey stakes its claim in the Ukraine peace process
The author suggests that Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in a post-war reassurance force for Ukraine, especially in the Black Sea, leveraging its strategic location and NATO capabilities. Turkey has already demonstrated its influence through initiatives like the Black Sea Grain Initiative and prisoner exchanges. However, Ankara’s relationships with Moscow and Washington mean it faces a tough choice
12.11.2025
Magyar Külügyi Intézet (Hungarian Institute of International Affairs)
Who can move what in the grand chess game of ending the Russia-Ukraine war?
The aim of this analysis is to examine the interests and objectives of all international actors with any significant influence on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and to draw conclusions about the prospects for peace. The authors state that it is in the interest of the US to end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible. They note that Russia cannot wage war indefinitely, and it is also in Russia’s interest to accept the offer of the Americans, which is described as quite good.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Game of drones: the production and use of Ukrainian battlefield unmanned aerial vehicles
The Russian war against Ukraine has been marked by the unprecedented use of unmanned aerial vehicles. The article looks at the scale of drone use by Ukrainian forces, the development of Ukraine’s drone production sector and its heavy reliance on foreign suppliers.
Vox Ukraine
How Ukraine’s data-driven approach is impacting the war effort
Ukraine’s fight has been defined by ingenuity – the contributions of volunteers, the bravery of its soldiers and the widespread use of technology. A key element has been the deployment of unmanned systems, particularly drones. These tools not only extend Ukraine’s reach on the battlefield but also generate vast amounts of data. This data-driven approach is giving military leaders sharper insights, improving battlefield decisions, and reshaping how the war is being fought.
Observer Research Foundation
Russia’s wartime adaptation against Ukraine
This paper assesses Russia’s military adaptations since 2023 at three levels of war – tactical, operational, and strategic – that have translated into battlefield gains. Notably, it presents a thematic analysis of Russia’s military adaptation, and not a temporal evolution of these actions.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund: a six-month progress assessment
The article examines the implementation of the US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund, signed in April 2025, and often seen as a critical minerals deal. The fund is taking shape as an institutional partnership that can attract capital into Ukraine’s natural resources industry, with the prospect of expanding to other sectors, such as defence.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The diplomacy of survival: Kyiv’s war beyond the battlefield
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Kyiv found itself fighting on multiple fronts: the battlefield, the information sphere and the diplomatic corridors of western capitals. The brief states that, in the following years, Ukraine not only held its ground militarily but also waged a sustained diplomatic campaign aimed at mobilising western support that has been quintessential to the national survival. Ukraine has learned not only to react to Russia’s aggression but also to exploit its excesses, to turn every display of force into a diplomatic opportunity.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia's war in Ukraine: response to the Ukrainian resistance
The authors state that the real lesson from Ukraine’s messaging success is not about replicating tactics but about renewing its commitment to the principles that define western political and moral identity. Ukraine’s messaging resonates because it reflects the audience’s values, beliefs and historical experiences. Its power lies not only in President Zelenskyy’s skilled communication, social media savvy and emotional appeals, but in the deeper principles it expresses – justice, sovereignty, and the rule of law.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
How to help Ukraine strengthen democratic resilience during and after the war
This brief outlines for the medium term different scenarios for Ukraine’s democratic resilience, depending on how the war, diplomatic efforts and domestic political dynamics evolve. The most likely scenario is the war continuing without a ceasefire, and ongoing martial law, societal fatigue and political uncertainty eventually creating the conditions for a government of national unity.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine’s war of fact and fiction
A survey of 2 000 Ukrainians reveals deep distrust in Telegram, YouTube and Facebook despite their widespread use. This gap fuels Russian disinformation, amplified by bots and emotional narratives. While Ukraine’s centralised wartime messaging fights propaganda, it risks pushing audiences to unreliable sources. The brief warns that Ukraine must balance wartime unity with media freedom to maintain democratic resilience against disinformation.
Vox Ukraine
Resilience of Ukraine’s small and medium businesses amid the war: challenges, policy and the future
Micro, small, and medium enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of Ukraine’s economy. They account for 99.98% of all legal entities and sole proprietors, generate approximately 64% of added value, and provide 74% of jobs nationwide. This brief examines how Ukraine’s small and medium enterprises have withstood the extraordinary shock of the full-scale war. They have lost part of their workforce and faced power outages, along with the destruction of warehouses and factories. Yet, they have resumed operations, adapted their business models, and become a symbol of Ukraine’s economic resilience.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The gloves are still on: why Washington’s newest oil sanctions won’t be enough to pressure Putin
In the week since the Trump administration announced blocking sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil, optimism has abounded for a meaningful crackdown that will pressure President Putin to end his war in Ukraine. The article notes that, unfortunately, these new sanctions will probably not be enough to move Moscow toward compromise, as the Kremlin knows it only needs to outlast an initial commercial and marketing challenge before persistent oil trading patterns resume.
Council on Foreign Relations
Three years of war in Ukraine: are sanctions against Russia making a difference?
The US and its allies have imposed broad economic penalties on Russia over its war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, experts debate whether the sanctions are working – what sanctions the US has imposed against Russia, what other governments are doing and if new sanctions are on the table during ceasefire negotiations.
College of Europe
This policy brief discusses how exactly renewable energy sources development in Ukraine will benefit the country and the EU. It argues that, given its abundant renewable energy endowment, Ukraine can become a ‘clean energy hub’ of Europe, and that the EU must, therefore, design measures to support the renewables sector in Ukraine both during and after the war.
Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade)
Dwindling solidarity: Czechia's political realignment driven by the division over Ukraine
The analysis examines the final stretch of the October elections in the Czech Republic. It highlights that growing war fatigue and concerns about Ukrainian refugees are influencing voter attitudes. It notes that Andrej Babiš positions himself as a pragmatic, sovereigntist alternative prioritizing Czech interests and peace. Finally, it observes that the elections could lead to a political realignment affecting both domestic and foreign policy.
Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade)
Russia and the global oil market: why price drops don’t always mean pain for Moscow
This article aims to understand how changes in oil prices affect the Russian economy and what factors play a role in changing oil prices. It looks at the period between 2022 and 2025, focusing on the Russian export of crude oil to its trading partners. The findings suggest that changing oil prices significantly influence the Russian economy through its income from crude oil exports. However, the influential factors-like sanctions, OPEC+ announcements and price caps sometimes have contradictory results that defy expectations.
Istituto di Studi Politici Internazionali
Beyond steel: how Italy and Ukraine are rebuilding economic bridges
The article discusses how Italy and Ukraine are transforming their relationship, with Rome playing a strategic role in Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU integration beyond mere trade. Once defined by iron and metallurgy, Italy-Ukraine relations are being recast in the fields, factories and financial corridors of a reshaped Europe. The article states that Ukraine’s economy adapts to war and deepens its EU integration path; Italy has emerged as both a critical trade partner and a potential strategic advocate inside the EU.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ancient wisdom: Europe cannot hide behind its walls
The article argues that Europe must learn from Thucydides' warnings about defensive strategies failing without offensive power. Facing threats from Russia and China, Europe cannot rely only on sanctions and defence – it should unite militarily through joint procurement, training and alliances. Ukraine's war-weariness strategy may not deter Putin indefinitely, while Europe's fragmented approach risks repeating Athens' mistakes against Sparta.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Not yet changemakers: Russian anti-war civic initiatives in Europe
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked a wave of activism among Russian immigrants. Since then, experts have begun to explore whether these communities could have a positive impact on future changes in Russia. To assess the real political impact of these anti-war civic initiatives, it is important to understand how they operate. For drafting the present report, in-depth interviews with representatives of anti-war communities were conducted across Europe which highlight the characteristic features of Russian anti-war civic initiatives.
Atlantic Council
The CRINK: inside the new bloc supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine
This report addresses issues concerning the nature of Russia’s relationship with the three revisionist powers of China, Iran and North Korea – the extent to which they coordinate their policies, the durability of these new sets of relationships and how they might evolve once the war is over. It also suggests how the west might deal with ‘the CRINK’ – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – collectively and individually going forward.
Institut français des relations internationales
La dissuasion nucléaire russe à l'épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
The study traces the evolution of Russian nuclear deterrence from the fall of the USSR to the war in Ukraine. It highlights that Russian deterrence in Ukraine faced challenges owing to Ukrainian resistance and western solidarity, prompting Moscow to adapt its doctrine and lower the threshold for nuclear use. It also notes that this doctrine serves Kremlin ambitions in the post-Soviet space, while observing that US and European actions influence the intensity of Russia’s deterrence measures.
09.10.2025
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
The fire: the offensive meant to decide the war
Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has evolved into more than just a battlefield confrontation. This brief outlines three key aspects: the ‘hot’ war against Ukraine, characterised by mass warfare, drones and attrition; the ‘cold’ confrontation with NATO, focused on managing escalation; and the internal struggles within Russia, marked by fatigue, militarisation, repression and increasing social isolation, as many seek to distance themselves from the war, both mentally and in everyday life. Viewed separately, each dimension distorts the overall picture. Together, they reveal a Russia that is both fragile and resilient, archaic yet adaptive.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Ukraine asks: Europe, can you still hear us?
The author sets out a roadmap to defeat Putin and restore peace to Europe. In his view, calls for a diplomatic solution are misplaced: there is no compromise to be had with Putin. Nothing in Putin’s record suggests he would capitulate or submit to anything other than overwhelming force. The author concludes that Europe can secure peace only by defeating him.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: fortification for drone warfare
High-intensity drone warfare has shattered assumptions about how defensive positions should be built. In 2025, Ukraine has discarded Cold-War-era doctrines to embrace a paradigm of scattered, low-observable and fluid strongholds supported by distant fire control and rapidly deployed counter-uncrewed aerial systems. This brief offers a blueprint for fortification in the drone age, emphasising end-user-informed design, dispersion, concealment, modularity and small-unit adaptability.
Carnegie Europe
Taking the pulse: should Europeans deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine regardless of a ceasefire?
Despite US efforts to reach a ceasefire, Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This publication suggests that, to change Putin’s calculus and compel him to engage, European countries should deploy troops in Ukraine before a ceasefire.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Ukrainian war refugees in Estonia: socio-demographic portrait and support policies
Demographics will be one of the most difficult challenges for post-war Ukraine. Depopulation poses significant risks to the country’s socio-economic recovery. Estonia hosts a significant proportion of Ukrainian refugees relative to its population. Understanding the socio-demographic profile of Ukrainian refugees and the level of support from the host country can be useful for adjusting the strategy for their return from abroad.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Debris from weapons used by Russia in Ukraine shows a continued reliance on foreign commercial parts despite international sanctions. This report explores how these technologies bypass export controls and considers the implications for efforts to curtail the spread of weapons components.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU accession: coordination between investment and technical assistance
The authors argue that by ensuring well-coordinated and strategically aligned technical assistance and investment, the EU and its partners can accelerate Ukraine’s recovery, support its national policy objectives, strengthen its resilience and aid its successful integration into the EU.
Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Mapping Ukrainian CSOS in the Nordic-Baltic region: areas of advocacy and challenges
This policy brief maps Ukrainian civil society organisations active in the Nordic-Baltic region, based on a 2025 survey and discussions at the Nordic Ukraine Advocacy Summit. It highlights the diverse landscape of advocacy groups, ranging from long-established diaspora organisations to initiatives formed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It also highlights key challenges, such as the lack of coordination mechanisms, uneven access to political platforms, and limited technical capacity.
Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Liberal values in Ukraine days before the 2022 invasion
Just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European social survey completed the 10th round of data collection on public attitudes and beliefs in Ukraine. This policy brief examines regional variation in liberal values such as attitudes toward democracy and the EU, based on that data.
MTA Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont - Világgazdasági Intézet (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies HAS - Institute of World Economics)
Ukrainian textile and garment industry: navigating war and EU integration
Ukraine’s textile and garment industry has long been a vital part of the national economy, but the full-scale war has severely disrupted it. This article looks at the destruction of manufacturing facilities, the withdrawal of international buyers and the disruption of supply chains, while also revealing that, despite these challenges, several firms have shown resilience, continuing production and adapting their operations to wartime conditions.
Institute for National Security Studies
Europe as the last obstacle on Russia’s path to victory in Ukraine?
This brief argues that President Putin sees an opportunity to drive a wedge into the transatlantic partnership, exploiting disagreements between Washington and its European allies over Ukraine. From Moscow’s perspective, Europe remains the last obstacle to achieving its goals in the war, due to its geographical proximity, its economic power, its support for Ukraine and its readiness to provide both military and economic assistance. Against this backdrop, Russia has intensified its rhetoric toward Europe and has escalated its military activity, such as the recent actions against Poland, Romania and Estonia.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Help from the Far East: Japan’s support for Ukraine
Russia’s war against Ukraine has significantly deepened Ukrainian-Japanese relations, making Tokyo one of Kyiv’s most important partners. The article analyses the scale and nature of Japan’s consistent support for Ukraine, as well as the challenges to this partnership.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Veterans of Russia's war of aggression: failed reintegration as a threat to the post-Putin era
The repatriation of Russian soldiers from the war in Ukraine and the reintegration of veterans into society are set to pose significant challenges, surpassing issues faced since WWII. This publication notes that while simmering discontent among veterans is unlikely to threaten Putin's power immediately, it could deepen the political crisis in post-Putin Russia. The full extent of the issue remains unclear but it may become a significant factor in future political dynamics.
15.09.2025
Fondation Robert Schuman
Ukraine: behind the Kremlin's ill will lies the risk of eternal war
The author argues that following the stalemate of negotiations on Ukraine, the Kremlin's attitude should be viewed through the prism of its fears and obsessions. Putin’s real objectives are analysed with regard to the organisation and management of political events desired or imposed by the Russian president.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
After the Alaska Summit: Ukraine not closer to peace
The Alaska summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has not brought Ukraine any closer to peace. The article claims that, instead, it has worsened the situation by legitimising Putin’s war policy and his place on the international diplomatic stage. It further states that unless European NATO members contribute more significantly to supplying weapons and influencing the military balance on the front lines, including security guarantees, they will be unable to affect the outcome of negotiations. The article also adds that any territorial concessions by Ukraine would further undermine international law.
International Crisis Group
Beyond the Ukraine summits: five realities after three years of war
As the dust settles after two whirlwind summits, it is clear that any diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher standard. Experts offer insights into several key realities that should guide negotiators in their efforts to secure a sustainable peace.
Council on Foreign Relations
Major takeaways from Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy and European leaders
The article discusses the results of an August summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, during which President Trump doubled down on calls for a peace deal with Russia.
Council on Foreign Relations
How a ceasefire agreement can bolster Ukraine’s security - and NATO’s, too
While hopes for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war remain slim, US and European leaders need to lay the groundwork for lasting peace, the notes argues. Designing provisions that impose high costs on Russia for any future aggression is essential to ensure an agreement holds. Although the prospects for an early ceasefire in Ukraine remain poor, the United States, along with its European partners, should prepare and plan for a durable peace agreement.
European Policy Centre
By failing to offer Ukraine genuine security guarantees in the past, Europe and the US effectively gave Russia an open invitation to invade, the brief suggests. Ahead of a ceasefire, it advocates that Ukraine should receive robust security guarantees through a clear bilateral or multilateral mutual defence treaty. This would provide a stronger deterrent against Russian aggression than the current patchwork of political assurances, as it would demonstrate that Europe and the US were committed to integrating Ukraine firmly into the Western security framework for the long term.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Why Europeans paying for US weapons for Ukraine is a unique opportunity
This memo lays out why the arms shipments and possible sanctions announced by Donald Trump on July 14 marked a significant policy shift in his administration’s stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine. After detailing why the effects of that shift can only materialise on the battlefield, months from now, it highlights the strategic opportunities it still offers both Europe and Ukraine to address current military-security challenges – especially if Germany plays an active role.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Trump sends weapons to Ukraine: by the numbers
Under the Trump administration, military aid to Ukraine has been on and off, then partially on, then on again, and then increased further. Yet, much is unknown about the new policy, and the details will affect the speed of weapons delivery, the effectiveness of the deliveries, and the policy’s political acceptability. Further, the concerns that prompted the second aid pause – dwindling US stockpiles and competing military needs – remain.
International Crisis Group
In a tight spot, Ukraine resolves to fight on
Over three years into Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukrainian troops are confronting another grinding Russian summer offensive. This article discusses the status of Kyiv’s war effort and Ukrainians’ state of mind. It tries to respond to several questions: how is the Ukrainian war effort going; what are the biggest challenges that Ukraine must overcome in its war effort; and what is the US doing for Ukraine during the second Trump administration?
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Foreign fighters 2.0: the interplay of technology and lived experience in the Russia-Ukraine war
The article examines how digital technologies are fundamentally reshaping foreign fighter participation in contemporary warfare. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Ukraine, it highlights the critical need for policymakers to develop responsive frameworks that can navigate these hybrid warfare dynamics, balancing technological advancement with the essential role of human interaction and trust.
International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - The Hague
"Ticket to Bandera": Doxing Foreign Fighters for Ukraine
This report studies the efforts of the global network of Russians and their volunteer doxers operating on doxing channels between 2024 and 2025 and focuses on the European victims of this modus operandi. It aims not only to raise awareness of doxing practices employed by malicious state and non-state actors but also to highlight the potential for this tactic to be used for blackmail or as compromising material against the doxed individuals.
Friends of Europe
How Russia fabricates reality to feign innocence while bombing civilians
This article looks at Russian disinformation regarding Russia’s actions in the war. It describes how researchers have uncovered a coordinated disinformation tactic known as an ‘information alibi’, used to deflect blame and obscure responsibility for Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Friends of Europe
How to fight disinformation: lessons from Ukraine’s leading English-language media
Information has become a non-material battleground in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and countering disinformation has turned into “a matter of survival” for Ukrainians. In this article, UNITED24 Media outlines the lessons they have learned about effective communication. It concludes that now is the time for European democracies to invest in proactive strategies that prioritise trust-building, digital literacy, and compelling, human-centred storytelling.
Vox Ukraine
Ukrainian migrants: spending, employment, and impact on host country economies
Because of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians are living abroad. They are gradually finding employment, and their spending via payment cards of Ukrainian banks is decreasing. Via payment of taxes, insurance contributions, and significant consumer demand, Ukrainian citizens are supporting the economies of recipient countries, primarily Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. This article talks about the latest trends in migration: from the motivation behind choosing a country of residence to the contribution migrants make to the economies of partner countries.
Vox Ukraine
Sanctions against the Russian science: current results so far
The note describes one of the famous narratives of Russian propaganda, namely that sanctions are not working and they are not efficient. Indeed, despite 25 000+ different sanctions (mostly concentrated on the Russian economy) the Russian Federation is able to continue the biggest war in the world since WWII. At the same time, Russia starts any negotiations with demands to lift the pressure of sanctions. This is a little bit suspicious: why is it so important to ease ‘non-working and inefficient’ sanctions?
CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research
The report presents a comprehensive analysis of support for Ukrainian local and regional authorities in the context of the Ukraine facility. It analyses the distribution of funds under this financial mechanism, with particular focus on technical assistance, capacity building, and reforms necessary for Ukraine’s path toward EU membership.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
In discussions about Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, members of trade unions are not frequent participants. The authors interviewed representatives of Ukrainian trade unions about how the war has affected their industries and the activities of the unions themselves, as well as what is of primary importance for the postwar recovery of their sector, particularly in regard to the human resources potential lost during the years of war.
Vox Ukraine
DREAM will show it all: how Ukraine’s reconstruction is going, how much it costs - and who pays
Ukraine is fighting every day for its future, and the entire nation is part of this struggle. Despite all the challenges—damaged cities and villages, and sometimes destroyed infrastructure—the process of recovery is already under way. Reconstruction efforts are ongoing, but their scale, financial requirements, and actual pace are not always clear to citizens. In this nationwide effort, the author raises the question of how the country can stay on track, ensure transparency regarding the allocation of resources, and make sure that the most critical areas are prioritised for restoration.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
How to rebuild Ukraine with security, EU support, and grants
This review details how to rebuild Ukraine after the destruction of war. It highlights the importance of lasting security, EU accession, and grant-based funding. The study breaks down the costs, phases, and reforms needed to modernise the state and economy.
Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Mobilizing ‘Team Ukraine’ for a successful recovery
This paper analyses the emerging recovery framework and assesses progress towards the level of community inclusion necessary. Alongside other relevant research, it draws on the findings from the latest edition of Chatham House’s survey of civil society organisations, conducted online in early 2025. The responses to the survey show that nearly 70% of such organisations are already involved in recovery. The survey makes clear that Ukrainian civil society is keen to push for structural reforms and the modernisation of institutions.
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
The fate of the health infrastructure in Ukraine: between occupation and reconstruction
Rebuilding Ukraine’s health infrastructure is vital but is hindered by a plethora of factors including ongoing conflict, resource shortages, and political obstacles.This analysis provides a critical examination of the health infrastructure in Ukraine and the Russian-occupied areas, which could assist in shaping future reconstruction efforts during a ceasefire or the long-term resolution of the war.
German Marshall Fund of the United States
This paper looks at the approach of Central and Eastern European countries to Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction. In addition to providing an overview of these countries’ policies and approaches in the context of expected benefits for themselves and the region and their contributions to Ukraine, the paper summarises national-level best practices and gives recommendations for national governments and the region as a whole.
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
Landmines and land use: unblocking Ukraine’s rural and climate recovery
Russia's full-scale invasion has made Ukraine the most heavily mined country on Earth. Ukraine’s battle to regain control of its land is not just about restoring sovereignty, but about unlocking the country’s future as a food provider, a leader in green recovery and a climate-resilient economy.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Critical raw materials, local content policy and Ukraine’s economic recovery
Ukraine’s critical raw materials have become an object of global discussion since the signing of an agreement with the US that gives that country priority access to their development. The authors argue that this deal could help reduce Western reliance on some Chinese critical raw materials and propose a pathway to maximising the benefits of Ukraine’s resources through the policy mechanism of local content.
European Policy Centre
EU-Ukraine trade: from emergency measures to a renewed trade agreement
On 30 June 2025, the European Commission and Ukraine concluded negotiations on the review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). DCFTA 2.0 offers a more permanent trade regime and reciprocally broader market access than the original DCFTA; it better aligns with Ukraine’s status as an EU candidate country; and it potentially allows for Ukraine’s gradual and smooth integration into the EU single market.
Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung (Hanns Seidel Foundation)
The authors analyse the possibilities offered by international criminal law for addressing the war in Ukraine. At the same time, they also highlight limitations. The focus is particularly on the crime of aggression: the International Criminal Court was created as an international criminal court that can prosecute the most serious crimes against international law.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
EU reforms for Ukraine’s recovery: lessons from the URC2025
The Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 (URC2025) took place in Rome on 10 and 11 July. It brought together political and institutional leaders, international organisations, representatives from the financial and business sectors and civil society members to address both the immediate need for swift recovery and the long-term reconstruction of the country following Russia’s invasion. It also served as a platform to assess Ukraine’s ongoing EU accession process, reinforcing the interconnected nature of European integration and post-conflict reconstruction efforts.
Centre for Eastern Studies
A trusted ally? Denmark’s involvement in helping Ukraine
Compared with other Western countries providing aid to Ukraine, the author argues that Danish support is significantly smaller in scale, but it is characterised by a consistent and comprehensive approach. This is evidenced by the launch of the so-called Danish model of military assistance, whose strengths and limitations are analysed in this article. This example of an innovative approach to military support involves financing the production of weapons in Ukraine and comprehensive involvement in reconstruction projects.
Institut français des relations internationales
France, like other European countries, is being directly confronted, particularly since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, with a hybrid strategy of destabilisation implemented by Russia. This strategy is materialising in all possible fields and environments of confrontation and, in addition to undermining Western support for Ukraine, aims to weaken the European countries with which Russia perceives itself to be in a long-term systemic confrontation.
RAND Europe
Understanding Russian strategic culture and the low-yield nuclear threat
This report examines how Russian strategic culture shapes its nuclear posture, with a particular focus on non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs). It draws on historical, cultural and ideological analysis to provide a nuanced understanding of the motivations underlying Russia's nuclear doctrine and decision-making. Through scenario planning and expert interviews, the report explores the contexts in which Russia might consider the use of NSNWs, especially in relation to NATO and ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
RAND Europe
Evolving Russian perceptions of the British and French nuclear deterrents
The study lays out some key findings according to which there is consensus within the Russianmilitary-analytical community that the UK’s nuclear deterrent is highly dependent on the US, both technically and politically. The analysis concludes that while Russia perceives the UK’s deterrent as a credible threat that is able to impose unacceptable damage on Russia, the credibility of British capabilities is considered relatively weaker than that of French capabilities, due to the UK’s greater reliance on the US.
German Marshall Fund of the United States
Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine’s trilateral effort on Black Sea security
The importance of the trilateral format of cooperation between Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine was reaffirmed during a successful summit in June, which highlighted their shared commitment to regional security and to long-term strategic coordination.
08.07.2025
Council on Foreign Relations
How to end the Russia-Ukraine war
Ending the Russia-Ukraine war demands a shift in strategy from the Trump administration – one that compels Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate by coupling sustained pressure with pragmatic dialogue. This brief argues that a carefully crafted framework agreement is the key to breaking the deadlock and advancing a durable peace.
Council on Foreign Relations
Comparing the size and capabilities of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a stalemate, with Russia controlling 20% of Ukraine's territory. Both sides have suffered heavy losses, with Russia maintaining a military advantage, but Ukraine adapting its tactics using drones and technology. Foreign assistance has played a significant role, with the US and Europe supporting Ukraine, and China, Iran and North Korea aiding Russia. The note concludes that a ceasefire is unlikely, with Putin refusing to stop the war and negotiations making little progress.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ukraine's new theory of victory should be strategic neutralization
The author argues that, rather than assuming that the war can be ended through a battlefield victory or a negotiated compromise, Ukraine and its allies must plan to build a viable and secure state under constant military pressure. This reality demands a redefinition of what a successful outcome looks like and calls for a new strategic framework.
Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine's operation Spider’s Web shows future of drone warfare
This paper comments on Ukraine's 'Operation Spider's Web' attack, which used 117 drones to target Russian airfields, and which has significant implications for the conflict and for the future of warfare. The attack demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian territory and highlights the growing use of drones and AI in warfare. While the operation's success may be due to lax Russian security, it also exposes a vulnerability that ought to be of concern to military leaders worldwide.
College of Europe
Beyond temporariness: policy options for Ukrainians under EU temporary protection in 2025
The EU's temporary protection directive has provided over 4 million people who have fled Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 with residence, healthcare, education and employment rights across the EU. As the directive expires in March 2026, the Commission has proposed a one‑year extension until March 2027. This brief argues that, while the Commission's proposals offer an initial direction, they fall short of providing any legal certainty. A binding and harmonised EU-level roadmap is urgently needed in order to replace fragmented national approaches, ensure equal protection standards and maintain the integrity of the EU's collective response.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Ukraine's local actors: the unspoken heroes
As Ukraine advances towards EU integration, the upcoming Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 is expected to focus on the country's recovery and reconstruction. This brief describes the need for direct EU funding for Ukrainian local and regional authorities, which are currently underfunded and dependent on intermediaries, thereby hindering their ability to drive recovery and integration efforts.
European Policy Centre
Sanctions at a crossroads: developing EU leadership amid an uncertain transatlantic alliance
The brief advocates that the EU should enhance its sanctioning capacities to place pressure on Russia and defend its interests, as US sanctions policy in respect of Russia is uncertain and volatile. The EU has significant leverage as one of the world's largest economic blocs, with considerable sanctioning potential, including trade restrictions and frozen Russian assets. The EU should explore ways to circumvent vetoes and develop new tools for better international coordination and enforcement.
Council on Foreign Relations
The Senate's new Ukraine bill will not work: but here is how to fix it
This paper deals with the Sanctioning Russia Act, which would impose history's highest tariffs and tank the global economy. US Congress needs a better approach – one that strengthens existing sanctions and adds new measures which the current bill ignores.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Prospects for the use of frozen assets of the Central Bank of Russia
This report seeks to contribute to the political and expert debate on the future of the Central Bank of Russia’s frozen assets as an important tool for exerting pressure on Russia and supporting Ukraine. It analyses the political, legal and economic background to potential decisions, together with five main scenarios for the use of frozen funds.
International Crisis Group
A frozen conflict : the dilemmas of seizing Russia's money for Ukraine
Several countries have frozen Russian assets since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate those funds in order to support Kyiv. This brief explains how the money could be leveraged in talks with Moscow.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The events of February 2022 have prompted significant geopolitical shifts in the broader Black Sea region, markedly altering the traditional balance of power. Both Ukraine and Russia have incurred costs: Ukraine from the destruction brought about by the war, and Russia from sanctions. According to the author, the Black Sea region has undergone substantial militarisation, war-related destruction of critical littoral infrastructure, ecological degradation, shifts in trade and energy flows, and compromised navigability for both civilian and military vessels.
Carnegie Europe
The Black Sea has become the fulcrum of Europe's security
The Black Sea is pivotal in Russia's war against Ukraine, and in the broader standoff between Moscow and the West. To counter the Russian threat in the region, the EU has adopted a new strategy, and Turkey is building up its capabilities.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Hague summit series: NATO-Ukraine
Russia's war in Ukraine shows little sign of ending. As the author notes, differences between the US and most European allies regarding both the conditions for ending the war and Ukraine's longer‑term integration into Euro-Atlantic security structures present one of the greatest dangers to the transatlantic relationship in the years ahead.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
A blueprint for an agricultural recovery plan for Ukraine
This paper presents the essential elements of an agricultural recovery plan that would position Ukraine's agriculture sector for a sustainable and economically competitive future in line with EU integration.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
The case for seizing Russian state assets
The debate over confiscating Russian state assets frozen in Western democracies in order to support Ukraine's recovery is gaining momentum. With an estimated $290-330 billion in frozen assets, this could significantly aid Ukraine. Economic concerns about market impact are overstated. This paper argues that, with a coordinated political will and a legally sound mechanism, those assets could finance Ukraine's reconstruction and strengthen the international legal order.
European Council on Foreign Relations
How to arm a pacifist: lessons from Ukraine for the EU's defense
This article takes stock of the lessons Europe can learn from the Russia-Ukraine war to become a responsive hard power, with a particular focus on factors such as speed, regulatory flexibility and relevance of capabilities. The main recommendations include streamlining defence rules, integrating supply chains and leveraging technological solutions such as drones, AI and networked systems.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Preventing the next war: a European plan for Ukraine
This publication urges the EU and Ukraine to start crafting a long-term 'beyond the horizon' strategy immediately in order to help secure and stabilise Ukraine once the fighting ends, boost its resilience and consolidate its European pathway. The authors recommend stronger European military support for Ukraine, accelerated integration into the EU single market and support for election observation organisations in order to ensure the integrity and credibility of Ukraine's future elections.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Plugging the gap: how Europe can keep Ukraine supplied with the means to defend itself
The authors argue that the EU must prepare for a potential reduction in US military support for Ukraine, and therefore should rapidly boost EU defence aid for Ukraine. They add that this should include the EU's procurement of US systems, European and Ukrainian defence manufacturing and the adoption of an approach to addressing intelligence and communications shortfalls.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has profound consequences not only for Ukraine and Europe's security, but also for Russia itself. It represents an epochal turning point that has fundamentally altered that country's relationship with both Europe and Germany. This marks the end of the post-Cold War phase of relatively constructive relations with Russia, although that relationship had already been severely strained since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Council on Foreign Relations
The limits of Putin's ambitions
Putin's war in Ukraine is not just about territory – it is a calculated move rooted in history, aiming to reclaim Russia's global influence and potentially redraw Europe's borders. To safeguard European security, the West needs to revive its proven strategy: build a strong deterrent while pursuing dialogue to ensure long-term stability.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Iran, Russland und der Krieg in der Ukraine
Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has deepened Tehran-Moscow cooperation since February 2022. Iran is supporting Russia with drones and weapons, while helping it circumvent Western sanctions. In return, Russia has given Iran access to BRICS+, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, thereby easing its diplomatic isolation. The author examines how the June Israel-Iran conflict could affect this dynamic
11.06.2025
Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s Putin call indicates Ukraine’s future is up to Europe
This brief discusses a conversation between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Trump suggested that, when it comes to safeguarding Ukraine, the responsibility might now fall on Europe. The author adds that if the US were to reduce its support for Ukraine, it would be up to Europe to sustain the embattled nation by investing in the resources that would enable Ukrainians to defend themselves with Ukrainian-made weapons.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Can Ukraine fight without U.S. aid? Seven questions to ask
The authors aim to understand how detrimental a suspension of US military aid to Ukraine would be to the country’s ability to defend itself against Russia. They approach this by posing seven key questions and attempting to answer them.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Drone saturation: Russia’s Shahed campaign
This brief analyses the trends in Shahed drone attacks during the Ukraine war and highlights three policy options aimed at both strengthening Ukraine’s defence and diminishing Russia's ability to carry out its punitive strategy through low-cost drone strikes.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: Ukraine’s strategy and western military assistance
This brief explains that the military assistance to Ukraine goes far beyond traditional notions of the direct supply of weapons from partner countries’ arsenals. Providing financial assistance and investment to support the Ukrainian defence industry is another important contribution, as it is strengthening and maintaining the sanctions against Russia, for which G7 solidarity is essential. The brief concludes that, above all, the level of partner support for Ukraine determines its window of opportunity on the future battlefield.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
The staying power of Ukrainian lights lessons of wartime resilience of the electricity sector
The report argues that the wartime resilience of a power system requires an active and sustained contribution from a broad range of stakeholders (domestic and foreign, civil and military, as well as governmental, corporate, and societal) and provides another convincing example of how valuable and important the whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches are under severe conditions, including in the cyber and cognitive warfare domains.
Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (Magyar Külügyi Intézet)
A béke előjátéka: előadás számtalan felvonásban
The paper evaluates the success of the so-called ‘Istanbul 2.0’ peace talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place on 16 May 2025. The authors conclude that although the talks did not achieve a significant breakthrough, they highlighted the shift in political narratives, showcased an increased willingness for a ceasefire, and restarted peace negotiations, which were considered taboo before.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: prospects for an American peace
As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, international attention has turned towards the prospect of a negotiated settlement, with a US-backed framework among the most prominent initiatives. Reports suggest this might include a ceasefire, security guarantees for Ukraine, tacit recognition of Russia’s existing territorial control, and a long-term halt to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.
Centre for European Policy Studies
For when the war ends: prospects and policy options for Ukrainian refugees
Against the background of the ceasefire and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine which opened in mid-May, the brief focuses on the 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees currently residing in the EU.The data shows that the generous and wide-ranging temporary protection regime has on the whole been successful, and that over the last three years there has been a steady decline in the number of respondents indicating that they ‘would rather’ or are ‘definitely planning to return’ to Ukraine, from 74% at the end of 2022 to 43% at the end of 2024.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Returning Ukrainians home: mission possible?
In 2025, around 6.9 million Ukrainians are residing abroad as a result of the war, while the migration dynamics in Ukraine in the fourth year of the war remain negative. The paper argues that returning people from abroad is a challenging task for the authorities and a crucial issue for society. To motivate people to repatriate, it is necessary to create both effective institutional mechanisms and a favourable psychological atmosphere. It also adds that post-war Ukraine will be confronted with all the negative consequences of depopulation, such as shortages in the labour market and an increasing tax burden on businesses.
Council on Foreign Relations
What’s the deal with Trump’s Ukraine mineral agreement?
The new agreement will allow the US to share in future revenue earned from Ukraine’s critical mineral reserves. It is seen as a way to tie the US - and President Trump - to Ukraine’s future. The paper also explains why the Trump administration is so adamant about this mineral deal and how the deal benefits the United States.
Vox Ukraine
Replacing foreign aid: a macroeconomic plan B for Ukraine (and Europe)
The authors note that Ukraine faces the risk of declining economic and military aid from its allies, particularly the US, which poses significant challenges for both its military and its economy. They identify three key issues for Ukraine’s wartime economy: limited productive capacity and power generation, which are constantly under Russian attack; large fiscal deficits; and substantial external trade deficits. They also propose potential solutions.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Russia’s counter sanctions: forward to the past!
Since February 2022, Russia has introduced a series of counter sanctions in response to the international sanctions introduced following the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These measures aimed to counteract external economic pressure while shielding the domestic economy from further destabilisation. This brief argues that Russia’s countersanctions reinforced state control over key industries, and worsened market competition and fiscal sustainability, which contributed to a systematic move towards a planned economy.
Council on Foreign Relations
Three years of war in Ukraine: are sanctions against Russia making a difference?
The US and its allies have imposed broad economic penalties on Russia over its war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, this publication debates the kind of sanctions the US imposed on Russia, what other governments are doing, including the EU, and whether the sanctions are working.
Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies
Sanctions without scrutiny? The role of proportionality in the case law of the European Union courts
This paper analyses how the Union Courts have applied the proportionality test in the recent case law arising from the Russian sanctions regime. It explores how judicial review is influenced by the types of right at issue, the supposed effectiveness of sanctions, and their temporary nature. It also examines the increasing reliance on process-oriented review as a substitute for substantive rights-based review.
European Policy Centre
Renewable energy development in Ukraine has the potential to contribute not only to its national energy security but also to the EU’s energy diversification goals, given the country’s considerable renewables potential. However, the brief points out that with Ukraine’s renewable energy sector facing multiple uncertainties, mainly due to Russia’s ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure, the EU’s continued support is crucial.
Japan Institute of International Affairs
The brawns and the brains of conventional deterrence against Russia in Europe
The future of conventional European deterrence against Russia, the need for a realistic assessment of priorities in conventional capabilities and the defence industries, and the importance of political vision and coherence in defence development are the key topics being discussed. The European Commission White Paper on defence and the ReArm Europe plan are also examined, with a focus on cooperation between the EU and NATO to ensure effective conventional deterrence and address Russian threats.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
¿Puede la ayuda militar europea a Ucrania llenar el vacío estadounidense?
The US has played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine's military efforts against Russia, providing significant financial and military aid, including advanced weapons systems and intelligence support. While the European countries have also provided aid, they may not be able to fully replace the US's contributions, particularly in terms of intelligence, logistics, and command and control. This document examines the various US contributions, evaluates their effectiveness, and explores the potential for European countries to step in and replace these capabilities.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
The “Donbasisation” of Russia: how occupation is influencing Russia’s political system
Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that the war in Ukraine is perceived by its citizens as a distant military operation that does not affect them directly. However, as this commentary points out, the consequences of both the war and the forced integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories are large-scale, diverse and tangible throughout Russia. They include the growing number of human losses, criminalisation and legal nihilism. Moreover, the spread of gangster-like norms and practices from the occupied territories to Russia proper could eventually lead to the “Donbasisation” of Russia.
Think Tank reports on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine from 2022 - December 2025
This post does not necessarily represent the positions, policies, or opinions of the Council of the European Union or the European Council.
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