ekathimerini.com ECONOMY GREEK ECONOMY Greece among the most vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East Greek banks face new challenges due to geopolitical developments, says Scope Ratings Greece among the most vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East [Shutterstock] Eleftheria Kourtali 06.03.2026 • 15:32

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ECONOMY

GREEK ECONOMY

Greece among the most vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East

Greek banks face new challenges due to geopolitical developments, says Scope Ratings

Greece among the most vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East

[Shutterstock]

Eleftheria Kourtali

06.03.2026 • 15:32

  

Greece is particularly vulnerable to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, due to its high dependence on fossil fuels in its energy mix, estimates Scope Ratings, while Greek banks also face new challenges due to geopolitical developments.

As the rating agency notes, the economic, fiscal and credit effects on European countries will depend mainly on the duration and intensity of the conflict, on whether the crisis spreads to the wider region, and on the resilience of individual economies.

In a scenario of a short and relatively limited conflict, the macroeconomic and financial consequences are expected to be manageable for most countries, with central banks and governments addressing temporary inflationary pressures without significant interventions.

However, if the situation evolves into a prolonged and broader regional conflict, then the consequences will be greater for countries directly involved in or geographically close to military operations, for economies with significant exposure to global energy supply chains, especially those related to the Middle East region, as well as for countries with limited fiscal space to absorb the social and economic pressures that a stagflationary environment would cause.

According to Scope, prolonged instability in the Middle East could have significant global implications. Any prolonged disruptions to export facilities, energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz, combined with increased regional instability, increase the risk of a negative supply shock. This could translate into higher oil and gas prices and, therefore, potentially economic, fiscal and even political consequences at a global level, the house warns.

In this context, Europe is the most vulnerable region due to its dependence on fossil fuel imports, especially LNG. Although Scope considers it unlikely that European natural gas prices (TTF) will return to the very high levels of 2022, a prolonged period of high energy prices could have broader macroeconomic implications on Europe and Greece.