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Analysis
The Winners and Losers of Trump’s New Foreign Policy
Here are the countries that have benefited the most—and least—from the U.S. president’s decision-making.
December 24, 2025, 7:00 AM
By FP Staff
A photo illustration of Donald Trump with flags of many countries as pins on his lapel.
Aïda Amer for Foreign Policy
When describing U.S. President Donald Trump’s governing style, and particularly his relationships with other countries, two words tend to come up frequently: “mercurial” and “transactional.”
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The latter suits several U.S. allies, partners, and even adversaries just fine, while the former has buffeted even some of Washington’s closest and most enduring partnerships over the past year.
In examining which countries have benefited the most and least from the second Trump administration, we intentionally excluded the parties to the two biggest conflicts that it is trying to mediate—one between Israel and Hamas, the other between Russia and Ukraine. Both of those conflicts remain largely unresolved (despite the former pair agreeing to a cease-fire in October), and Trump’s mercuriality has seen his positions on those conflicts fluctuate over the past year.
With that said, here are five countries that have played the Trump game most successfully, as well as five others that have found themselves at a loss.
JUMP TO WINNERS
China - Saudi Arabia - Syria - Argentina - Pakistan
JUMP TO LOSERS
Venezuela - Iran - South Africa - Canada - India
WINNERS
China
Trump and Xi Jinping shake hands.
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands after their talks in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
It might seem strange to include the United States’ biggest adversary and peer competitor in the winner column, but it’s hard to argue that China has suffered significantly during Trump’s second administration—particularly in comparison to the bruising trade war and technology curbs of his first one, an approach that was continued and even expanded by the Biden administration.
Some of those technology curbs—including the sale of semiconductor chips to China and a proposed U.S. ban on Chinese-owned tech platform TikTok—now appear to be up for debate, if not outright relaxed.
Trump did dramatically escalate tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States early in his term, but he de-escalated them equally as fast following an October meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. That meeting yielded a trade truce that was largely seen as slightly more favorable to China, which has used its enormous leverage over critical minerals and rare earths to get Trump to back down.
Trump’s new National Security Strategy did not cede as much ground on Taiwan as China might have hoped and Washington’s China hawks might have feared, but the strategy’s emphasis on “state sovereignty” and recognition of “countries whose governing systems and societies differ from ours” portend a realism that Beijing is likely to welcome.—Rishi Iyengar
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Saudi Arabia
Trump and Mohammed bin Salman gesture to each other at a doorway.
Trump greets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on Nov. 18.Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
Trump has long made his affinity for Saudi Arabia clear, perhaps most notably by making it the destination of his first overseas presidential trip during both his first and second terms in office.
Washington and Riyadh now appear to be closer than ever. In November, Trump rolled out the red carpet—literally—for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a fanfare-laden visit that produced a flurry of deals aimed at binding the two countries’ economies together.
The White House has now designated Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally—which boosts defense cooperation, albeit without a security guarantee—and advanced plans to sell F-35 jets to the country. The two nations also plan to join forces in other sectors, with expanded cooperation on artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and critical minerals. “A stronger and more capable alliance will advance the interests of both countries, and it will serve the highest interest of peace,” Trump declared.—Christina Lu
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Syria
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa waves as he gets in to a car.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa greets people outside the White House after meeting with Trump on Nov. 10.Eypress via Reuters Connect
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa became the first Syrian head of state in nearly eight decades to visit the White House when Trump welcomed him there in November, underlining a remarkable turnaround for the former al Qaeda militant who had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head until late 2024.
But Sharaa’s ascendancy following the ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad goes beyond optics—he successfully lobbied Trump to remove most U.S. sanctions on Syria during that visit, with Congress voting in December to repeal legislation that kept some sanctions in place.
While tensions between Syria and Israel remain, there is every indication that the Syrian government retains Trump’s backing. “It is very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous State,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Dec. 1. “The new President of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is working diligently to make sure good things happen, and that both Syria and Israel will have a long and prosperous relationship together.”
Trump continued to praise Sharaa even as the U.S. military struck several Islamic State targets in Syria on Dec. 19 in retaliation for an attack that killed two U.S. soldiers days earlier, posting on Truth Social that the Syrian president was “fully in support” of the strikes and “working very hard to bring Greatness back to Syria.”—Rishi Iyengar
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Argentina
Trump and Javier Milei.
Trump greets Argentine President Javier Milei at the White House on Oct. 14.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Trump has never been shy about his support for Argentine President Javier Milei. He has hailed Milei, a political ally, as his “favorite president” and “MAGA all the way.” “I love him because he loves Trump,” Trump said in 2024.
Their allegiance runs so deep that, when Argentines went to the polls in October to vote in the country’s midterm elections, Trump publicly endorsed Milei—and then hinged a whopping $20 billion bailout for the country on his electoral success. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump said.
Milei did win. But Trump’s planned $20 billion lifeline sparked substantial blowback in Washington from both sides of the aisle, and economic experts questioned the payoff of the White House’s strategy. Maybe that can help explain why U.S. banks have now shelved the $20 billion plan and are instead mulling a smaller and more short-term deal, the Wall Street Journal reported.—Christina Lu
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Pakistan
Marco Rubio smiles in the Oval Office.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) greets Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the Oval Office of the White House on Sept. 25.Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
During his first term in office, Trump slammed Pakistan and its leaders for “lies & deceit,” calling them out for giving “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help” and suspending most U.S. military aid to the country.
Weeks into his second term, Pakistan’s role in arresting the mastermind of a terror attack in Afghanistan gave Trump an early win and provided Islamabad an in with the new U.S. president. Flattery, dialogue, and deals—on everything from cryptocurrency, to critical minerals, to the Nobel Peace Prize—have followed, helped along by Trump’s personal affinity for Pakistan’s all-powerful military chief, Asim Munir.
“Our relationship looks good, as good as it has ever been,” Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, told Foreign Policy earlier this year. “We have to make good on it.”—Rishi Iyengar
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LOSERS
Venezuela
Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks alongside Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Dec. 2.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
When it comes to bilateral relations with the United States, it doesn’t get much worse than U.S. military strikes on boats off one’s northern coast, the possibility of land strikes, and the specter of regime change. Yet for months, that is exactly what Venezuela and its controversial president, Nicolás Maduro, have faced from the Trump administration.
Venezuela has been the biggest target of Trump’s ire when it comes to what his administration has labeled “narcoterrorists,” with Trump accusing Maduro of conspiring with cartels to flood the United States with drugs—even as Trump pardoned a former Latin American leader who was actually convicted of drug trafficking.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—facing uncomfortable questions and criticism from U.S. lawmakers over the legality of the military’s actions near Venezuela—has remained defiant. “These narcoterrorists are the al Qaeda of our hemisphere, and we are hunting them with the same sophistication and precision that we hunted al Qaeda,” he said in December.—Rishi Iyengar
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Iran
Smoke billows following an explosion in central Tehran
Smoke billows following an explosion in central Tehran on June 15.Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
Iran’s expensive and layered deterrence strategy, which it spent decades constructing, was dealt a devastating blow this summer. Over 12 days of bombing in June, an Israeli military offensive crippled Iran’s air defenses and its ballistic missile infrastructure. But it was the brief entrance of the U.S. military on June 22 in the form of B-2 bombers dropping so-called “bunker-buster” bombs on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities that is thought to have really set back Iran’s ultimate deterrence card. And while it appears likely that Tehran smuggled out some enriched uranium ahead of time and Iranian scientists retain the technical expertise to theoretically rebuild, it should be some years before Iran can reclaim its status as a nuclear threshold state. That is, if the Iranian regime makes the choice to do so.
U.S. regional policies will likely influence Tehran’s nuclear strategic calculus. Other actions by the Trump administration have weakened Iran’s regional position. They include the elevation of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who, just a year ago, toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Iran; the ongoing Israel-U.S. push for Lebanon-based Hezbollah to disarm; and a raft of new U.S. sanctions imposed this year on Iran’s oil smuggling network and illicit finance sector. Those sanctions have tightened the financial stranglehold on the Iranian regime, which has limited options to address sky-high public discontent.—Rachel Oswald
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South Africa
Trump shows pictures as he meets with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
Trump shows pictures as he meets with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office of the White House on May 21.Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
The South African government has taken it on the chin and the nose this year from the Trump administration. There are a few factors driving the White House’s animus toward Africa’s largest economy, some of which are made up and some of which are real.
Trump has pushed the false accusation that Afrikaners, the white descendants of European colonizers of South Africa, are experiencing a genocide and has authorized blanket refugee status for them. But other disagreements with the Trump administration are based in fact, such as South African government policies aimed at reducing long-standing racial inequality, and Pretoria bringing a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice over the treatment of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. And many U.S. officials are frustrated with South Africa’s continued equivocation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its friendly relations with Iran.
Trump has responded to these grievances by cutting hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign aid to South Africa, much of which went to the country’s fight against HIV/AIDS. The U.S. president also imposed 30 percent tariffs on South African imports, and he has said that South Africa will be unwelcome at the G-20 summit that the United States is hosting in Florida next December.—Rachel Oswald
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Canada
Trump looks at Canadian security as he steps off of Air Force One.
Trump looks at Canadian security as he steps off of Air Force One.
Trump steps off Air Force One upon arrival at Calgary International Airport in Alberta, Canada, on June 15, before the start of the G-7 summit.Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
Washington’s relationship with Ottawa plunged to a chilly nadir earlier this year after Trump repeatedly threatened to annex the United States’ northern neighbor and make it the 51st state.
The Trump administration no longer appears to be as fixated on such territorial expansion. But it has continued to be deeply aggressive toward one of its biggest trading partners, which remains subject to steep U.S. tariffs on a wide range of sectors. Trump has pointed to Ottawa’s supposed role in the fentanyl trade to the United States—claims that are not supported by data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection—and trade negotiations between the two countries have collapsed.
The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has employed Trump’s belligerent rhetoric, as well. In October, he reportedly burst into an “expletive-laced tirade” against Ontario’s trade representative, Canadian media reported.
And in November, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance lambasted Canada’s political leaders in a post on X, accusing them of harming their country’s living standards by promoting diversity through what he called “immigration insanity.”—Christina Lu
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India
Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive to hold a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House on Feb. 13. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive to hold a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House on Feb. 13. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive to hold a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House on Feb. 13.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
Pakistan’s ascendancy in Trump’s eyes is made all the more remarkable by the fact that it has coincided with U.S. relations with its archrival India falling to their lowest ebb in more than two decades.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—whom Trump has repeatedly referred to as a “great friend” and established close ties with in their respective first terms—was one of the first world leaders to visit Washington after Trump got reelected, and it appeared that they would pick up where they left off. But India’s refusal to give Trump credit for brokering a cease-fire with Pakistan after a brief armed conflict between the two neighbors in May, along with Trump’s purported frustration over India’s trade policies and its purchases of Russian oil, have seen New Delhi hit with some of the world’s highest Trump tariffs.
There are several indications that the fundamentals of the U.S.-India relationship remain solid, though. Their two militaries recently signed a 10-year defense cooperation pact, and Trump’s new National Security Strategy calls on Washington to “continue to improve commercial (and other) relations with India.”
But as 50 percent tariffs remain in place and a trade deal remains elusive, those who look at the optics cannot help but concede that they don’t look good.—Rishi Iyengar
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