GZero Daily Newsletter
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Dear Onder,
Hi there, and happy Mardi Gras.
In today’s edition:
Why did the Houthis hit an Iran-bound cargo ship?
Ukraine fights Russia in an unexpected place
Pakistan’s post-election chaos
Ian separates fact from freakout about Trump’s NATO comments
Plus: Our Political Mini Crossword!
Enjoy and thanks for reading,
– The Daily crew
What We’re Watching: Ukraine’s extended war effort, Houthis’ new tactics in Red Sea, Pakistan’s military faces reckoning, Santos special election
Ukraine extends its reach ... and to some strange places
With the frontlines stuck, and its conventional munitions dwindling, Kyiv is looking to expand its reach against Russian interests – both near and far.
Ukraine’s army is now working with private companies to boost the production of a new class of kamikaze drones that can fly up to 1,000km (621 miles) – far enough to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
That’s in addition to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pledge to build millions more “First Person View” drones – consumer models adapted with explosives – which have helped Ukraine to even the playing field against a larger enemy.
The drones expand Kyiv’s menu of options, says Alex Brideau of Eurasia Group. “They could attempt to hit Russian export facilities for oil and grain in an attempt to choke off revenues that support the war effort.” In recent days, Ukraine has done just that.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also taking its fight against Russia to ... Sudan? Ukrainian forces are reportedly helping the Sudanese army in its civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which are allegedly backed by Wagner Group.
That certainly sends a strong “we’ll fight you everywhere” message – but it’s not clear how much it helps with Kyiv’s core issues: entrenched front lines and uncertainty about US aid.
Is Pakistan’s military losing its grip on power?
Thousands of supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan took to the streets and blocked highways in southwestern Pakistan on Monday to protest the results of last week’s chaotic election.
Pakistan faces an uncertain future given no party won a majority, and both Khan and his rival, Nawaz Sharif, have declared victory. Though independents primarily aligned with Khan won the most seats (101), there’s no viable path for them to form a governing coalition due to their lack of party affiliation. They ran as independents after being blocked from using his party’s symbol, a cricket bat, as an electoral image to help illiterate voters find them on ballots.
“The military-dominated Pakistani establishment is working to cobble together a coalition of mainstream parties that will be led by Nawaz Sharif's Pakistani Muslim League, with Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s Pakistan People's Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement likely serving as junior partners,” says Eurasia Group analyst Rahul Bhatia.
“Given the influence of the establishment in Pakistan,” candidates backed by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party “will almost certainly be kept out of power,” adds Bhatia, though some “are also likely to join the coalition parties.”
Still, the unexpected success of Khan’s independents marks a serious rebuke of the country’s powerful military, which has long played an outsized role in Pakistan’s politics. The fact that Khan’s supporters are protesting despite the military’s crackdown on his party “shows that many Pakistanis are no longer afraid of the establishment,” says Bhatia, and it indicates the army’s power is “gradually eroding.”
“While Pakistan will likely see widespread protests once the new government is announced, the military should be able to handle them,” says Bhatia.
Friendly fire signals Houthis are shooting blind in the Red Sea
On Monday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at a ship bound for Iran, the militia’s main supporter. Would the Houthis really target their patrons in Tehran?
Almost certainly not. There’s no evidence to suggest a rupture between Iran and the Houthis, who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea in hopes of increasing global pressure on Israel to stop its assault on Gaza.
Rather, according to Eurasia Group’s Iran Expert Gregory Brew, the attack shows that the Houthis may be simply taking a different tack. “Houthi attacks may become more indiscriminate,” says Brew, “hitting ships they don’t intend to hit, or targeting ones with more sensitive cargoes.”
Firing blind(er). Iran recently relocated the surveillance ship that provides intelligence to the Houthis to Djibouti to avoid US attacks, limiting the Houthis ability to identify suitable targets and making it more likely that missiles will be mistakenly fired in the future.
Less precision in Houthi strikes will only further aggravate concerns about security in the Red Sea, a major global shipping chokepoint. See our recent Graphic Truth on the goods and commodities most affected by the Red Sea crisis.
Why New York’s special election is getting special attention
Long Islanders are heading to the polls on Tuesday to replace disgraced Republican Rep. George Santos.
The special election between Republican Mazi Pilip and Democrat Tom Suozzi is a test run for upcoming state and national elections. Both parties want to show they can win on issues like immigration and abortion in the battleground district.
In recent state elections, abortion has been a rallying cry for Democrats when restrictions have been on the ballot. But in Long Island, which isn’t considering restrictions, the issue may fall flat. Pilip has said she is pro-life but supports a woman’s right to choose, taking the air out of Suozzi’s accusations that she is radically pro-life.
But immigration is a more tangible concern. Unlike the rest of the country – where suburbs are trending blue – crime and, more recently, immigration, have turned Long Island red in the last three election cycles.
That’s why almost all of Pilip’s budget has been spent on immigration ads showing recently bussed-in migrants, attacks on police officers, and warnings of invasion. Suozzi is also calling to toughen border patrols, mirroring his party’s tactical shift to the center.
Will Indonesia choose a military officer-turned-cuddly grandpa for president?
Will Indonesia choose a military officer-turned-cuddly grandpa for president?
Voters in the world’s third-largest democracy will go to the polls on Wednesday to choose their next president. The popular incumbent Joko Widodo, aka Jokowi, is barred from running for reelection by term limits and has thrown his support behind three-time presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, a former military officer and the current defense minister. Thanks to this support, in addition to generous campaign promises and a slick image makeover, Prabowo, 72, appears well-positioned to join the club of septuagenarian world leaders.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford how this came about. Click here for the full story.
Game Theory
Still hyped from the big game this weekend? Or still trying to forget your team lost? Either way, play this week’s political mini crossword: Game Theory. Let us know if you clocked a new PR here.
Graphic Truth
Ukraine is days away from marking the second anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion. The war is largely stalemated, with few changes to the battlefield map in recent months. Ukrainian troops are engaged in brutal trench warfare reminiscent of World War I but with the added nightmare of deadlier modern weaponry and technology. After enjoying strong, steady support from its Western allies in the first year and a half of the war, Kyiv now faces a constant struggle to keep aid flowing in as it runs short on supplies and faces manpower issues. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of backing down despite the myriad political, economic, and societal consequences the war has had for Russia.
But none of that is undermining Ukraine’s resolve. New polling from the Munich Security Conference shows that Ukrainians are strongly opposed to any cease-fire framework that would require Kyiv to cede territory to Russia — particularly Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. This suggests that Ukrainians are largely aligned with their government, which has pushed for a peace plan that would see Russia withdraw troops from occupied territories and recognize Ukraine’s 1991 post-Soviet borders. Moscow has scoffed at this proposal.
NATO has a Trump problem
There’s “lots of hair on fire” over Donald Trump’s weekend statements about NATO, says Ian Bremmer. At a campaign rally, the former president said he had warned NATO allies that if they refused to honor their 2%-of-GDP defense spending commitments to the alliance, he’d encourage Moscow to attack them. The statement predictably alarmed European leaders, but setting aside the Trumpian rhetoric and hyperbole, Ian Bremmer takes a serious look at the underlying problem Trump was highlighting.
Watch Ian’s Quick Take here.
Hard Numbers: Migratory species face extinction, Dutch court halts shipments of F-35 parts to Israel, RFK’s Super Bowl ad debacle, Suspected separatist attack in Cameroon
22: A new report from the UN warns that over a fifth (22%) of the world’s migratory species are at risk of extinction due to climate change and human encroachment. The report, which focuses on 1,189 kinds of animals, emphasized that 44% have already declined in number.
7: An appeals court in the Netherlands on Monday ruled the government must halt shipments of F-35 jet components to Israel within seven days, citing concerns that they could be used to commit war crimes in Gaza. The Netherlands is home to a large warehouse of F-35 parts that are exported to countries that operate the US-made jet. The Dutch government said it will comply with the ruling but that it has appealed because these exports are a matter of foreign policy, which is up to the state.
7,000,000: Robert Kennedy Jr., who is running for US president in 2024 as an independent, on Monday apologized to family members for a campaign ad that ran during the Super Bowl. The commercial drew from a 1960 campaign ad for Kennedy’s assassinated uncle, President John F. Kennedy, and cost an estimated $7 million. Kennedy tweeted the ad was created by a Super Pac without his involvement or approval — but the 30-second commercial was simultaneously pinned to his profile on Monday.
1: At least one person was killed and dozens more injured by an explosion at a children’s Youth Day celebration in Cameroon on Sunday, as the Central African country continues to contend with separatist violence in its English-speaking regions. The unrest is linked to longtime Anglophone grievances alleging discrimination by the Francophone majority.
This edition of GZERO Daily was written by Riley Callanan, John Haltiwanger, and Alex Kliment. Edited by Tracy Moran.
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