Contextualizing China's 'leverage' with Houthis No images? Click here February 1, 2024  Hi and welcome to this issue of Al-Monitor’s China-Middle East Briefing. China is once again at the center of the Middle East news cycle. The United States and others are pinning some of their hopes on the fact that the PRC has relations with the Houthis in Yemen and with Iran that could de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea. Beijing doesn’t mind the attention but the Chinese saying “pass off fish eyes as pearls” 鱼目混珠 seems applicable to its leverage with Yemen. Let’s continue reading below and a reminder: if you were forwarded this newsletter, sign up here! Thank you, Joyce (Joyce_Karam) Leading this weekThis week, the United States has publicly intensified its calls for China's assistance in addressing the escalating situation in the Red Sea. This turmoil is adversely affecting Beijing's trade and disrupting its shipping routes. The message is in line with what Al-Monitor first reported in December: “The US wants to see from China some sort of conversation with the Iranians about the recklessness of the Houthi behavior,” a senior US official told Elizabeth Hagedorn then. The Houthis, in what they frame as a display of solidarity with the Palestinians, have carried out nearly 50 attacks on international shipping lanes. The majority of ships attacked have nothing to do with Israel or the Palestinians. These attacks have drawn the United States and United Kingdom into launching repeated strikes, including some on Wednesday night that hit 10 unmanned drones in western Yemen, US Central Command said. Military action, as these things go in Yemen, has not been enough to deter the Houthis. As Al-Monitor’s Jared Szuba notes, a Houthi ballistic missile came within a mile of a US destroyer Tuesday night before it was intercepted. Become a subscriber and get access to all of Al-Monitor’s news, analysis, newsletters and events. Use code CHN25 for 25% off your first year of Al-Monitor.Joyce’s take: The continuation of the Red Sea attacks on an almost daily basis tells us that the US call on China to use its leverage with both Iran and the Houthis is falling flat. China's historical positive relationship with the Republic of Yemen, dating back to its inception in 1990 and including infrastructure projects from the 1960s, has faced strain since the Houthi overthrow of the government in Sanaa in 2015. China's public stance aligns with the international community and Beijing’s Gulf partners in opposing the Houthis. China signed off on UN Resolution 2216 in 2015 calling on the Houthis to “withdraw from all areas seized during the latest conflict, relinquish arms seized from military and security institutions, cease all actions falling exclusively within the authority of the legitimate government of Yemen and fully implement previous council resolutions." While China has maintained open channels with the group and hosted a Houthi delegation in 2016, these efforts have not resulted in successful mediation. Yemeni scholar Nadwa al-Dawsari writes for the Middle East Institute that the Houthi escalation in the Red Sea goes beyond bravado. The attacks “are a manifestation of their ideology, rooted in Islamic fundamentalism,” Dawsari writes, adding, “Although Iran does not fully control the Houthis, the rebels owe the Islamic Republic the success of their transformation into a transnational force to be reckoned with.” On Iran, as Al-Monitor’s Andrew Parisiliti pointed out over the last year, Tehran’s investment in the Houthis “has been a low-cost, high-return” enterprise. “The payoff has been substantial, as Iran has exploited the Houthis to turn up and down the heat in its slow-go rapprochement with Riyadh while antagonizing and harassing shipping in the Gulf,” Parisiliti wrote last month. China has some ability to pressure both Iran and the Houthis through trade leverage, providing a means to protect its ships and only its ships from attacks. However, the challenge lies in persuading a rebel Islamist group to abandon a strategy that appears to be yielding success, and that’s beyond the capability of any external stakeholder in Yemen, with the exception of Iran. Deals and visits ✈️
Photo of the week  Houthi delegation led by Mehdi Mashat (center) visits Beijing in 2016. Credit: Houthis' Masira TV |
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