CNN : Fareed: As War Unfolds in Gaza, the US Faces a Tall Task - October 20, 2023

 

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good   Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here.   October 20, 2023

Fareed: As War Unfolds in Gaza, the US Faces a Tall Task “The crisis in the Middle East has revealed an important reality about the world,” Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. “Although American influence may not be what it once was, it is still true that no other country can replace the United States as the pivotal player on the global stage. But to retain that influence, it will need to act wisely and go further than it has yet done.”   As war has unfolded between Israel and Hamas, Fareed points out, China and Russia have largely been absent from the crisis. The US, by contrast, has the ear of Israeli leaders, and in the past, several senior American diplomats have enjoyed the trust of Palestinian officials. The US also has valuable lessons to offer Israel about overreacting to terrorism, given its own experiences after 9/11.   “In addition to his counsel of caution,” Fareed writes, President Joe Biden “should press the Israeli government to provide some political pathway for Palestinian aspirations.” The failure of past Israeli–Palestinian peace efforts has created “ideal conditions for Hamas, which argues that there is no nonviolent, negotiated solution and that acts of terrorism are the only option. This is a tall order for American diplomacy. But the alternative is to let this crisis fester, which could easily result in violence that is even worse than what we are seeing now.”

Where, How and Why the US Should Try to Steer This War The US is diplomatically engaged in ways that other major powers aren’t, as Fareed points out. In ordering two US aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean—a signal to Hezbollah, Iran and other actors not to seize an opportunity to attack Israel—Washington has also inserted itself into the military landscape.   That entails some risk. As CNN Senior International Correspondent Ben Wedeman writes, the US is closer to being drawn into a Middle East war than it has been in some time: “(A)t best, the US is scrambling to respond to events largely out of its control. And in this dangerous terrain, suddenly the vulnerabilities of the sprawling American military presence across the Middle East are glaringly obvious.”   But as much as Washington is unable to directly control events on the ground, The Economist writes that “(o)nly America can save Israel and Gaza from greater catastrophe.” The magazine concurs that this will be difficult, identifying exigencies and dangers: “Israel needs to show that its fight is with the terrorists, not the people of Gaza. It should pledge a new beginning after the war, with a programme of rebuilding and the promise that it will not strangle Gaza’s economy. … Even if Mr Biden can persuade Israel to take these steps, that leaves the hardest question of all. How to provide security in post-Hamas Gaza? ... Much can and will go wrong. Ordinary Arabs’ ingrained anti-Zionism will gnaw at their leaders’ willingness to help. But the alternative is the decay that feeds scavenger states like Iran and Russia. Mr Biden is the only leader who can pull things back together. If he fails, and the security of the Middle East crumbles, it will be a catastrophe for America, too.”

Assessing Blame for the Hospital Blast The explosion at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, believed to have killed hundreds, produced heart-wrenching scenes and disturbing images of injury and death. As The Economist writes, it also quickly became a potential flashpoint in this war—prompting anti-Israel protests across the Middle East and North Africa, seeming momentarily to encapsulate Israel’s heavy-handed campaigns in Gaza (past and current) that have killed thousands of Palestinians, and scuttling a planned meeting between President Joe Biden and Arab leaders on his trip this week to the region. As Shannon Bond writes for NPR, the blast inflamed tensions and was followed by false information spread online.   Who was responsible? Hamas quickly blamed Israel; Israel blamed the militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad, saying the explosion resulted from a failed rocket launch and releasing purported photographic and audio evidence to make its case; the US backed Israel’s account. As CNN’s Erin Burnett details, video shows a rocket, apparently launched from Gaza, flaring and changing direction mid-air; it’s not conclusive, but it seems to support Israel’s claims.

The War’s Ugly Near-Term Future For days, an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza has appeared imminent. Commentators have noted the catastrophic quality of modern urban warfare, which would be exacerbated by Hamas’s network of tunnels under Gaza.   Some have drawn comparisons to the Iraqi siege that uprooted ISIS from Mosul in 2016. A volunteer ambulance driver in that battle, Bradley Brincka writes for Tablet: “The apocalyptic destruction visited on Mosul might lead some to conclude the coalition pursued an indiscriminate bombing campaign to rid the city of its occupiers, but that was not the case at all. … Even the most ‘humane’ application of force in full accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict in a densely populated city results in shocking death and destruction far in excess of what most would consider ‘proportionate.’”   In a War on the Rocks podcast, host Ryan Evans asks John Amble of the Modern War Institute if Israel’s forces are uniquely trained for and capable of such a complicated ground operation, or if they’ll encounter big problems they haven’t even considered. Amble’s answer: “Yes to both.”   The Economist details other complicating factors: the possibility of a simultaneous war with Hezbollah, the captivity of hostages in Gaza, and the presence of so many Palestinian civilians in crowded Gaza. Noting that destructive wars can produce future radical groups and that terrorists seem to bait powerful countries into strategic blunders, the magazine writes that “as civilian casualties mount, so will pressure on Israel to withdraw and accept a ceasefire. Its previous invasions of Gaza, in 2009 and 2014, were quite brief. … That points to perhaps the biggest challenge for Israeli forces in Gaza: not getting bogged down. America’s invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and Israel’s war in Lebanon in 1982 … provide cautionary tales.”

Tense Times in the Jewish Diaspora As the world reacts to Hamas’s massacres and Israel’s retaliation, Anshel Pfeffer writes in a Haaretz column that a tide of global antisemitism is raising anxiety in Jewish communities on multiple continents. Around the world, Pfeffer writes, Jews “see mass marches in the cities where they spent their entire lives accusing Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza—either totally disregarding the Hamas massacres of Israelis, or in some cases justifying and glorifying them. So being concerned that someone living close by may be planning an attack on the local Jewish community isn’t just a fear. It’s a necessary precaution.”   At Tablet, Thomas Ullman writes: “As a Jew and university student in Washington, D.C., I watched as thousands marched in support of the ‘martyred militants’ of Hamas, an organization whose charter explicitly calls for the genocide of Jewry. Dispersed among the crowds were many of my classmates, people whom I once felt I could trust.”

Views From Gaza For Palestinians in Gaza, terror reigns. At Middle East Eye, Ghada Abed wrote last week: “As Israel appears to be preparing for a ground invasion, many people have been reflecting on the possibility of death, wondering what could happen and issuing heartfelt prayers. Many of my friends have sent farewell messages, seeking forgiveness from those they might have wronged. It feels as though a day of reckoning is drawing near. Children’s innocent questions echo with the weight of the world: Why do they kill us? When will they kill us? Will it be painful to be killed? How does it feel? Are we going to die all at once, or one by one? Are you coming with us? Will we be killed under the cover of night, or in the morning?”   At Jewish Currents, voices from Gaza (some anonymous) express fear, anger—and in one case, it should be acknowledged, both apparent pride at Hamas’s attacks and sadness for Israeli civilian victims. One Gazan interviewee tells the magazine: “This is the first war I’ve experienced where a vast majority of people are searching for water, bread, medicine. We are being treated like animals. But in other ways, it feels no different: In previous wars, we have lost beloved friends, neighbors, relatives. We’ve been deprived of our rights, blamed for our own suffering, failed by the international community.”

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