One of the most striking things about the ongoing conflict in Iran is how leading experts accurately predicted Tehran’s response to a U.S. attack, from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz to attacking U.S. bases in the region. Why didn’t U.S. President Donald Trump heed their advice? One can only surmise, but one reason could be that his administration had in fact fired several of the specialists who had studied Iran’s politics and history.
One of those experts is Nate Swanson, a career diplomat who served under multiple Democratic and Republican administrations over more than two decades. Swanson was a director for Iran at the National Security Council in the Biden White House. He then served as a member of the Iran negotiating team in Trump’s second term before he was purged from government, along with many other diplomats.
Trump “wanted something historic,” said Swanson, speaking on FP Live about the president’s objectives on Iran when he began his second term. “He either wanted a historic deal or something big and splashy.”
“I believe he went to war because he thought it was in his best interest. …What I think was unique about this, though, is that even though [his] principals harbored real doubts about whether it would work, they were afraid to share it with the president. So instead, they just leaked it out after the fact to try to clear their own name.”
Subscribe to the FP Live podcast to automatically download it—it’s free! The conversation with Swanson includes his analysis on why the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding failed, Trump’s unique management style, and why American policymakers have struggled to meet their goals in the Middle East.
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