Atlantic Council - AC Intel - Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - by Katherine Golden -

 

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View in browser Tuesday, June 16, 2026 Katherine Golden, AC Intel Anchor As leaders from the Group of Seven countries gather in Évian-les-Bains, France for their annual summit, many of the headlines have focused not on announcements regarding top issues on the agenda but rather on what the leaders have whispered over hot mics.   So to get a sense of what the leaders have actually achieved thus far, I rang up our econ experts Josh Lipsky (who has been to several of these summits as a former International Monetary Fund and White House official) and Alisha Chhangani. Here’s what my hot mic picked up:    JOSH: The situation looming over the G7 is a secret US-Iran memorandum of understanding that no one has seen other than the US and the Iranians but that impacts everyone around the table. So every question with the media, when they come in the room, is what’s in the MOU? France has its own agenda and wants to talk AI and trade imbalances. But the MOU is dominating the conversation.   ALISHA: But we’ve seen some ground made on some of the conversations we thought were going to be tough. [US President Donald] Trump has hinted that he could put pressure on Russia through sanctions, specifically by reimposing oil sanctions. They also agreed on things like how to tackle Ebola and on research and innovation around cancer, for example. There is the looming concern with Trump being there and the volatility with his presidency and what he’ll bring to the G7. But so far, things aren’t as bad as I thought they would be.   JOSH: You’ve got them sitting around the table, they’re chitchatting. In a hot mic moment, [Canadian Prime Minister Mark] Carney was explaining to Trump why Canada plans to import a capped number of Chinese electric vehicles, and then Trump responded positively. You also have [German Chancellor Friedrich] Merz giving Trump a soccer jersey. Given the fact that there were trade wars and there remain tensions in the relationship over issues like Greenland and Iran, it’s almost surprising the feeling of collegiality at the table. The fact that these people can spend two or three days with each other in person in a relatively secluded environment, it actually bears a lot of fruit later on when there’s a crisis. The next time there’s a problem—trade war, conflict—it is different when you can draw on the personal relationship you’ve had with this person.   And as both Josh and Alisha tell me, it’s also important to note who was at the chummy table—particularly the leaders who aren’t part of the G7. Your AC Intel starts there.  1. Don’t forget this summit’s VIGs (very important guests) As G7 leaders meet with representatives from the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt, Alisha explains on the BBC that it was important for these countries to join the discussions because the United States “will need regional buy in” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  WATCH 2. On China, the G7 is finally aligned Josh tells NPR to anticipate a summit outcome related to “China’s exports,” since Europe and the United States have reached “cohesion” on the need to address Chinese industrial overcapacity—to such an extent that Beijing wants in on the conversation.  LISTEN Read our Dispatches Reports from the front lines of global policy—by the experts shaping it. Discover more 3. Expect the US to make “significant concessions” in its deal with Iran Drawing on his experience negotiating with Iran, Brett McGurk argues on CNN that US secrecy about what is in the deal, which was already virtually signed, “tells you something about what’s actually in the text.” His prediction: “The president decided basically to concede on many of Iran’s points,” from sanctions to frozen assets.  WATCH 4. What the US-Iran deal won’t achieve Former US Defense Department official Alex Plitsas tells CNN’s Jake Tapper that there won’t be much beyond “some sort of economic incentives” to stop Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz in the future, meaning that Iranian officials, now even more empowered by low-cost drones, “could do this again at any point of their choosing.”  WATCH   FUTURE INTEL   Two US senators tell us what to expect at the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara  Tomorrow, Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis discuss US and allied goals for the NATO Summit, and reflect on allies’ progress toward their defense-spending commitments and support for Ukraine.  REGISTER Receive this email from a friend? Click to subscribe. Have feedback? Email our editors. At the Atlantic Council, we provide relevant and authoritative insight at speed and in depth. Engage with our experts in real time by following us on:   Support the Atlantic Council Atlantic Council, 1400 L Street NW, 11th Floor, Washington, DC, 20005 Unsubscribe Manage Preferences