Dear Colleague, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked, in the words of Finnish President Alexander Stubb, the end of the West’s “holiday from history.” Russia will almost surely emerge from the war in Ukraine unrepentant and determined to seek revenge against Ukraine and its Western partners. Vladimir Putin has left no doubt that he is committed to imposing a new reality where might makes right on the European continent and throughout Russia’s immediate neighborhood. It is tempting to hope that the shredding of Russia’s conventional military power over the past four years means that Moscow will not be able to threaten Europe or its neighbors for a long time to come. But the stark lesson of recent history is that betting on Russian weakness or the rationality of the Putin regime is a form of magical thinking. What kind of threat will Russia pose to global security over the next decade? The answer to that question requires a reassessment of the drivers of Russia’s belligerent external behavior and the economic, technological, and ideological resources that will be at the disposal of Putin and his successors for years to come. Mindful of the core Western national security interests at stake, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is launching an important initiative entitled “The Future of Russian Power.” Carnegie scholars based in Washington, Berlin, Kyiv, and other parts of the Endowment’s global network will examine these issues systematically while framing the critical policy choices facing Western policymakers. Eugene Rumer’s new paper on “Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine” is the first analytical offering from the new initiative and examines the enduring drivers of Russian threat perceptions and policy toward Europe, concluding that the unprovoked war with Ukraine has changed the Kremlin’s thinking in ways that will be profoundly destabilizing for all concerned. |
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This initiative continues Carnegie’s long tradition of non-partisan policy research on Russia, Ukraine, and the wider region that is second to none. We will continue to release new research and strategic insights from this important project in coming weeks. As always, I welcome your feedback on Carnegie’s work and thank you for your continued interest in our efforts. I hope you will follow our scholars and their research on major social media platforms and sign up for updates from our Washington-based team and from Carnegie Politika, which is produced by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
Sincerely, Andrew S. Weiss
Vice President for Studies
Russia and Eurasia Program |
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