United Against Nuclear IRAN - Eye on IRAN Iran Reportedly Executed At Least 901 People In 2024, UN Says | BBC

 United Against Nuclear IRAN - Eye on IRAN 

Iran Reportedly Executed At Least 901 People In 2024, UN Says | BBC

At least 901 people were reportedly executed in Iran last year, including about 40 in a single week in December, according to the UN human rights chief. "It is deeply disturbing that yet again we see an increase in the number of people subjected to the death penalty in Iran year-on-year," Volker Türk said. "It is high time Iran stemmed this ever-swelling tide of executions." The total is the highest recorded in nine years and marks a 6% increase from 2023, when 853 people were executed. Most of the executions were for drug-related offences, but dissidents and people connected to the 2022 protests were also executed, according to the UN. There was also a rise in the number of women executed.

Leader Of Japanese Crime Syndicate Pleads Guilty To Conspiring To Traffic Nuclear Materials To Iran | Associated Press

The purported leader of a Japan-based crime syndicate pleaded guilty Wednesday to charges alleging that he conspired to traffic uranium and plutonium from Myanmar in the belief that Iran would use it for nuclear weapons. Takeshi Ebisawa, 60, of Japan, entered the plea in Manhattan federal court to weapons and narcotics trafficking charges that carry a mandatory minimum of 10 years in prison and the possibility of life behind bars. Sentencing was set for April 9. Prosecutors say Ebisawa didn’t know he was communicating in 2021 and 2022 with a confidential source for the Drug Enforcement Administration along with the source’s associate, who posed as an Iranian general. Ebisawa was arrested in April 2022 in Manhattan during a DEA sting.

Iranian Foreign Minister Warns Of ‘Large-Scale War’ If Israel Attacks Again | The Times Of Israel

Iran’s top diplomat said Tehran is ready for any future Israeli attacks on the country, warning that such action could spark a wider conflagration, in comments aired Saturday. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s remarks to Chinese state-run media come amid rising concern that Iran could move toward pursuing a nuclear weapon as it is increasingly pushed into the corner following a series of devastating blows, coupled with the looming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who maintained a hawkish stance toward Tehran his last time in office. Speculation has also arisen that Israel may strike Iran in response to recurring ballistic missile attacks launched against Israel by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, which receive arms and other support from the Islamic Republic.

UANI IN THE NEWS

Fresh VLCC Sanctions Threaten To Leave Up To 12% Of Global Fleet On Blacklist, Analyst Warns | TradeWinds

Nearly 19m dwt-worth of VLCCs are under US sanctions, with more likely on the way. ABG Sundal Collier analyst Petter Haugen said on Thursday that 5% of the global tanker fleet is on the formal US blacklist, with VLCCs leading the way at 7% of a fleet that Clarksons pegs at just over 269m dwt. But he pointed out that the US pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has 12% of the total VLCC fleet on its list of dark fleet ships. If those vessels are sanctioned, it would boost the total by 13.4m dwt to 32.3m dwt. Haugen said sanctions are good for tankers overall. “We reiterate our non-contrarian view that if a meaningful share of the sanctioned fleet is prohibited from transporting crude, it would likely have a highly meaningful positive impact on the crude tanker market,” he said.

Iran Will Seize More Ships If Donald Trump Tightens Sanctions Screw, Says Ambrey | TradeWinds

Iran is likely to respond to any US crackdown on its oil exports during the presidency of Donald Trump with harassment and seizure of ships, according to security firm Ambrey. The incoming president has proposed Iran hawks for key foreign policy positions but any return to sanctions enforcement against Iran is likely to be piecemeal, according to the company’s assessment… United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which tracks tankers hauling Iran, has called for action against flag states and called for sanctions against masters. The influential US-based group in 2024 identified 132 new vessels engaged in shipping Iranian oil, bringing the total number of “ghost fleet” tankers it tracks to 477.

Iran's 2024 Oil Exports Exceeded 580 Million Barrels Despite US Sanctions | Baird Maritime

In 2024, despite US sanctions, Iran's oil exports remained high, benefiting from OPEC+ cuts and the ongoing lax enforcement of sanctions, US-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has confirmed. The high export figures helped the regime to bolster its economic resilience while continuing its support for human rights abuses and proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, UANI added. In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75 per cent compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil. For the sixth consecutive year since the launch of UANI’s Tanker Tracker, China was the largest importer of Iranian oil, receiving 533 million barrels (an increase of 24 per cent from 2023’s 431 million barrels), constituting 91 per cent of Iran’s total oil exports (an increase of eight per cent from 83 per cent in 2023).

Iran Holds Air Defense Drills Near Natanz Nuclear Plant | i24 News

Iranian air defense drills held near Natanz nuclear plant suggest Tehran is gearing up for a possible Israeli or American strike. “There's never a discussion about the risks associated with endless diplomacy with the Islamic Republic,” UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky says with Laura Cellier.

It Is Time To Make Britain A Khamenei-Free Zone | Jewish News

Last year, the Iranian regime celebrated the 45th anniversary of the revolution which brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power and ushered in more than four decades of brutal repression at home and the export of violence and terror across the Middle East and beyond. The ayatollahs have rather less to celebrate this year. Tehran’s two most powerful proxies – Hamas and Hezbollah – have been severely weakened as a result of their terrorist attacks against Israel; Iran’s attacks on the Jewish state appears to have led to the destruction of much of its air defence system; and the Assad regime – the cornerstone of Tehran’s strategy to encircle and destroy Israel – has fallen… Moreover, United Against A Nuclear Iran’s new campaign presents deeply concerning evidence of Khamenei’s pernicious network here in the UK, which seeks to promote the regime’s violent and extremist ideology, foster antisemitism and hatred, and stoke community tensions.

Report: China’s Shandong Port Group To Turn Away US-Sanctioned Oil Tankers | The Maritime Executive

China’s state-owned Shandong Port Group has reportedly announced a new policy for 2025 blocking tankers under U.S. sanctions from using its port facilities. Reuters released an exclusive report after traders shared copies of memos from the port regarding the new ban. […]  An enforcement of the ban would mark a critical blow, especially to Iran which ships the majority of its oil to China. Last week, the NGO United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI) cited data in its year-end report saying that Iran’s oil exports grew by 10.75 percent to 587 million barrels in 2024. China, it reported remains the largest destination and has grown its percentage of the trade receiving 533 million barrels, which UANI highlights is up 24 percent from 2023.

Make UK A ‘Khamenei-Free Zone’! Campaign Launches Outside Parliament | The Jewish Chronicle

Robert Jenrick, Lord Walney, Mike Tapp, Suella Braverman and Richard Tice supported calls for the UK to become a “Khamenei free zone” on Tuesday. Launching a new campaign, United Against Nuclear Iran (Uani), a policy group which combats the threats posed by the Islamic Republic, asked the government to shut down Ayatollah Khamenei’s British network, close his London base and other extremist hubs and expel regime representatives from the country. In October last year, MI5 confirmed that it had foiled at least 20 Khamenei regime-backed terror plots in the UK since 2022. Uani has also called on the government to crack down on support for the Iranian regime’s overseas paramilitary group, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Sanction Tanker Masters And Flag States To Stop Iran Shipping More Oil, Says Pressure Group | TradeWinds

US pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is calling for tougher measures on shadow fleet tankers as Iran’s oil exports increase. In its latest annual report, chief of staff Claire Jungman and research director Daniel Roth said that in 2024, despite US sanctions, crude shipments remained high, benefiting from Opec+ cuts and the ongoing lax enforcement of sanctions. Iran exported 587m barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to 2023, UANI figures showed. China was the largest buyer for the sixth straight year, importing 533m barrels, up 24% from the year before, the report found. This was 91% of Iran’s total shipments.

Email Hack Reveals Iranian Oil Smuggling Tactics, Per Report | Jewish News Syndicate

A leak of 10,000 hacked emails reveals more details about how the Iranian regime continues to evade Western oil sanctions, according to a new report from Reuters. The Prana hacker network first released the emails from the Sahara Thunder oil tanker shipping company in February. Sahara Thunder is an Iran-based front company for the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, which the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned in April… The Remy is just one piece of Iran’s “ghost fleet” of tankers that the Islamic Republic uses to illicitly move oil around the world. United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that advocates tougher U.S. measures against the Islamic Republic, maintains a database of more than 470 such vessels.

Campaign To ‘Make Britain A Khamenei-Free Zone’ Launches | Jewish News

United Against Nuclear Iran (Uani) launched their campaign this week by driving a large van with a billboard reading “Make Britain A Khamenei Free Zone” around Westminster. Conservative MPs Suella Bravermanm, Robert Jenrick and Reform UK’s Richard Tice confirmed their support for Uani’s demand for the government to close all hubs linked to the regime in Tehran, and expel all Iranian representatives. Unai also call for the government to proscribe Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, which is seen as the paramilitary force of the state abroad.

Iran’s Oil Exports Soar To 587M Barrels, Led By China’s Thirst | G Captain

Despite tightening Western sanctions, Iran’s oil exports reached 587 million barrels in 2024, marking a significant 10.75% increase from the previous year, with China emerging as the dominant buyer, according to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a non-profit organization tracking Iranian oil movements. The surge in exports highlights the regime’s growing ability to circumvent international restrictions to continue illicitly exporting oil. China’s role in Iran’s oil trade has become nearly absolute, with Chinese imports accounting for 91% of Iran’s total oil exports in 2024. The nation imported 533 million barrels, representing a substantial 24% increase from 2023, primarily driven by demand from Shandong province’s “teapot” refineries. “This year’s data trends reveal a regime that adapts quickly to enforcement measures, requiring equally dynamic responses in 2025,” notes UANI.

UANI Calls For New Enforcement Methods As Iran’s Oil Exports Grow | The Maritime Executive

The NGO United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which is at the forefront of tracking Iran’s dark tanker fleet and oil exports, is out with its year-end review citing continued dramatic growth in the dark tanker fleet supporting Iran’s oil exports. The group is calling for global cooperation and strategies that go beyond “traditional enforcement methods” in response to Iran’s ability to quickly adapt to the current sanctions and lax enforcement. UANI details key trends and shifts in the sanction-busting oil exports in its final Tanker Tracker of 2024 while highlighting continued strong growth in the number of tankers involved in the illicit trade. The group says in November 2020 it identified 70 foreign tankers involved in the Iranian oil trade while saying it has now grown to 477 tankers. UANI says it identified 132 new vessels engaged in the trade in 2024.

Iran’s Illegal Oil Exports Quadruple Under Biden’s Watch | Jewish Breaking News

A damning investigation by oil tanker tracking firms has exposed the spectacular collapse of Iran sanctions under President Joe Biden, with the Islamic Republic managing to export an astronomical 2 billion barrels of oil during his presidency. Data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler reveals the full scope of Biden’s policy failure. When he took office in January 2021, Iran’s daily oil exports were constrained to under 400,000 barrels, in large part due to Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy. By last year, that number had exploded to 1.6 million barrels per day. The regime’s sanctions-busting operation has also grown increasingly sophisticated. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) identified 132 new vessels joining Iran’s “ghost fleet,” bringing the total number of tankers involved in their illegal enterprise to 477. While UANI’s intelligence led to over 330 flag revocations and helped the U.S. government finally designate 139 vessels for sanctions, it comes as too little, too late, with Iran exporting 587 million barrels in 2024 alone.

Iran Exported Nearly 2 Billion Barrels Of Oil Under Biden Administration, UANI Says | Iran International

Iran has exported nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil over the past four years since US President Joe Biden took office, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) said in its annual Tanker Tracker report released on Friday. Despite ongoing US sanctions, Iran increased its output by more than 10 percent in 2024, according to the US-based advocacy group. China continued as the largest importer, receiving 533 million barrels, up 24% from the previous year, accounting for 91% of Iran’s total exports. The shift towards Iran's National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) for direct loadings marked a significant change in Iran's oil export strategy. Previously, foreign-flagged vessels were commonly used to transport oil directly from Iranian ports, circumventing sanctions.

Iran Sold 2 Billion Barrels Of Oil During Biden’s Presidency | Iran International

Data from oil tanker tracking firms reveal that during Joe Biden's presidency, Iran exported approximately 2 billion barrels of oil—a significaxfnt increase compared to the volumes recorded between 2019 and 2021. Details from Kpler, a commodity intelligence company, reveal that Iran, whose daily oil exports had fallen below 400,000 barrels in January 2021, at the start of the Biden Administration, exported 1.6 million barrels daily last year. Similarly, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, which also tracks oil tankers carrying Iranian oil, says “In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil.”

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM

The Risk Of Nuclear War Continues To Rise | The Hill

As the world became more dangerous in 2024, the use of its most dangerous weapons has become more likely. […] Iran may become a nuclear weapons state in response to Israel’s debilitating attacks on it and its proxies. This, in turn, has unleashed speculation as to whether Israel will preempt such a possibility by escalating the conflict with a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s closer cooperation with Russia and China has also increased concerns about further cooperation on developing Iran’s nuclear capacity. Looming over the deterioration of the nuclear guardrails and contributing to lowering the nuclear threshold is China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear force in 2024.

Iran's Nuclear Programme Nearing Point Of No Return, France's Macron Says | Reuters

Iran's disputed uranium enrichment drive is nearing a point of no return and European partners to a moribund 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran should consider reimposing sanctions if there is no progress with Tehran, France's president said on Monday. Addressing an annual conference with French ambassadors to outline foreign policy objectives in 2025, President Emmanuel Macron described Iran as the main "strategic and security challenge" for France and Europe. "The acceleration of the nuclear programme leads us nearly to the point of no return," Macron said. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes and has stepped up the programme since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the 2015 deal during his first term of office and restored tough U.S. sanctions on Tehran.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS

How Iran Moves Sanctioned Oil Around The World | Reuters

“Despite some of the West’s toughest sanctions, Iran has built a roaring global trade for its oil. It relies on a shadow fleet of tankers that conceal their activities to skirt sanctions, and willing buyers in Asia to keep its economy afloat and to finance anti-Western militias in the Middle East.  Tehran's oil exports brought in $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion a year earlier, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates, and output during 2024 was running at its highest since 2018, based on OPEC data. It was former U.S. President Donald Trump who ditched the West's nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil in 2018. Set to return to the White House in January, Trump is expected to once again target Iran's oil industry with "maximum pressure", say Iranian, Arab and Western officials.”

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS

Iran Puts On Show Of Force With War Games Ahead Of Trump's Second Term | CBS News

Iran's military forces were four days into extensive drills on Wednesday that many believe are essentially preparations for how the country could react to a U.S., Israeli or combined attack on its nuclear facilities. Brigadier Gen. Mohammad-Nazar Azimi, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Najaf Ashraf West Headquarters, has touted the nationwide drills as including "new weapons and equipment." Azimi also said the exercises would test the capabilities of Iran's Basij paramilitary forces, who are tasked with maintaining domestic security. The war games are likely aimed not only at demonstrating Iran's ability to respond to and defend against an attack from outside the country, but also to ensure the Basij are ready to quash any domestic uprising against the country's Islamic cleric rulers that could be precipitated by such an attack.

Israel’s Red Sea Conundrum: Hit The Houthis Or Iran | The Wall Street Journal

Over the past year, Israel’s military has proved adept at taking down threats to the country’s security. After the initial shock of the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, Hamas’s top leadership has been largely neutralized. Iran’s other big ally in the region, Hezbollah, was set back severely in Lebanon. Now Israel is setting its sights on the Houthi rebel group in Yemen, who represent a lingering problem, regularly firing missiles at Israel—and it is a problem with few clear ways to handle. […] “Against terror from Yemen, our solution lies in Tehran,” said Benny Gantz, a former senior official in the current Israeli government, a former defense minister and now a leading opposition figure, in a press conference at the end of December. Gantz argued that while Israel would be fighting Iran’s allies for years to come, the country now has an opportunity for a “strategic flip” against Iran by fighting it directly.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

Iran Holds Military Drills As It Faces Rising Economic Pressures And Trump’s Return | Associated Press

Iran is reeling from a cratering economy and stinging military setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East. Its bad times are likely to get worse once President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. Facing difficulties at home and abroad, Iran last week began an unusual two-month-long military drill. It includes testing air defenses near a key nuclear facility and preparing for exercises in waterways vital to the global oil trade. The military flexing seems aimed at projecting strength, but doubts about its power are high after the past year’s setbacks. The December overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Iran supported for years with money and troops, was a major blow to its self-described “Axis of Resistance” across the region.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN

Iran Was ‘Defeated Very Badly’ In Syria, A Top General Admits | The New York Times

Iran’s top ranking general in Syria has contradicted the official line taken by Iran’s leaders on the sudden downfall of their ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a remarkably candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in the country. An audio recording of the speech, given last week by Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati at a mosque in Tehran, surfaced publicly on Monday in Iranian media, and was a stark contrast to the remarks of Iran’s president, foreign minister and other top leaders. They have for weeks downplayed the magnitude of Iran’s strategic loss in Syria last month, when rebels swept Mr. al-Assad out of power, and said Iran would respect any political outcome decided by Syria’s people.

Iran Pulls Most Forces From Syria, In Blow To Tehran’s Regional Ambitions | The Wall Street Journal

Iranian forces have largely withdrawn from Syria following the Assad regime’s December collapse, according to U.S., European and Arab officials, in a significant blow to Tehran’s strategy for projecting power in the Middle East. The Iranian withdrawal marks the demise of a yearslong effort in which Tehran used Syria as a hub in its broader regional strategy of partnering with regimes and allied militias to spread influence and wage proxy war against the U.S. and Israel. Iranian-backed armed groups in Syria have launched attacks on U.S. forces and aided in attacks on Israel. Members of Iran’s elite Quds Force have now fled to Iran and the militia groups have disbanded, a senior U.S. official said. The Islamic Republic spent billions of dollars and sent thousands of military personnel and allied fighters to Syria after the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

CHINA & IRAN

Iran Pushes China To Let It Sell $1.7 Billion Worth Of Stranded Oil, Sources Say | Reuters

Iran is pushing to recoup 25 million barrels of oil from China that has been stuck for six years in Chinese ports due to sanctions imposed by then-U.S. President Donald Trump, three Iranian and one Chinese source familiar with the matter said. Trump is returning to power on Jan. 20, and analysts say he is expected to tighten sanctions again on Iranian oil exports to limit Tehran's income, as he did during his first term as president. China, which says it does not recognise unilateral sanctions, has been buying about 90% of Tehran's oil exports in recent years at discounts that have saved its refiners billions of dollars. But the stranded oil, worth $1.75 billion at today's prices, highlights the challenges Iran is facing with selling oil even in China.

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Italian Journalist Cecilia Sala Freed From Detention In Iran, Italian PM’s Office Says | CNN

Italian journalist Cecilia Sala has been freed from an Iranian prison and is on a plane home, a spokesperson for the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Wednesday, weeks after she was arrested while reporting in Tehran. Sala is a reporter for the Italian daily Il Foglio, which said the journalist was held in Tehran’s Evin prison after being detained in mid-December while covering “a country she knows and loves.” On Wednesday, Meloni’s office said: “The plane that is bringing journalist Cecilia Sala home took off a few minutes ago from Tehran. “Thanks to intense work on diplomatic and intelligence channels, our compatriot has been released by the Iranian authorities and is returning to Italy,” the statement added.

MISCELLANEOUS

Iran Says Swiss National Held On Espionage Charges Kills Himself In Prison | Associated Press

A Swiss national detained in Iran on espionage charges killed himself Thursday at a prison in rural Semnan province, state media reported. The report by the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency did not identify the man, only saying the man had asked his cellmate to bring him food and then killed himself while he was alone. “Efforts to save him were unsuccessful,” Mizan quoted Mohammad Sadegh Akbari, the head of the province’s justice department, as saying. Semnan prison is some 180 kilometers (110 miles) east of Tehran, Iran’s capital. Pierre-Alain Eltschinger, a spokesman for the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, confirmed the death in an e-mail.

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