Ali Tuygan (Rtd. ambassador) : Controlled Escalation in the Middle East

 Controlled Escalation in the Middle East

Posted on April 15, 2024 by Ali Tuygan

April 15, 2024

Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, I have held the view that Iran will continue to support its Middle East proxies but not to the brink of war with Israel. I still do.

Although Washington and its Western partners remained silent on the attack and ignored its international law dimension, Israel’s bombing of Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1 marked an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran. Tehran’s response was to fire more than 300 drones and missiles on Israel. Of these, 99%  were intercepted overnight by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. The US, UK, and France also helped to intercept the massive barrage of drones Iran fired. Thus, only several missiles reached Israeli territory, causing minor damage to an air base. There were no casualties.

The enmity between Israel and Iran needs no elaboration. However, the Israeli attack on Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus was an act of war going beyond the hitherto known parameters of the long-running shadow war between the two countries. In today’s world, no country can bomb its enemy’s embassy in a foreign capital and get away with it. Thus, Tehran felt that it had to respond not only to reaffirm its regional status but also to prove to its people that it could stand up to the Israeli challenge. But Tehran acted with caution knowing that its calibrated missile and drone attack on Israel would cause only negligible damage and would not justify an immediate and massive Israeli military response against Iranian territory. In other words, Iran’s was a cautious response. Moreover, after the attack, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abdollahian, said on social media that “at this point, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no intention of continuing defensive operations, but if necessary it will not hesitate to protect its legitimate interests against any new aggression.”

Following Iran’s attack Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that the confrontation with Iran is “not over yet”. However, it is clear that Washington while expressing “ironclad support” for Israel is strongly advising Prime Minister Netanyahu not to overreact. Reportedly, according to a White House official, President Biden has also told Prime Minister Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any Israeli counter-offensive against Iran. Because Washington knows that a new military involvement in the region, on top of the war in Ukraine, will overload its global agenda and push the “pivot to Asia” far into the future.

The Iranian attack with no casualties or damage must have given Mr. Netanyahu his first moment of joy since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Firstly, despite calls for restraint, the attack has once again rallied the West behind Israel helping to break its growing isolation. Secondly, the urgency of preventing a regional conflagration may strengthen his hand in relations with Washington. Thirdly, the prospect of an all-out Iran-Israel war may overtake, at least temporarily, concerns over the loss of civilian life and devastation in Gaza. And lastly, it could be that the attack would increase his domestic political support.

From now on, the world’s attention will focus on Mr. Netanyahu trying to guess how he might use the Iran attack to put the Gaza ordeal behind him and reclaim his leadership of Israel. In his first comments, after the downing of Iranian missiles and drones, Mr. Netanyahu said “We have intercepted, we have contained. Together we shall win.” Probably, the unwritten last part of his message  is, “So will I.”