Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. March 20, 2024 |
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power for a reason, despite emerging criticism from Washington. President Joe Biden seems frustrated with Netanyahu. (The two view the war in Gaza very differently: Biden wants a ceasefire, no Israeli operation in the Gazan town of Rafah, and a Palestinian state. Netanyahu wants the opposite—and to fight Hamas to the end.) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), America’s highest-ranking Jewish official and a longtime supporter of Israel, publicly broke with Netanyahu last week and called for new Israeli elections. Biden praised Schumer’s speech; so did former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). The Democratic establishment, which Biden leads, seems to have turned on Netanyahu. In yesterday’s Global Briefing, we noted a series of recommendations by Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman and political scientist and former congressional aide Jonah Blank (writing in Foreign Affairs), as to how Biden might coerce his Israeli counterpart into changing course. Biden could restrict US military aid to Israel, stop defending Israel at the UN, enact sanctions on right-wing Israeli politicians, and/or back away from incentivizing Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel, they wrote. The US president could follow the above recommendations, Haaretz columnist Anshel Pfeffer suggests, but instead he appears to be targeting Netanyahu individually. And that, Pfeffer argues, is a fruitless endeavor, for one big reason: No one in Israel is positioned to oust Netanyahu from power. A cross-ideological coalition of particularly savvy Israeli politicians could do it, but they don’t seem keen to replace Netanyahu with the likely alternative, Benny Gantz, Pfeffer writes. No one else, Pfeffer argues, has the political acumen to force an election and steer the outcome. (Wall Street Journal columnist William A. Galston agrees on the broad point, arguing Schumer went too far in calling for Netanyahu’s ouster and misread Israeli politics, underestimating sentiments in favor of continuing the war against Hamas.) For now, Pfeffer writes, “Biden is not only wasting his time by targeting Netanyahu, he’s probably helping him to portray himself as the brave leader standing up for Israel against the entire hostile world.” To that point, Politico Europe’s Jamie Dettmer suggests Netanyahu and his allies may consider calling new elections themselves, to capitalize on perceived US hostility and reaffirm their position in power. |
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Bolsonaro, Former Presidents, and the Rule of Law |
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is back in the news, indicted for allegedly having falsified his Covid-19 vaccination data while president. (Bolsonaro’s lawyer denied the charges.) It’s not the first legal trouble for Bolsonaro since his presidency ended in a Brazilian version of Jan. 6: Last June, Brazil’s federal election court barred Bolsonaro from holding public office until 2030 for his conduct during the 2022 election, when Bolsonaro spread unfounded doubts about the reliability of Brazil’s voting systems. At the World Politics Review, James Bosworth picks up on the electoral saga, noting that last week, military officials implicated Bolsonaro in a plan (never executed) to declare martial law and stop his campaign rival, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from taking office. Bolsonaro had previously denied such allegations. Throughout Latin America—and in the US—the issue of prosecuting former leaders for alleged misdeeds is a tricky issue, Bosworth writes: “Advocates for government transparency and human rights often argue that the best way to deter future presidents from abusing power is to hold to account those leaders who have done so in the past. That’s likely correct over a long timeframe. But in the short term, it incentivizes corrupt leaders to commit even worse abuses of democracy to keep from ever losing power, whether it rests in their own hands or those of their loyalists. … Democracy’s defenders across the region must maintain their vigilance—and pressure on those seeking to undermine democracy—all the way through inauguration day.” |
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Haiti has devolved into chaos. Gangs control most of the capital and, having laid siege to the airport in Port-au-Prince, blocked Prime Minister Ariel Henry from returning to the country from abroad. Henry said last week that he will resign. On Sunday’s GPS, Fareed heard from author and The Nation contributing editor Amy Wilentz that Haiti is now “moving toward” becoming a “narco-state,” a development that could prompt new emigration. Calming the situation could be impossible without a military or police force that can equal the gangs, Wilentz warned. |
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A Foreign-Policy Election? |
Foreign policy doesn’t usually determine the outcome of US elections. Could 2024 be different? An Associated Press/NORC poll, conducted Nov. 30–Dec. 4, found that “(f)oreign policy issues top the public’s agenda for 2024, followed by economic concerns.” The pollsters asked respondents to volunteer five issues they would like the government to be working on in 2024. 38% listed foreign-policy issues other than immigration. As an issue category, foreign policy was followed by immigration (listed by 35% of respondents), inflation (30%), the economy generally (24%), and more. At The New Yorker, Benjamin Wallace-Wells briefly probes the domestic US politics of foreign policy, noting that the issue of Russia’s war on Ukraine “has become polarized” in the US and that Biden’s support for Israel amid the Gaza war has incurred domestic political blowback. Wallace-Wells concludes: “A spring of disorder looms, not only in Gaza but also in Ukraine, with concerns that Russia is positioning for a renewed offensive, and in Haiti, whose Prime Minister has announced his resignation, unable to return to a country largely controlled by gangs. In the fall, voters will have their say. Biden and the Democrats seem to be coming to the view that, by then, they will be judged … on how effectively they can safeguard order.” |
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