BROOKINGS COMMENTARY Is progress possible when Biden and Xi meet? Ryan Hass October 25, 2023

 BROOKINGS

COMMENTARY

Is progress possible when Biden and Xi meet?

Ryan Hass

October 25, 2023

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 

leaders'summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. 

The U.S.-China relationship in recent months has shown signs of stabilizing, at

least on the surface. Several factors have contributed to this seeming

flattening of the trajectory of relations. First, there is alignment in

expectations. Neither Washington nor Beijing holds false hopes of

breakthroughs or dramatic improvements in relations. Second, leaders in both

countries — each for their own reasons — see the benefit of capping tensions at

current levels. And third, advisors to President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping have

held intensive consultations since June to set the stage for a meeting between both

leaders on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leader’s summit in

mid-November in San Francisco.

The resumption of U.S.-China high-level engagement has restored several habits that

previously supported stability and predictability in relations. These include a reciprocal

commitment to “no surprises” for managing relations. Even as both sides continue to

take actions they view as protective but the other side views as unfriendly, they have

each previewed their actions privately to the other side in advance to clarify the

intentions and limits of their respective approaches. Both sides have set up diplomatic

channels to address specific issues, such as export controls, commercial issues, and

strategic concerns. Washington and Beijing also have resumed with

each other on global crises, such as following the outbreak of conflict between Israel

and Hamas.

Under the surface, though, tensions continue to boil. Neither side has resolved nor

lessened any significant challenges in the relationship. Increased frequency of

communication has not yielded convergence around key issues. Instead, the

relationship has settled into a period of communication without concessions in either

direction.

This is the atmosphere in which Biden and Xi will sit down with each other in

November. The meeting will afford both leaders an opportunity to demonstrate

statesmanship at a time of heightened volatility in the international system.

It remains too soon to tell whether both leaders will be able to demonstrate that

diplomacy delivers results. With creativity, though, there is an opportunity for both

coordinating sides to get much of what they most seek by reviving the timeworn practice of trading 

form for substance.

China’s goals for the meeting

For Beijing, optics are ever important. Chinese officials will want to project to their

domestic audience that Xi is received by Biden with dignity and respect. They will be

interested in highlighting both leaders engaging amicably with each other and

investing personally in guiding the relationship. Accomplishing this will require imagery

of both leaders interacting on a personal basis beyond the customary handshake in

front of a bank of flags in a hotel conference room. Such visuals could be achieved by

having both leaders take a brief walk together, share a meal, or simply converse with

each other one-on-one away from a formal delegation-style meeting.

Every indication suggests Xi’s view of U.S. intentions toward China remains quite dim.

For tactical reasons, though, Xi would prefer to project capacity to stabilize relations.

Particularly when Xi faces a confidence deficit inside China for overseeing a softening

economy and increasingly strained foreign relations, the image of Xi being accorded

more than a customary meeting with Biden will hold added value for him. It will give

Beijing an opportunity to show a domestic audience that Xi remains capable of

recalibrating relations with the United States, a step that many in Beijing view as key

for China’s ability to manage relations with U.S. allies in Asia, Europe, and elsewhere.

With an election in Taiwan looming in January 2024, Beijing appears to be trying to

in its preferred direction. Xi will seek clarification from Biden that the

United States does not favor any candidate or political party in Taiwan. He will seek

reassurance that the United States does not support Taiwan independence. Biden

should privately reiterate the United States’ longstanding policy

 With an election in Taiwan looming in January 2024, Beijing appears to be trying to

in its preferred direction. Xi will seek clarification from Biden that the

United States does not favor any candidate or political party in Taiwan. He will seek

reassurance that the United States does not support Taiwan independence. Biden

should privately reiterate the United States’ longstanding policy 

With an election in Taiwan looming in January 2024, Beijing appears to be trying to

in its preferred direction. Xi will seek clarification from Biden that the

United States does not favor any candidate or political party in Taiwan. He will seek

reassurance that the United States does not support Taiwan independence. Biden

should privately reiterate the United States’ longstanding policy Washington does

not support Taiwan independence and opposes any unilateral changes to the status

quo in the Taiwan Strait. Washington also opposes outside interference in Taiwan’s

electoral process. Biden should stress to Xi that the views of Taiwan’s more than 23

million people will be decisive to Taiwan’s future, and if China wants to pull Taiwan

closer, it should focus on addressing Taiwan’s top interests and concerns.

America’s objectives for the meeting

In return, the United States will want to lock in concrete progress on its priorities,

foremost among them reducing the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China.

Fentanyl-related deaths are now the for Americans from the

ages of 18-45. This scourge touches every congressional district and community in

America.

China deserves credit for fentanyl as a banned substance in 2019. This

decision, which President Donald Trump successfully lobbied President Xi to take,

saved American lives. Unfortunately, a handful of pharmaceutical companies in China

have since designed precursor chemicals that are not covered by the 2019 fentanyl

ban. These precursor chemicals are being sold openly

(https://www.brookings.edu/articles/china-and-synthetic-drugs-control-fentanylmethamphetamines-

and-precursors/) and making their way to Mexico, where drug cartels are mixing them with fentanyl and then smuggling the lethal drugs into the United States. It would be impactful if Biden and Xi could 

agree to instruct their law enforcement agencies to take concrete and robust steps to counter precursor flows.

Unlocking durable progress along these lines may require 

Washington to theChinese Ministry of Public Security’s Institute of 

Forensic Science from Trump-era sanctions, a decision the Biden 

administration should be prepared to take in service of

saving American lives.

Additionally, the United States and China are the world’s two leaders in artificialintelligence (AI). They both would benefit from establishing a to exchange views on AI governance and safety. It also would be mutually beneficial for both leaders to affirm the value of having each other’s students, scholars, scientists, artists,

athletes, and subnational leaders in more regular contact with each other. They could agree to expand flight routes, make visa processes simpler, and encourage exchanges in both directions for law-abiding citizens.

The United States and China also possess unique capacities to address human suffering. Previously, both countries coordinated responses to crises ranging from the global financial crisis to conflict in Sudan and the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa.

Both countries’ baleful responses to COVID-19 demonstrated the consequences of failure to jointly confront common challenges. The United States and China once again have an opportunity to demonstrate leadership with wars raging in Ukraine and

Israel/Gaza. They could agree to strengthen coordination on the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Palestinians, unimpeded movement of grain through the Black Sea, and reconstruction plans in Ukraine and Gaza. Given their unique leverage with different actors in both conflicts, they also could coordinate efforts to limit

escalation and the expansion of violence in either theater.

Beyond such specific issues, though, both leaders have an opportunity to use this meeting to create a lasting impact by setting a direction for the bilateral relationship for the year ahead. With presidential elections approaching in the United States in

2024, it is unlikely the two leaders will meet in person in the year ahead. The absence of leader-level face-to-face interaction will increase the premium on ensuring that both leaders’ advisors understand their marching orders for managing relations.

Countering the critics

Some members of Congress, presidential hopefuls, and commentators can be expected to argue that the United States is being played by China — caught in an engagement trap of substituting meetings for action to protect Americans against

Chinese predation. This analysis will be loud and wrong. Here’s why:

The United States is continuing to strengthen its competitive position even as it rebuilds diplomatic connections with China. The United States is tightening its alliance relationships in Asia and Europe to address challenges posed by China. Washington also is strengthening export controls, investment restrictions, and military deterrencein Asia.

The United States remains the stronger power in the relationship by a significant margin. It can afford magnanimity. Washington’s task is .

Only Chinese can do that, and Beijing is doing a decent job of it currently.

Washington’s job is to chart a direction for the relationship that serves U.S. interests.

Lowering the risk of inadvertent crises and eliciting greater Chinese contributions toglobal challenges does just that.

Biden is a pragmatist and a politician. He surely will understand that a strong majority of Americans want the U.S. approach toward China to be firm, smart, and diplomatic.

According to recent by National Security Action and Foreign Policy for America, 73% of Americans support high-level diplomatic talks with China. Only 13% want an aggressive approach and 5% want a confrontational one. Seventy-eight percent of Americans want their leaders to focus more on working to avoid a military conflict with China, while only 22% say leaders should focus more on preparing for one.

Stabilizing relations with China while remaining firm in defense of U.S. interests and values would enjoy broad public support within the United States. Likewise, Xi would benefit in China if he can demonstrate progress in recalibrating relations with the United States.

Both leaders have an opportunity to advance their respective interests when they meet in San Francisco. Time will tell whether they prove capable of seizing it.

AUTHORS

Ryan Hass Director  - John L. Thornton China Center, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center, Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies