EDITOR'S PICKS from the Atlantic Council, Ohimai Amaize, Social Media Editor, AUGUST 19, 2023

 

EDITOR'S PICKS from the Atlantic Council

This week's edition brought to you by Ohimai Amaize, Social Media Editor

AUGUST 19, 2023 | Tuesday marked exactly two years since Kabul fell to the Taliban. If there’s one thing national security strategists have learned from US missteps in Afghanistan, it’s the importance of planning for worst-case scenarios. What’s done cannot be undone, but as a Chinese proverb goes, “The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second-best time is now.” This week’s Editors’ Picks explore what kind of trees policymakers should be planting to confront challenges from a potential two-front war with China and North Korea to tremors in the US credit system to a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan.

Battle ready. Could the US face a simultaneous conflict with China and North Korea? There’s a real chance, says Markus Garlauskas, who previously served as US national intelligence officer for North Korea. In a new report this week, Markus argues that US policy often overlooks the real risk of fighting both powers at the same time and underestimates the possibility of a limited nuclear strike by either nation in the event of a conflict in the region. The Chinese military, he contends, has reorganized itself to prepare to fight a two-front war, while both Beijing and Pyongyang continue to develop the sophistication and size of their nuclear arsenals. The US and its allies can no longer think about conflicts with China and North Korea in isolation from each other, Markus warns. Navigate the full report here.

Mind the gap. Tensions have recently escalated around the Suwalki Gap, a narrow corridor linking Poland to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Flanked by Belarus and Kaliningrad, Russia’s heavily militarized Baltic exclave, this strategic passage is a potential flashpoint. Ian Brzezinski, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy, warns that the three Baltic countries would be cut off from the rest of NATO if Vladimir Putin moves to seize the corridor. Ian believes recent Belarusian military actions near the corridor are “unsurprisingly consistent with provocations by Putin.” His solution? A no-notice NATO exercise in the Suwalki Gap, deploying maritime, air, and ground assets. Will NATO respond in time?  Bridge the gap with expert insights.

Alarm bells. The US economy is on shaky ground, and accomplished economist and IMF veteran Hung Tran is sounding the alarm. First, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+, then Moody’s downgraded ten regional banks and put six others on notice. While US officials criticize the decisions and the markets are dismissing the downgrades as negligible, Hung says they should be seen as “much-needed warnings for the US public and private sectors to put their fiscal houses in order so as to better navigate the stormy weather ahead.” Check out Hung’s full forecast.

Vive la resistance! Two years after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the situation in the country remains dire. The status quo is not sustainable, says Nasir Andisha, ambassador and permanent representative of Afghanistan to the United Nations in Geneva. According to Nasir, the Taliban reneged on the promises they made during the Doha negotiation process while the international community has turned its back. The burden of resolving the current crisis now falls on Afghanistan’s younger generation, which is forming a “mass resistance and reform movement.” Read Nasir’s path to the future.

Black sheep. Russia’s exit from the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative dealt a blow to Ukraine’s economy and fueled a global food crisis. But there’s another issue lurking under the surface, argues Melinda Haring of the charity Razom for Ukraine: Moscow is moving to make the Black Sea—a body of water shared by seven countries—a de facto “Russian lake.” This is part of Russia’s strategy to cut off Ukraine’s access to global markets, she explains. There are ways the West can push back, Melinda says, such as giving Ukraine anti-ship missiles, providing insurance for Ukrainian grain traders, or beefing up a Greek port that could be a new storage location for Ukrainian grain. Read how a Black Sea strategy could come together.