A War of Nerves
April 27, 2026
Merriam-Webster defines the title of this post as “a conflict characterized by psychological tactics (such as bluff, threats, and intimidation) designed primarily to create confusion, indecision, or breakdown of morale”. The targeting and seizures of ships by both Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US naval operations against Iran expanded to the Indian Ocean, the arrival in the region of the third US aircraft carrier can be considered acts of intimidation. Doing his part, Israel’s Minister Katz has said that Israel is “prepared to resume the war against Iran”, adding that his country is awaiting a green light from the US to return Iran to “the Stone Age”.
Trump, after days of endless conflicting remarks to the media, decided to continue with the blockade of the Strait, but extended the ceasefire until “Iran’s proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” He said that the ceasefire is extended because Iran’s leadership – decimated by the war – is fractured and needs time to come up with a proposal to end the conflict.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US blockade of Iranian ports was an “act of war” and thus a violation of the ceasefire. In response, Iran imposed its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Interestingly, Washington has said that the seizure by Iran of non-American ships is not a violation of the ceasefire.
Before the war, the Strait was an international waterway free for the passage of ships of all nations. Today, however, Tehran appears determined not only to regulate passage but also to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait.
According to the White House, the US is completely strangling Iran’s economy through this blockade; Iranians are losing $500m a day; they can’t move oil in and out; and the Iranian leadership can’t even pay their own people as a result of this economic leverage that President Trump has inflicted over them. Reportedly, the US Navy has turned back 27 ships since the blockade began.
However, it is not only Iran that is paying the price. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has said that with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world is now facing the worst energy crisis ever. Before the war, about a fifth of the world’s oil supply and a significant share of its natural gas went through the Strait.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has dire security and economic consequences for the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).[i]
Trump has said that the US Navy has started mine-clearing operations to open the Strait of Hormuz. Reportedly, however, it could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military.[ii]
As the New York Times has reported, the Asia-Pacific has been the war’s first and worst zone of impact outside the Middle East. It is vulnerable because it relies heavily on energy imports from the Middle East. And its huge economies are deeply integrated, with complex supply chains that crisscross borders.
Thus, while Washington is after winning by ruining the Iranian economy, Iran is seeking to gain leverage to increase global pressure on Trump to end the war.
A decades-old US law allows the president to wage war without congressional approval for only 60 days. Thus, as of May 1st, Trump will also come under domestic pressure to seek congressional approval to continue the war.
Trump says that there was “no time pressure” on his extension of the ceasefire with Iran, he is “not in a rush” to end the conflict, and he wants a “good deal”. Yet, beyond a shadow of a doubt, he would prefer quick results before the approaching November midterm elections, where “affordability” is likely to be a campaign issue.
Although Iranians are forever negotiators, Iran’s economic downturn is also forcing the current leadership into a deal at some point. Yet, they may believe, at this juncture, that they have a chance of playing for time. There is no question that the leadership structures in Iran are shifting. However, despite the reports about a “fractured leadership”, a regime change in Tehran is not in the cards, at least in the near future.
“The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” Trump has said. In other words, he is after a “JCPOA PLUS”. The question is whether the word “plus” will be written in majuscules or minuscules.[iii]
Today, the two sides appear to be in an active stalemate. Talks are resumed in some form, and the war would end at some point, but not with a final peace agreement. Disagreements will persist, the top one being diametrically opposite views regarding the “winner” of this “having the upper hand” game.
[i] https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/04/iran-war-stress-test-gulf-states
[ii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/22/iran-hormuz-mines/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert
[iii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/22/trump-iran-negotiations-obama/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert
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