US – Turkiye Relations in the Re-Trump Term Kaynak : Invist strategic consulting ( www.invistsc.com)

 US – Turkiye Relations in the Re-Trump Term 

Kaynak : Invist strategic consulting

( www.invistsc.com)

After the reelection of Donald Trump, Erdoğan was among the first international leaders to congratulate Trump on his apparent victory. "I congratulate my friend Donald Trump, who won the presidential election in the U.S. after a great struggle and was reelected,” Erdoğan said in a message released on his X account, and said that he “hopes Turkish-U.S. relations grow stronger and that regional and global crises and wars, especially the one in Palestine and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.”

 Under a Trump victory, the following developments in US-Turkiye relations can be expected:

 • Turkish President Erdoğan would find favor in Trump’s personalized and transactional leadership style. However, despite initial advantages, US-Turkiye relations are still likely to face significant strains during Trump's presidency. 

• Trump is unlikely to take substantial measures to address Turkiye’s human rights issues, minimizing their presence on the bilateral agenda. 

• Trump is expected to proceed with withdrawing US troops from Iraq by the end of 2025, pursuant to the existing US-Baghdad agreement. This move could have substantial consequences for Turkiye, potentially creating a security void that affects both Iraq and Syria, challenging Turkiye’s Iraq Development Corridor project, and bolstering Iran’s influence. 

• A more assertive US policy on Iran under Trump may add tension to US-Turkiye ties, considering the existing trade and energy relationships between Turkiye and Iran. 

• Trump’s unwavering support for Israel could heighten conflicts with Turkiye, given Erdoğan’s pro-Hamas stance, exacerbating diplomatic friction. 

• Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders. "Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara. 

• If Trump decides to halt military assistance to Ukraine, this could precipitate an end to the conflict, consequently diminishing Turkiye’s leverage in its relationship with Russia. 

• The S-400 issue remains a key point in Turkiye’s relations with the U.S., following its purchase from Russia and exclusion from the F-35 program. While Turkiye’s has focused on developing its own defense capabilities and seeks a refund for the F-35, the F-16 purchase and modernization are still unresolved. Despite some steps taken after Turkiye’s supported Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, it remains uncertain how Trump will handle these defense issues due to his unpredictable stance. 

• Trump’s prior measures, which had adverse impacts on the Turkish economy and publicly humiliated President Erdoğan, serve as a precedent for potential future economic and diplomatic strains. Expert Approaches 

• According to former US Ambassador to Ankara, James Jeffrey, regardless of who comes to power in Washington, the existing framework of relations with Turkiye will remain unchanged. 

• Experts recall that during his first term, former President Donald Trump maintained close relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Sinan Ülgen, Director of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), stated in an interview with BBC Turkish that if Trump returns to power, there would likely be a "more regular and robust dialogue" at the leadership level between the U.S. and Turkiye. 

• Former U.S. Ambassador to Ankara, James Jeffrey, also suggested that under a Trump administration, Washington might pursue closer cooperation with Turkiye: "Trump does not oppose the fundamental collective security strategy the U.S. has implemented since World War II. He understands this strategy and recognizes Turkiye's significance to the U.S. and collective security." 

• However, Jeffrey cautioned about potential challenges in the relationship between the two leaders: "Among all the leaders I know, they are the most likely to undermine their relationship by belittling each other and creating disagreements. Both are very unique individuals." 

• Aslı Aydıntaşbaş noted that despite strong relations at the leadership level during Trump's presidency, Turkiye-U.S. relations experienced "one of their worst periods in history." Aydıntaşbaş stated, “I am confident that in a second Trump term, there would be good dialogue at the level of heads of state. However, this does not guarantee that relations between Turkiye and the U.S. will improve,” and added: “Ankara should not be misled by the positive Erdoğan-Trump relationship during Trump’s term. Trump is a transactional politician, and bilateral engagements with him can be deceptive. The primary objective should be to reestablish relations with the West, but more importantly, to repair the state-tostate relations with the U.S., which have been damaged at an institutional level.” 

• Commenting on the potential effects on the Middle East and Turkiye, Soli Özel said, "If America moves toward a more authoritarian structure, democratic forces worldwide could enter a difficult period." Soli Özel also pointed out that the U.S. might distance itself from its traditional allies during this process. 

• Selim Koru, analyst at TEPAV, believes that Trump's economic policies will impact Turkiye’s economy. Koru states, "Trump promises significant changes to the dominant neoliberal paradigm. While it's impossible to predict exactly what form this will take, structural changes will deeply affect Turkiye’s as well." 

• Gönül Tol emphasizes that although trade relations between Turkiye’s and the United States are "not very strong," a potential new trade war under the Trump administration could still harm Turkiye’s.

Conclusion 

It is essential to consider two critical factors to understand the broader context fully. 

First, numerous significant international developments have reshaped global dynamics since Trump’s initial term. More importantly, it must be noted that Trump—or the White House—does not unilaterally dictate U.S. foreign policy, which is designed to protect and advance long-term American interests globally. Given this reality, anticipating a Trump administration entirely free from the influence of the U.S. establishment would be unrealistic, despite his contentious and seemingly unorthodox approach.

 Thus, any potential positive and concrete changes in U.S.- Turkiye relations under a renewed Trump-Erdoğan rapport would largely depend on how other key actors in Washington view Erdoğan and Turkiye as strategic partners. From the perspective of the geopolitical landscape, the Middle East evolves, particularly with the rise of China and Russia, the U.S. may reassess its strategic priorities in the region. Turkiye’s role in NATO and its position between East and West will remain a key asset, but this could be tested by Trump’s more transactional approach. Ultimately, U.S.-Turkiye’s relations are likely to remain tense, shaped by short-term interests but influenced by larger geopolitical, economical, regional and domestic factors.