POLITICO Macron meets Xi: Two emperors on the edge of two wars Amid arguments over electric cars, cognac and Ukraine, the French president’s dinner with China’s Xi Jinping may not be much fun.

 POLITICO

Macron meets Xi: Two emperors on the edge of two wars 

Amid arguments over electric cars, cognac and Ukraine, the French president’s dinner with China’s Xi Jinping may not be much fun. 

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CHINA-FRANCE-DIPLOMACY

It’s hard to miss the message to Europe in Xi Jinping’s decision to go on from Paris to Serbia later in the week, and then to Hungary. | Pool photo by Jacques Witt via AFP/Getty Images

MAY 5, 2024 3:57 PM CET

BY STUART LAU AND CLEA CAULCUTT

Voiced by Amazon Polly

PARIS — When Xi Jinping sits down for a state banquet with Emmanuel Macron on Monday, the flowing champagne and glittering chandeliers at the Elysée Palace won't be able to outshine one glaring truth: These two emperors are shaping up to fight.

First, Xi — the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong — stands accused by Western governments of helping Vladimir Putin wage war in Ukraine by supplying technology and equipment for the Russian military. 

Second, the European Union and Beijing are on the brink of a full-blown trade war. Macron has been pushing Brussels to get tough with China over flooding the market with cheap electric vehicles. In return, Xi is threatening to slap tariffs on cognac, a painful gesture that’s left the French president and his homegrown liquor industry with a nasty headache. 

Even the usual pomp and ceremony accompanying such a state visit is somewhat toned down this time. Instead of hosting Xi at the Palace of Versailles, with its ornate hall of mirrors, fountains and extensive gardens 12 miles West of Paris, Macron invited him to the Elysée, his city-center residence for a more work-like summit. 

The Chinese are masters in the art of the diplomatic snub. It’s hard to miss the message to Europe in Xi’s decision to go on from Paris to Serbia later in the week, and then to Hungary to meet Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Both central European countries are sympathetic to Moscow and sources of irritation to the West, especially Brussels (which Xi isn't due to visit at all). 

It all feels far gloomier than Macron’s own state visit to China, just over one year ago. Back then, Chinese students shouted “I love you Macron” and the two leaders seemed set on a budding bromance. Macron even publicly distanced himself — in a POLITICO interview — from following America's lead on Taiwan. 

Xi's China, meanwhile, had welcomed Macron's call for European "strategic autonomy", choosing to read it as an expression of anti-U.S. sentiment.

But times have changed. Not only has Macron embraced more openly the need to be assertive in the face of China’s trade threat to European industry, but he’s now a firm convert to Ukraine’s fight against Russia — and one of the EU’s most hawkish voices on Putin’s war. France, it seems, wants to be counted. 

“The Chinese authorities only understand the balance of power,” said Anne Genetet, a member of parliament for Macron’s Renaissance party.

“They are trying to set us against the U.S. and against other EU members … They represent 30 percent of world manufacturing, but that’s no reason to walk all over us.” 

Cars vs cognac

France has in recent months pushed the European Commission into a more aggressive stance against Beijing’s dominance of the green technology of the future, including electric cars. And Xi knows Macron is behind it all. 

After the European Commission launched an anti-subsidy probe against electric vehicles made in China in October, Beijing opted not to target German car-makers which have a massive corporate footprint in China, but instead to line up measures to hit French cognac.

In January, Beijing began an anti-dumping investigation over European producers of liquors. France’s luxury brandy and cognac brands account for 99 percent of all Chinese imports of these liquors.

“The cognac issue is indeed the focus of the greatest attention on the part of the French authorities, first and foremost the president,” an Elysée official told journalists ahead of the visit. “This issue will be addressed during the talks, to ensure that French interests are preserved during and at the end of the procedure launched by the Chinese authorities.”

Some conversations will be even harder. 

Xi has repeatedly called Putin his best friend. He has also repeatedly refused to do anything to stop Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and supplied dual-use military technologies, weapon-building components and satellite imagery, warns the U.S., to Russia. 

In a recent interview with POLITICO, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith highlighted Beijing’s support for Moscow, saying that China could not proclaim to be neutral in the conflict any more. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also described Chinese assistance as “[helping] Moscow to inflict more death and destruction on Ukraine.”

Talking, not talking

In Paris, Macron will provide Xi with his “analysis of developments in the conflict, and [will] convey Ukrainian positions,” the same Elysée official said. The French president “will also raise concerns about the activities of certain Chinese companies that could be directly involved in or contribute significantly to the Russian war effort.”

There’s plenty of room for the two leaders to talk past each other. 

“It’s going to be a mismatch of expectations,” said Abigaël Vasselier, head of foreign relations at MERICS, a think tank, and formerly an EU diplomat working on China policy. “The Chinese are going to France to try to see how they can undermine the European intent to move forward with the [electric vehicles] investigations. [But] for France it is going to come second, after the war in Ukraine.”

During his visit to China last year, Xi invited Macron to his father's home in Guangdong province. This week, Macron will try to turn on the charm, taking Xi to his childhood holiday spot in the Pyrénées. 

According to Juliana Bouchaud, an EU-China expert with corporate advisory firm Rhodium Group, Macron is playing a "dual" game with Beijing.

He’s both lobbying Brussels to wield trade weapons to defend EU industry, and trying to retain a rapport with Xi. “Diplomatically, if you look at the bilateral relation[ship], it is quite cuddly,” Bouchaud said. 

This time, the cuddles might feel more strained.