April 13, 2024

Welcome back to the Turkey Briefing.

It's been another hectic week, and our team, as usual, did a splendid job covering it all.

Thanks for reading!

Turkish state broadcaster cameraman amputated after Israeli 'terror' attack in Gaza

A cameraman for the Turkish state broadcaster’s Arabic language service, TRT Arabi, had his leg amputated after his team’s vehicle was targeted in an Israeli airstrike on the Nuseirat refugee camp in Gaza, the channel said Friday. TRT director general Zahid Sobaci in a post on X called Israel “a murderer” that's exhibited “no moral scruples” over the plight of the cameraman, Sami Shahaadeh. Another TRT correspondent, Sami Berhum, was also injured by Israeli tank fire according to eyewitness accounts.

Fahrettin Altun, director of communications for the Turkish government, tweeted, “This is terror … Israel is targeting journalists so that its massacres won’t be revealed.” According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, at least 95 journalists and media workers were among more than 30,000 Palestinians killed since Oct. 7, when Hamas ignited the war, butchering over 1,200 Israelis in a single day. Around 90 of the journalists killed in the conflict were Palestinians.

Friday’s casualties came amid mounting tensions between Turkey and Israel. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ranks among Israel’s harshest critics over its conduct of the Gaza conflict, likening Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler. However, his critics have blasted him for not matching his words with actions. Turkey finally did so this week, announcing a list of 54 products that it will no longer export to Israel. The list includes cement, steel and iron, which account for the bulk of sales, sparking vows of retaliation from Israel.

You are receiving the complete version of this newsletter for free. To get regular, full access to Al-Monitor's newsletters, subscribe with code TUR25 to get 25% off your first year, which also includes full access to our news, analysis and more.

Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, said his government was working on an “extended list” of other products that it would no longer import from Turkey but has yet to come up with one. Israel imports around 70% of its construction materials and 30% of its cement from Turkey.

As pundits muse over the potential impact of Turkey’s decision, including worries that other countries might follow Ankara’s lead, the main loser will be Turkey, a senior Israeli official speaking not for attribution told me. Turkey sells far more to Israel than Israel sells to Turkey, as laid out in detail by the Times of Israel. Israeli contractors are already likely seeking out alternative sources, and while their wares may be more expensive than the Turkish equivalent, it’s not such a huge deal, not least because Israel’s construction sector, which was already in decline, has shrank sharply since the outbreak of the conflict.

The biggest fallout for Turkey will be reputational, the official said. “This unilateral and effective embargo is in violation of free trade agreements signed between Turkey and Israel. This violation will tarnish Turkey’s name as a partner and further reduce trust in Turkey, which is already close to nonexistent,” the official noted, adding that it could stand in the way of future deals, including a planned underwater gas pipeline, for example.

Turkey’s formal reason for the punitive measures is Israel’s refusal to let it airdrop aid to the Gaza Strip. Israel denied permission because it doesn't "trust Turkey." Might Turkey include weapons destined for Hamas amid nappies and baby formula? Was this the worry? “Yes,” the official responded. (Airdrops are typically not vetted.)

The official added that Israel continued to view the meltdown in relations as more of an “Erdogan problem” than a long-term “Turkey-Israel problem.”

Namik Tan, a member of parliament for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and a former Turkish ambassador to Israel, dismissed Turkey’s trade boycott as “more theater,” saying that the restrictions are in fact full of loopholes. Given Turkey’s current economic woes, the government will likely turn a blind eye to side deals and workarounds, Tan told me. Either way, what prompted Erdogan to go after Israel was largely to do with the results of the March 31 local elections, which saw the CHP overtake his ruling Justice and Development nationally, albeit narrowly, for the first time.

Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a leading voice on US-Turkey relations agreed with the above assessments.

Makovsky said, “First we have to see how, if and when it gets implemented. This decision is primarily motivated by domestic politics. I imagine there will be all sorts of concerns raised about unfulfilled contracts and violations of the Turkish-Israeli Free Trade Agreement, not to mention possible reputational ramifications for Turkey as an international trading partner.”

He continued, “That said, among all the issues on the US-Israeli and US-Turkish agendas, this one won’t rate very highly. It’s a containable bilateral Turkish-Israeli problem, as long as it remains in the realm of economic relations and rhetoric. Obviously, with the region already boiling, the administration would want to avert a further Mavi Marmara-type downward spiral.”

Makovsky was alluding to Israel’s 2010 raid on six civilian ships carrying aid to Gaza. Nine of the flotilla passengers on board the Mavi Marmara were killed, and ten Israeli soldiers were injured in the operation. All but one of those killed — a Turkish American man — were Turkish nationals. The incident sparked a lasting chill in Turkish-Israeli relations that only began to thaw in earnest in 2022, only to plunge back into the abyss with the conflict in Gaza.

Erdogan’s most immediate headache, Tan calls it a “nightmare,” though, is the Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP), the small Islamist party that is a successor to the Refah or Welfare party, where Erdogan began his career. Led by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Erdogan’s political mentor and Turkey’s first Islamist prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, the YRP ate into the AKP’s pious base, wresting two provincial mayoralties and 63 other at the district and subdistrict levels. The YRP’s attacks on Erdogan for “failing” Gaza proved a tipping point for large numbers of AKP supporters fed up with spiraling inflation and declining moral standards, which they saw during the two decades of AKP rule.

The YRP will surely press the government to move harder against Israel, leaving Erdogan in a bind as he seeks to mend fences with the Biden administration, Israel’s staunchest ally. Erdogan is also somewhat of an outlier in the Middle East, where heavy hitters like Saudi Arabia and Egypt do not share his affection for Hamas. A more measured approach could have allowed Turkey to have a seat at the table when the conflict ends.

But Erdogan is seized with his internal problems, most of all the YRP, which has five seats in the parliament, including one warmed by Erbakan. Erbakan may now set his sights on disaffected AKP lawmakers and seek to lure them away.

Other top stories

Nazlan Ertan provides a fascinating account of the murky world of Northern Cypriot real estate, where Israelis and Iranians trade villas and who knows what else.

Barin Kayaoglu takes us on a ride, as it were, on Turkey’s newly unveiled national fighter jet, the Kaan. Ankara seeks to wean itself off Western suppliers and their endless conditions.

Al-Monitor reports on the arrest of a Venezuelan-Lebanese drug lord during a massive cocaine bust in which around 1,340 pounds of “blow” was seized.

On our reading list

Sinem Adar of the Berlin-based Center for Applied Turkey Studies deep dives into the limits of Turkish influence in the Middle East.

Turkish scholars Berk Esen and Sebnem Gumuscu discuss last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections and how Erdogan managed to emerge victorious despite a poor economy and deadly earthquakes.

Euronews reported on the soon-to-be launched Mesopotamia Express that will take passengers across central and Eastern Anatolia and deep into Turkey’s Kurdish heartlands. What fun!