Önder Özar Diplomasi Sevgisi: CNN Fareed's Global Briefing : Is Ukraine in for a Slog? and more ...

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

CNN Fareed's Global Briefing : Is Ukraine in for a Slog? and more ...

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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June 21, 2023

Is Ukraine in for a Slog?

As Ukraine undertakes its much-awaited counteroffensive, The Wall Street Journal’s Daniel Michaels and Isabel Coles write that its forces will likely face a difficult slog.

“Lacking a robust air force, Kyiv’s troops are attempting a feat few modern militaries would dare,” Michaels and Coles write: “dislodge Russian troops that have spent months digging themselves in and readying for Ukraine’s long telegraphed onslaught.” Standing in their way are minefields and trenches; Michaels and Coles cite “early setbacks,” such as when a Ukrainian “unit driving advanced U.S. and European equipment earlier this month drove into one of those minefields, which incapacitated several tanks and armored fighting vehicles. … Ultimately the coming battles will boil down to which side’s preparations prevail, say strategists.”

As for the latest, the Institute for the Study of War, which tracks battlefield developments, on Monday noted modest gains, including Ukraine’s claim to have liberated 113 square kilometers of territory, including eight settlements in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, in the last week. In the east, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has noted a “difficult situation,” The Kyiv Independent reports.

Life in a Leopard

And as for how Ukrainian troops are managing the offensive day to day, at Der Spiegel Alexander Sarovic reports on a Ukrainian unit operating two German Leopard 2 tanks—one of the most highly prized, and widely discussed, pieces of equipment the West has supplied to Kyiv—as they exploit its night-vision capabilities and cope with damage and repairs.

Sarovic writes: “In the late evening, the Leopard crew receives its orders, and at around 10 p.m., the two tanks head out. It would turn out to be a rainy night with eight hours of intensive fighting, as the soldiers describe the next day. The Russians, they say, used phosphorous bombs and, in the morning, combat helicopters. The tank crews fired on Russian positions, infantrymen stormed Russian trenches. The Ukrainians say they made some progress, but remain silent on where or how much ground they gained.”

Can the US and China Calm Their Rivalry?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has completed a trip to Beijing and a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Long delayed by the appearance of a suspected Chinese spy balloon in US skies, Blinken’s visit was intended to stabilize the superpower relationship, and Blinken cited “progress” on that front.

Leading up to Blinken’s trip, observers saw an imbalance—as The Diplomat’s Shannon Tiezzi wrote, Washington appeared to want this trip to happen much more than Beijing did—and high stakes.

In a roundup of expert analyses at ChinaFile, published before Blinken’s meetings, Evan Madeiros suggested that while both countries “are being told by the rest of the world to manage their competition better,” they have seemingly irreconcilable visions for getting there.

“Washington’s strategy has two parts,” Madeiros wrote: “on the one hand, expanding communication, risk management, and, when possible, cooperation and, on the other hand, expanding competitive economic, diplomatic, and military policies. Washington officials say, ‘intense competition requires intense diplomacy.’ China summarily rejects this. For Xi, stability can only come from a reduction in the U.S.’s constant strategic pressure on it and, of course, greater U.S. sensitivity to China’s top priorities like Taiwan.”

In the same roundup, Bonnie Glaser was more optimistic, writing: “Distrust … is at its highest point in more than 70 years. Nevertheless, both countries have an interest in stabilizing ties … The best possible outcome of this visit is that both sides, directed by top leaders to produce mutually beneficial results, agree to hold more exchanges and dialogue in the coming months. … The stakes are high. With the United States nearing election season, the window to stabilize U.S.-China relations is limited and may soon close. … Progress will not be easy and will require enormous political courage from both sides.”

Watch Fareed’s Take

Surprised by Saudi Arabia’s sudden foray into the world of professional golf? Or its having lured world-class soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo to play there? Get ready for more of that, Fareed said on Sunday’s GPS.

The Persian Gulf (and especially Saudi Arabia) is rising, as Fareed pointed out: In general, the region’s economies are booming, and as the world relies on their steady and sanctions-free supply of fossil fuels, the Gulf will be home to globally significant pools of capital—and will be free to go its own way, geopolitically, warming to China and balancing longstanding relationships with the West.

Inflation at a Crossroads?

What to make of the current state of inflation? In the US, the Federal Reserve this month paused its interest-rate hikes after US consumer prices rose just .1% in May, 4% over the year leading up to May, and 5.3% over that year without counting food and energy.

At The New Yorker, John Cassidy points out that things look much better than they did one year ago: “Last June, the inflation rate hit a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, a development that dominated the news for weeks. At the time, the Federal Reserve was sharply raising interest rates to tackle climbing prices, and many economists were predicting a recession for this year.” Politically, US President Joe Biden doesn’t seem to be getting much credit for the improvement, Cassidy writes—possibly because regardless of how fast prices are rising now, they’ve risen, and things are more expensive than when Biden took office.

Others are less optimistic. At The Wall Street Journal, Tom Fairless and Paul Hannon write that around the world, central banks are “in a tricky spot. They need to decide if inflation has stalled way above their 2% target, which could require much higher interest rates to fix, or if inflation’s decline is only delayed. Get the call wrong, and they could push the rich world into a deep recession or force it to endure years of high inflation. … For now, investors appear to doubt the hawkish tone emanating from central banks. … That may be a mistake, according to some economists.”