Operation Regime Change (2)
March 9, 2026
On March 1, the next day of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, President Trump stated that the US military intends to sustain its assault on Iran for “four to five weeks” if necessary, insisting that it “won’t be difficult” to maintain the intensity of the battle, even as he warned of the possibility of further American casualties.
Later, at the Capitol, Senator Rubio told reporters: “It was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone—the United States or Israel or anyone—they were going to respond, and respond against the United States. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.”[i]
Rubio’s comments led to some confusion and prompted Trump to deny that Israel had dragged the US into a war with Iran, insisting instead that the opposite is true and that he felt Iran was going to attack first. A New York Times article titled “How Trump Decided to Go to War” sheds further light on this discussion.[ii]
On March 2, Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine held a press briefing on the war. Hegseth, notably said:
“This operation is a clear, devastating, decisive mission: destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, no nukes… America, regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history… No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don’t waste time or lives.” (emphasis added)
When asked if there were any American boots on the ground in Iran, the Secretary said, “No, but we are not going to go into the exercise of what we will or will not do.”[iii] The same day, Trump said he was not ruling out sending US troops into Iran while simultaneously threatening a new, “big wave” of attacks.
Honestly, when I watch Hegseth, I despair.[iv] Americans should worry about his most negative impact on the US’s global image.
While the Republican Party stands solidly behind Trump on the war, many observers believe the White House has not yet offered a clear endgame for the military campaign. Some argue that while Trump wished to project himself as the world’s peacemaker, he has steadily expanded his use of military force abroad. His messages regarding the war with Iran remain unclear and frequently changing.[v]
Indeed, after returning to office in 2025, Trump approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations, including bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia. He also ordered the US military to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, responded to attacks against US service members in Syria, and targeted Houthi militants in Yemen. In early 2026, after months of military buildup in the Caribbean and US attacks on alleged drug vessels, the US bombed Venezuela and captured the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro.[vi]
The problem for Trump is that the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria remain fresh in the minds of some Americans, fueling concerns about another “long war.” Furthermore, there is no organized opposition within Iran. The speculation that Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Iranian Shah, could return and seize power is a fantasy, as Trump himself has admitted. Mojtaba Khamenei’s election is only a message by the regime that they will continue to fight. The new Supreme Leader will not enjoy the power his father did.
Although Trump and his Secretary of War refuse to discard deploying troops to Iran, with unpredictable leadership, everything is possible. However, Trump’s comments about the US military operations lasting four, five weeks, or more should be taken seriously.
Despite numerous reports of Iranian strikes across the region, the US-Israeli casualties and damage remain limited so far. After all, this is now a regional war. Therefore, the US and Israel will likely continue their air campaign to finally “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile capabilities, administrative, and economic infrastructure. They will try to inflict as much damage as possible to plunge the country into internal chaos until they find a suitable successor to the current leadership. Netanyahu, not Trump, will shape the end of this war. Israel will also enjoy a free hand against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The war in Gaza has amply shown how far Prime Minister Netanyahu can go to achieve his goals.
Bertrand Russell had said once, “People seem good while they are oppressed, but they only wish to become oppressors in their turn: life is nothing but a competition to be the criminal rather than the victim.”
Officials from two Gulf countries said their countries were not given advance notice of the US-Israeli attack and complained that Washington had ignored their warnings that the war would have devastating consequences for the entire region. “This is Netanyahu’s war,” Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief, told CNN on Wednesday. “He somehow convinced the president (Trump) to support his views.”[vii]
In the absence of an organized Iranian opposition and the challenges of deploying land troops in Iran, the US and Israel are now encouraging and arming Kurdish groups to fight the regime. Prime Minister Netanyahu has long seen Kurdish groups as an ally of Israel against regional countries. How this latest development would impact the attitude of regime opponents in Iran to the ongoing war and relations between Ankara and Washington remains to be seen.
In their attack against Iran, the US and Israel are a united front. However, their objectives do not exactly overlap. Netanyahu is after Middle East supremacy and is supported by the majority of Israelis in his endeavor. Trump has no problem with that, yet his priority is China. Venezuela and Iran represented some 17% of China’s overall oil imports. Now, Washington is determined to dominate Venezuela’s oil production and exports. It may have similar plans for Iran under a “friendly” regime in Tehran.
Cuba is not an oil-rich country. However, it is in the Western Hemisphere. Trump said Cuba is soon going to fall, and he is going to put Marco over there. Are we surprised? No.
So far, China has only stated that it is “unacceptable” for the US and Israel to launch attacks against Iran, calling instead for diplomatic engagement.
Russia has condemned the strikes as an act of armed aggression and has also called for diplomatic dialogue. The war is likely to raise Moscow’s oil revenues. The US has already issued a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian oil.
While remaining on the sidelines, both powers hope that the war with Iran would draw the US into another Middle East quagmire.
Many countries of the global south see the US-Israeli war on Iran as a violation of international law.
Washington’s key European allies initially distanced themselves from the US-Israel strikes, stating that their forces did not participate. However, a joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on March 1, 2026, noted that they were appalled by the “indiscriminate and disproportionate” missile attacks launched by Iran against regional countries, including those not involved in the initial US and Israeli operations. They added that they would take steps to defend their interests and those of their allies, potentially through “necessary and proportionate defensive action” to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source.
Last week, France deployed Rafale fighter jets over the UAE to defend its naval and air bases from Iranian attacks. France maintains hundreds of navy, air force, and army personnel in the Gulf state. President Macron, while stating that the US and Israeli military operations in Iran were conducted “outside international law,” also placed the primary blame on the Islamic Republic.
Trump’s constant bashing of Europe appears to have forced the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK to undertake an unpleasant task: ingratiating themselves with Trump.
Spain remains the only notable exception.
Türkiye—having suffered the negative consequences of numerous regional conflicts in the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, and currently facing major economic problems—is worried about an expanding regional conflict. Thus, the AKP leadership is performing a balancing act: expressing disapproval of the US-Israeli attacks while maintaining that Iran’s drone and missile attacks against Gulf countries are unacceptable.
Tehran has said that the Iranian missile shot down on its way to Türkiye was not targeting Türkiye. Since the opposite would make zero sense, this should be the end of the story.
Last week, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, called President Erdoğan. Following their conversation, she stated, “We agree that diplomacy is the only viable solution to make progress. I am grateful to President Erdogan for preparing for the potential impact of this crisis on migration. We are already closely cooperating on the Syrian issue.”
In short, the EU’s concern about an increase in migration from Iran prompted the call.
A final word:
Last week, “I condemn the Iranian theocratic regime for its dictatorial and repressive nature, but these ongoing attacks are a violation of international law,” said Heraldo Muñoz, a former foreign minister of Chile.
I could not agree more.
As I also said in my last post,
“Since the 1979 revolution, the people of Iran have lived under oppressive Islamist tyranny. The country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, remained in power for 37 years. The regime miserably failed to deliver peace, stability, and higher living standards to Iranians. Even the most cautious attempts for reform by a few led nowhere. The regime’s reaction to political protests was massacres. Its regional ambitions overstepped the bounds of reason. On the international scene, it had few friends, if any. Consequently, Iran became a vulnerable state.”
However, what we are witnessing is aggression.
The people of Iran are eager for change. However, the US and Israel must exercise utmost caution not to alienate regime opponents through continuing attacks, death, and destruction, which would leave them with no choice but to side with the regime.
[i] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/02/rubio-us-attack-israel-iran?CMP=share_btn_url
[ii] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/us/politics/trump-war-iran-israel.html?smid=em-share
[iii] https://www.war.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/4418959/secretary-of-war-pete-hegseth-and-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff-gen-dan/
[iv] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/08/pete-hegseth-pentagon-trump-iran
[v] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/us/politics/iran-war-first-week.html
[vi] https://www.cfr.org/articles/guide-trumps-second-term-military-strikes-and-actions
[vii] https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-trump-gulf-states-drones-defense-69d5bc227e468f06e20e5ad069330c7d?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=2026-03-06-Exclusive
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