Erdogan's upcoming trip, which will mark the president's first visit to the United States since his reelection, comes at a time when Ankara-Washington ties seem to be in a deadlock. Ankara is “seriously upset” because its bid to purchase new F-16 fighter jets from the United States is still pending. The White House, in turn, is frustrated by Turkey’s postponement of the Swedish ratification. Both sides appear unwilling to move before seeing the other side take action. “It’s a chicken and an egg situation,” as a NATO source told Amberin Zaman. As she reported, Erdogan added a fresh layer of uncertainty around Sweden’s NATO membership bid when he said it was for the Turkish parliament to decide whether or not to ratify Stockholm’s application. Later this week, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey was committed to the understandings that Turkey and Sweden agreed upon on the sidelines of the NATO summits in Madrid last year and in Vilnius in July, as I reported here. “The road maps drafted there, the expectations from the parties, and the obligations are clear,” Fidan said. “The process is progressing within this framework.” Yet the Turkish and Swedish interpretations of these “understandings” reached on the sidelines of the NATO summits differ widely, and therein lies the strain. Ankara argues that Sweden, which already amended its constitution and counterterrorism law to address Turkey’s demands, should also extradite or deport dozens of individuals over their alleged ties to terrorism. Stockholm, in turn, maintains that it has already fulfilled its part of the deal and the rest lies on Turkey’s shoulders. Meanwhile, as October nears, Turkey’s room for maneuver is shrinking and neither analysts nor the political establishment believe that Erdogan will walk back from his initial promise to conclude the ratification process in October. “Erdogan might be zigzagging a lot, but he is a very pragmatic leader. He wouldn’t want to undermine Turkey's standing in NATO any further,” Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey Program of the Middle East Institute in Washington, told me today. Still, it didn't help when the Biden administration sanctioned five more Turkey-based companies for allegedly assisting Russia in evading US sanctions and aiding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, only days before Erdogan’s visit. We have the story here. (Söz konusu beş şirket şunlar : Margiana İnşaat Dış Ticaret Limited Şirketi, CTL Dış Ticaret Limited Şirketi, Demirci Bilişim Ticaret Sanayi Limited Şirketi, Denkar Gemi İnşa Şirketi, ID Ship Agency ve sahibi İlker Doğruyol, ABD ambargosuna alındı. Önder Özar'ın notu) Meanwhile, although a major improvement in US-Turkey ties is unlikely, Turkey’s regional fence-mending push will likely see further strides during Erdogan’s New York visit. The Turkish president is scheduled to meet with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UNGA summit. The meetings come as part of a reset in Turkey’s ties with former regional rivals. Erdogan is also set to meet with American billionaire Elon Musk, according to Turkish media outlets close to the Turkish presidency. Alas, the duo is not expected to argue about the recent changes that the businessman introduced on Twitter — like changing the platform’s name to X — but rather discuss joint investment opportunities. | 
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