AL-MONITOR Turkey Briefing - Ezgi Akın - September 15, 2023 -- New F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. still pending, Sweden's NATO membership, Turkey- based companies sanctioned and more

 

	September 15, 2023
Turkey Briefing

Welcome back to Turkey Briefing! “Will Turkey ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO?” has been the question of the week as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to travel to the United States to attend the United Nations General Assembly. The annual diplomatic spectacle is eagerly awaited by the global community — except perhaps New Yorkers, whose lives become a nightmare due to the traffic jams.  Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend! Ezgi @ezgi_akin Talk of the town Erdogan's upcoming trip, which will mark the president's first visit to the United States since his reelection, comes at a time when Ankara-Washington ties seem to be in a deadlock. Ankara is “seriously upset” because its bid to purchase new F-16 fighter jets from the United States is still pending. The White House, in turn, is frustrated by Turkey’s postponement of the Swedish ratification.  Both sides appear unwilling to move before seeing the other side take action. “It’s a chicken and an egg situation,” as a NATO source told Amberin Zaman. As she reported, Erdogan added a fresh layer of uncertainty around Sweden’s NATO membership bid when he said it was for the Turkish parliament to decide whether or not to ratify Stockholm’s application.  Later this week, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey was committed to the understandings that Turkey and Sweden agreed upon on the sidelines of the NATO summits in Madrid last year and in Vilnius in July, as I reported here. “The road maps drafted there, the expectations from the parties, and the obligations are clear,” Fidan said. “The process is progressing within this framework.” Yet the Turkish and Swedish interpretations of these “understandings” reached on the sidelines of the NATO summits differ widely, and therein lies the strain.  Ankara argues that Sweden, which already amended its constitution and counterterrorism law to address Turkey’s demands, should also extradite or deport dozens of individuals over their alleged ties to terrorism.  Stockholm, in turn, maintains that it has already fulfilled its part of the deal and the rest lies on Turkey’s shoulders.   Meanwhile, as October nears, Turkey’s room for maneuver is shrinking and neither analysts nor the political establishment believe that Erdogan will walk back from his initial promise to conclude the ratification process in October.  “Erdogan might be zigzagging a lot, but he is a very pragmatic leader. He wouldn’t want to undermine Turkey's standing in NATO any further,” Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey Program of the Middle East Institute in Washington, told me today. Still, it didn't help when the Biden administration sanctioned five more Turkey-based companies for allegedly assisting Russia in evading US sanctions and aiding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, only days before Erdogan’s visit. We have the story here. (Söz konusu beş şirket şunlar : Margiana İnşaat Dış Ticaret Limited Şirketi, CTL Dış Ticaret Limited Şirketi, Demirci Bilişim Ticaret Sanayi Limited Şirketi, Denkar Gemi İnşa Şirketi, ID Ship Agency ve sahibi İlker Doğruyol, ABD ambargosuna alındı. Önder Özar'ın notu)  Meanwhile, although a major improvement in US-Turkey ties is unlikely, Turkey’s regional fence-mending push will likely see further strides during Erdogan’s New York visit. The Turkish president is scheduled to meet with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UNGA summit. The meetings come as part of a reset in Turkey’s ties with former regional rivals.  Erdogan is also set to meet with American billionaire Elon Musk, according to Turkish media outlets close to the Turkish presidency. Alas, the duo is not expected to argue about the recent changes that the businessman introduced on Twitter — like changing the platform’s name to X — but rather discuss joint investment opportunities.  Middle East’s AI ambitions caught between US-China chip war The Middle East is becoming a key theater of operations in the US-China tech war — with semiconductor chips squarely in the crosshairs. The latest salvo came in August, when news surfaced that the United States had expanded export restrictions on Nvidia’s coveted AI chips to include some Middle East countries alongside China, potentially dealing a blow to the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s AI ambitions. This adds heft to Washington’s warning that it will “protect” its advanced technology as Gulf states grow cooperation with China. Beijing is dealing blows too: in August, China crushed US tech giant Intel’s $5.4 billion acquisition of Israeli chipmaker Tower Semiconductor. Looking ahead, the US-China chip war should continue bleeding into the Middle East, making this a moment of uncertainty and opportunity for regional power players with much to gain and lose as AI booms. Read more. Other top stories  • Fehim Tastekin unpacks the latest on the deadly protests in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk ahead of provincial council elections in the province scheduled for Dec. 18. • Sudan’s military chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, visited Ankara this week as part of his efforts to garner regional support against the Rapid Security Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group which is challenging his power. Turkey is the fifth country Burhan has visited since April when the bloody clashes broke out.  • As tensions between Turkish Cypriots and UN peacekeepers on the ethnically divided island are running high, the UN’s Cyprus mission is looking to diffuse those tensions by trying to strike a deal with the Turkish side over a disputed road project. I have that story here. Recommended reads and listens ➤ A must-listen for espionage and history lovers by one of our favorite Turkey podcasts, Turkey Book Talk. Pat Yale recounts her new book: “Following Miss Bell: Travels Around Turkey in the Footsteps of Gertrude Bell.” ➤ And here’s a good weekend read by the AFP on how Turkey's winning women are reigniting the country’s culture war.

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