The 6 February earthquake is a massive tragedy for Turkey and Syria, and the world needs to do much more to alleviate the suffering of millions of people. This Brief, however, will look into the seism’s consequences for the future of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Erdoğan’s political career took off partly due to his ability to exploit the 1999 earthquake, which was of a similar magnitude to the recent one, by exposing corruption and bad governance behind poor construction standards that left more than 17,000 dead in the region of Istanbul. The then government of Bülent Ecevit was slow in responding to the disaster. Coupled with the 2001 financial crash, this helped Erdoğan’s AKP party to win the 2002 general elections with an overwhelming majority, securing two-thirds of the seats in parliament. Ever since, Erdoğan has been consolidating his power, including through constitutional changes and by banning political parties and jailing political opponents ahead of the 16 May general elections. But 24 years later, an even bigger earthquake, 7.8 on the Richter scale, struck the southern part of the country, with a death toll of 41,000 and counting. The tables have turned, and the opposition is now questioning Erdoğan on his responsibility for the collapse of thousands of newly-constructed buildings, which should be able to resist a quake of this magnitude. The poor handling of the ensuing humanitarian crisis by the authorities also makes many furious. Critics such as opposition CHP party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu argue that after 20 years in power, Erdoğan’s government has not “prepared the country for the earthquakes”. Even more damaging than the magnitude of last week’s quake was the “lack of coordination, lack of planning and incompetence”, Kılıçdaroğlu said. One big question they raise is what happened to the large sums collected through two “earthquake solidarity taxes” created after the 1999 quake. The funds were meant to make buildings resistant to earthquakes. The government has never fully explained how the sums collected, reportedly equivalent to €4.3 billion, have been spent. Critics have complained that construction standards have not been observed in earthquake zones and highlight a 2018 government amnesty that meant violations of the building code could be swept away with a fine, leaving millions of buildings with unclear status regarding their capacity to resist an earthquake. |
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