A new RAND report out this week grapples with a fundamental question that will shape the world in the coming decades: What are the scope and nature of the U.S.-China competition?
China is indeed a formidable U.S. competitor, but it is not poised to dominate world politics. “The competition is clearly something other than a classic power transition,” the authors write. “China is rising relative to the United States but not in a straight-line trajectory.”
The report identifies seven areas of power and influence that provide a useful framework for understanding the competition. Science and technology and domestic economics stand out as the two most critical areas. The authors also note that this is a contest to prove which country’s system best provides for its own people during a time of turbulence and instability.
They also warn that, despite limits to China’s rise, Beijing is approaching this contest through a comprehensive campaign, within and across many elements of national power. Meanwhile, the United States has yet to fully embrace the scope of the contest or invest sufficiently in critical tools of statecraft.
This has many implications for U.S. strategy. For example, the contest for influence in global digital, AI, and energy networks must be an important focus of strategic investments. Washington should also seek to strengthen its existing global power alignments, which remain a huge advantage. And focusing more on homeland resilience issues could put the United States on better footing, whether in peacetime or war.
In its competition with China, the United States must preserve its vital interests without blowing up the relationship. The most plausible end state, the authors write, “is to create the conditions that encourage and require China to constrain its ambitions and aggressiveness—to become not a friend or ally but a great power more capable of controlled coexistence.”
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