European Council
Think Tank reports on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine
Ukrainian flag imposed of a construction site.
©Getty images
15.05.2024
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: the evolution of grand strategy
The author observes that while Ukraine’s strategic objectives have remained the same throughout the war, the ways and means to achieve them have shifted. Surprise and ability to mass troops have become less relevant, but technology must be mobilised through society-wide efforts if Ukraine is to prevail. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s longer-term security requires the construction of a credible deterrence posture.
Friends of Europe
Ukraine gets the help it needs, but is it too little too late?
Commenting on the US package for Ukraine, the author notes that it does not mean that Kyiv will receive $61bn in new weapons deliveries. A total of $26bn will be used to restock Pentagon arsenals and to replace US weapons and ammunition previously transferred to Ukraine. A further $9bn is in the form of loans although future US administrations can waive reimbursement. Just under $14bn will be spent on immediate weapons deliveries. What is critical is that the Pentagon now moves fast to send the weapons that Ukraine most urgently needs, given the pressures that the Ukrainian army is under from Russian advances in the Donbas and from daily Russian missile and drone strikes against cities like Kharkiv and Ukraine’s power stations and energy grid.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Evolución legal de la figura del mercenario en el conflicto de Ucrania, ¿respeto o soslayo al DIH?
According to the author, employing mercenaries is crucial in many conflicts, but winning the information war (cognitive domain) requires legitimacy in order to uphold the principles of international humanitarian law. To that end, the parties to the dispute modify their legal framework to fit the various circumstances.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Más allá de las armas: la estrategia rusa en Ucrania
This article provides a detailed analysis of the Russian strategy, examining Russian foreign policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It explores the various tools and tactics employed by Russia in Ukraine, including military, economic, diplomatic, and popular support, as well as the threat of nuclear coercion. Finally, it assesses the effectiveness of the Russian strategy and its implications for the future of Ukraine and the West.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Demographics: Ukraine's major Achilles heel
Before the war, because of its low birth rate and high emigration, Ukraine was the country with the worst ageing prospects in the world. The armed conflict, which has degenerated into a war of attrition, has further worsened its demographic future. According to the author, even if Ukraine wins the war, it could lose the peace. In the event of defeat, not only will the sacrifice have been futile, but it could mean the ultimate ruin of the nation.
Atlantic Council
Bombs and disinformation: Russia’s campaign to depopulate Kharkiv
Russia failed to take Kharkiv in the early weeks of the invasion more than two years ago. As the city braces for the possibility of a new Russian offensive in the coming summer months, local residents are equally determined to defy the Kremlin once again. In order to do so, the author explains that they must withstand unprecedented aerial bombardment, while also guarding against the demoralizing impact of relentless Russian disinformation.
Council on Foreign Relations
What happened to ‘stalemate’ in Ukraine?
While the word stalemate provided a handy summary of the war as Ukraine’s counteroffensive petered out in the second half of 2023 - with both sides unable to make more than small gains - the term has now become obsolete. This brief argues that, in 2024, the most important questions the two sides face are about a possible break in the stalemate. Russia and Ukraine could soon be looking at a transformed conflict - one in which both have real reasons for hope as well as fear.
Council on Foreign Relations
Weapons of war: the race between Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine and its Western backers are still struggling, in the third year of the war, to keep up with Russia’s advantages in troop and weapon numbers. The author argues that Ukraine would have a much better chance to prevail if the US and its European allies did more to ramp up defence production to keep pace with Russia’s wartime output - and if they donated more of their defence equipment to Ukraine, including the long-range strike weapons that Ukraine needs to target Russian bases in Russia-occupied Crimea.
Centre for European Reform
Does it matter if Ukraine loses?
This policy brief looks at Ukraine’s military and political situation and how to define defeat. It analyses the catastrophic consequences for the West and especially for Europe if Russia were to achieve a decisive victory. It assesses the real balance of power between Russia and the West as well as the balance of risk between action and inaction, while outlining the steps necessary to ensure that Ukraine both survives in the short term and drives Russia out of all occupied territory in the long term.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
Russian economy: still standing, but stuck
This report analyses the nuanced effects of Western sanctions against Russia two years since the beginning of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and, in contrast to the widespread international optimistic assessment of “Russia’s economic resilience” to sanctions, paint a very different picture: behind the facade of a handful of positive macroeconomic indicators like strong GDP growth and low unemployment, Russia’s actual economic reality is much bleaker, and the situation is getting worse.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
A smart specialization strategy for Ukraine
The author argues that Ukraine needs to improve its international competitiveness. Although the Ukrainian government has made tremendous strides in improving the rule of law, protecting intellectual property rights, strengthening of legal frameworks, etc. there remains much work to be done.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Resilience, reconstruction, recovery: the path ahead for Ukraine
Seen from a multi-domain perspective the brief focuses on four tasks of reconstruction and recovery: maximizing wartime resilience in the face of continued Russian aggression; investing in the economy and infrastructure of Ukraine’s future, rather than its past; preparing Ukraine for rapid and mutually beneficial integration into the EU; and hardening Ukraine’s state, economy, and infrastructure, and deterring future Russian attacks.
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Ukraine’s reconstruction: policy options for building an effective financial architecture
This report addresses a major precondition for the country’s reconstruction and development, i.e. a healthy and widely trusted financial system. It starts from the status quo of Ukraine’s banking and capital market and suggests policy options for improving effectiveness and increasing international trust in the system.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Made in Ukraine: how the EU can support Ukrainian defence production
The publication notes that Ukraine urgently needs investment in local production capacities and repair and maintenance facilities. The EU and Ukraine have a shared strategic interest in supporting the reform and development of Ukraine’s rapidly expanding defence industry.
Vox Ukraine
Gender inequality in the “black mirror”: how to overcome violence in the digital dimension?
The paper addresses the digital dimension of violence, reviews the latest data globally and in the EU, and how this problem is being addressed in Europe and more specifically in Ukraine. However, it seems impossible to conduct an objective and comprehensive analysis of the problem of violence (including gender-based violence) in the digital dimension in Ukraine. So, the paper makes some on what Ukraine needs to do.
Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (Polish Institute of International Affairs)
Regional cooperation in Central Europe after Russia's aggression against Ukraine
This report explores the attempts to redefine regional political cooperation in many Central European states. While signaling the prospects for common actions, the report also aims to contribute to the debate on the directions of the future development of this cooperation.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Russian ongoing military aggression against Ukraine and EU security policy in 2024
The EU’s European Peace Facility (EPF) has incentivized its member states to give military equipment to Ukraine by reimbursing them for some of the costs. However, there is now little left to give as most of the old equipment has been divested. As such, European military support to Kyiv is lagging. The problem, as the brief argues, is that there is a tension between rebuilding European militaries and supporting Ukraine. A new paradigm is urgently needed for Europe’s military support for Ukraine.
Carnegie Europe
The war in Ukraine will either forge or splinter Europe
According to the brief, political shifts in Europe and the US risk deepening divisions within the EU. Leaders should make clear that investing in Ukraine’s defence is essential for securing Europe’s shared future.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Freedom isn’t free | Een kosten-baten analyse van de steun aan Oekraïne
This note contributes to the debate on Dutch support. It explains the impact of European and American support to three outcomes of the war in Ukraine: a Ukrainian victory in the long term, a protracted conflict or a Russian victory.
Institut Montaigne
Guerre en Ukraine : le prix de la liberté, un enjeu franco-allemand
The paper argues that the war in Ukraine divides the French and German partners who, in their support for Kyiv, are developing distinct strategies. However, only a community and even pan-European plan, supported by Paris and Berlin, would be able to provide the financial and material means without which Europe will fail to pay the "price of freedom". It further asks how France and Germany can make the European Council meeting in June a crucial moment to respond to the challenges of the war.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
The U.S. industrial defense strategy after Ukraine
This note delves into the measures adopted or put forward by the Pentagon to strengthen the national defense industry in the context of the war in Ukraine. It aims at providing an overview of some of the major trends and dynamics in the US defense industrial policy since February 2022.
Council on Foreign Relations
How much U.S. aid is going to Ukraine?
Since the war began, the U.S. Congress has voted through five bills that have provided Ukraine with ongoing aid, doing so most recently in April 2024. The total budget authority under these bills — the “headline” figure often cited by news media — is $175 billion. The authors present nine charts that illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
Institut français des relations internationales
The future of nuclear proliferation after the war in Ukraine
This paper argues that the risk of proliferation in the coming decade is real but less acute and more manageable than many analysts have suggested. To limit the risk, the great powers and the international community need to step in to manage proliferation triggers by maintaining a focus on non-proliferation in their statecraft.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Defence diplomacy: Ukraine and the Global South
Based on previous experience, strategic communications – including defence diplomacy – are usually built on the principle of the “Five Ms”: messages, messengers, media, mediums and mechanisms. The messages should be tailored carefully to the audience, addressing political narratives, shared historical experiences, socio-psychological aspects, instrumental issues and cultural affairs. For that reason, the paper suggests that Ukraine should come out strong in the messaging and the other pillars of this strategy when trying to cooperate with the “Global South” and procure military support.
Atlantic Council
Grassroots diplomacy can help unlock international support for Ukraine
The author argues that, amid growing uncertainty over the future of international aid for Ukraine, diplomatic initiatives at the local and regional levels can play a critical role in securing continued public support around the world for Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression. These grassroots efforts, also known as subnational diplomacy, can go far beyond merely symbolic support, and have the potential to strengthen economic, cultural, and political ties between Ukraine and the country’s international partners.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
The rise of a new generation of Russian oligarchs as an unexpected consequence of the ongoing war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has caused an unprecedented change in Russia’s relations with the West. In reaction to Russian aggression, the US, the EU, and other Western countries have adopted rapid and massive sanctions against Russia with the aim to change its course of action and to reestablish international Law. However, not only is the Russian economy proving strongly resilient to sanctions, but because of these sanctioning measures, a new class of Russian businessmen and managers, who owe their fortune to the circumstances created by the war, has begun to emerge, as this analysis demonstrates.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre russo-ukrainienne : la région de la Mer Noire au cœur de la reconfiguration des flux énergétiques
This study seeks to trace the complexity and tangle of energy flows that have been reconfigured since the start of the war in Ukraine. The Black Sea region, which is located at the heart of the physical interdependencies of the European-Russian networks, is experiencing a shift in the epicentre of transit from the territories located to the north of the Black Sea towards Turkey, in the south, notably via the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The economic war, with the packages of sanctions put in place on both sides, in which Russia and the EU are engaged has in fact generated a reconfiguration of energy flows but has not, however, succeeded in lastingly weakening the Russian economy, nor its military position in the war in Ukraine.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La aceptación China de la guerra en Ucrania y el objetivo de un nuevo orden mundial
In the author’s opinion, China's behaviour in relation to the war in Ukraine may not be meeting the expectations of some political leaders and analysts. However, it seems consistent with the overall external projection of Xi Jinping's China. The commentary explains why.
Fundación Alternativas
Desinformación y censura en conflictos internacionales. Los casos de Ucrania y Gaza
The aim of this document is threefold: firstly, to take critical stock of the legislative responses to disinformation at the European level; secondly, to review the most relevant aspects of the two conflicts – Ukraine and Gaza; thirdly, to reflect and put forward proposals for better combating disinformation, propaganda, and censorship as far as possible.
Ukrainian flag with drones.
19.04.2024
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Ukraine strategic futures
The policy paper examines three strategic futures for Ukraine and the European security:
NATO membership, which is by far the most reliable and least risky outcome for both Ukraine and the West, and alternative options – the “fortress Ukraine” and “Ukraine with assurances”.
Council on Foreign Relations
What it takes to fly the F-16: challenges for Ukraine
Ukraine is set to receive US -made F-16 fighter aircraft within months, an upgrade that Kyiv and its Western allies hope will help level the playing field with Russia’s formidable air force. But, as this brief explains, the F-16s will only have a meaningful impact on the war in Ukraine if Kyiv and its partners can build and maintain the extensive support and logistics infrastructure necessary to keep these world-class warplanes in the air.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre en Ukraine: questions de crédibilité
No clearing in sight on the Ukrainian front. The article speaks of a relative status quo after the Russian failure to reach Kiev and the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to reconquer the Donbass, to which are added concerns about Washington's long-term commitment, the absence of an alternative to Vladimir Putin to hope for in Moscow, and Europeans who nevertheless remain fairly united among themselves and in solidarity with Kyiv.
Friends of Europe
Revenge, implosion or reform - three scenarios for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine
The consolidation of power within the Kremlin, with or without Vladimir Putin, albeit undesirable, is the most likely scenario for Russia after a defeat in Ukraine. This is the conclusion of a recent report by Friends of Europe outlining three scenarios of what will happen to Russia after Ukraine’s victory.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The unchanging core: Russian military culture examined through the Ukrainian war
The time has arrived to delve into the depths of Russia’s reform and modernization endeavours. This unfolding narrative aims to unveil the essence of ‘Ivan’s war’ on Ukrainian soil. This inquiry poses compelling questions: can we truly decipher the unique contours of their military culture and, consequently, discern a distinct Russian way of war?
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Russia’s nuclear-capable missiles: a question of escalation control
Aspects of Moscow’s military strategy in Ukraine, including its deployment of dual-use missile systems, have offered some potential insights into its nuclear-weapons doctrine. According to the author, the examination of Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal – provides potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine, while also raising questions about Moscow’s ability to control escalation.
Observer Research Foundation
Ukraine's task for the year 2024: to maintain support and break the course of the war
The paper argues that Ukraine must convince its allies to continue military, financial and other support regardless of a change in power in their governments. Ukraine ended the second year of the war, facing a number of challenges that make the future unclear. Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and the uncertainty around Western support for Kyiv has given President Vladimir Putin a confidence boost.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La prevalencia de la guerra defensiva, su estancamiento y su carácter limitado
As the author of this paper claims, the war in Ukraine has brought into play the development of new military technology. However, the Ukrainian battlefield looks more like a picture of World War I, with soldiers on foot sheltering in muddy trenches from intense shelling from classic artillery. The questions now are whether we are once again facing a prevalence of the defensive over the offensive; and what factors of the operational environment can shape this new form and manner of fighting.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant taken as military target: legal and technical global challenges
The writer discusses how for the first time in history a nuclear power plant (NPP) has become a military objective in the front line of a war. While previous military operations at the Iraqi Osirak reactor (1981), the Iranian Bushehr NPP (1987) and the Slovenian Krško NPP (1991) were somewhat ad hoc, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant continues to be disputed as a military target in the frontline of the war in Ukraine, a new and unprecedented situation for which the international community was unprepared.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Dirty warfare? The application of international law to attacks on nuclear power plants in the conduct of hostilities
Alongside verbal threats of using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia’s invasion plans have included attacks on nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia complex in Ukraine. These actions raise critical questions about the application of international law to military operations involving NPPs and liability for resulting nuclear damage. This paper examines the scope of international law in such scenarios and concludes with implications from the perspective of strategic studies and NATO nuclear policy.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Behind the lines: Ukraine warns Russia’s neighbours to prepare for resistance
The article elaborates on the Ukrainian people’s resistance to Russia, arguing that it was planned long before tanks crossed the border. It warns other Europeans to be ready to repel Moscow’s aggression.
Center for European Policy Analysis
Resilience, reconstruction, recovery: the path ahead for Ukraine
To the question "How can the world achieve sustainable Ukrainian resilience, reconstruction, and recovery in the face of conflict?", the report analyses four key pillars of recovery and reconstruction: economics and finance, Ukrainian reform, Western political will, and the postwar security architecture. Each of these pillars is vital to the stability of the edifice as a whole, and each must be addressed in parallel.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s War in Ukraine: mobilisation in wartime
In the first brief of the series, the author examines Ukraine’s need to mobilise, prepare and train half a million men to relieve those who have fought since the start of the full-scale war. This will not only challenge the military but will also have profound economic effects.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Putin’s henchmen: the Russian National Guard in the invasion of Ukraine
This paper aims to highlight the role that the National Guard has played in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the war’s impact on the service. Willing to be a key instrument to advance Putin’s priority objectives, most notably internal stability and the war against Ukraine, the National Guard has at least momentarily strengthened its standing within Russia. In this sense, the case of the National Guard is illustrative of the general dynamics characterising Russian security agencies, constantly engaged in a struggle for resources, influence, or even mere survival.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
EU support for Ukraine: the paradox of insufficient assistance
Although the EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance, the West is failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. According to the author, despite the EU’s declaration to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, the current extent of military support is an indication that the Union is not in practice committed to Ukraine’s victory.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Return and reconstruction: how the EU should invest in Ukrainian refugees
While preparing for a longer war, Ukraine and its allies are already planning for reconstruction. Human capital will be the linchpin of this effort. The author argues that, already before the war, Ukraine was lacking people in its administration and crucial sectors, and that European countries should more strategically address the prospective return of Ukrainians who fled, by enhancing their potential to help reconstruction.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Can farmland market liberalization help Ukraine in its reconstruction and recovery?
The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine has inflicted massive damages and losses on Ukraine, already amounting to more than 2.5 times Ukraine’s 2023 GDP. Despite substantial and continuing international political and financial support to help Ukraine in its recovery and reconstruction, it is becoming increasingly clear that it will need to mobilize its own resources and private financing as well. This policy brief argues that farmland market liberalization is one of the key reforms in this respect.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, lessons learnt can strengthen EU sanctions policy
The article analyses the impact of the EU sanctions on Russia’s economy, the fight against their circumvention as well as Russia’s disinformation activities on sanctions. It offers recommendations how to further reduce Russia’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine.
European Policy Center
Cost of aggression: EU sanctions against Russia two years on
Russia’s escalation at the frontline, along with the death of Alexey Navalny, should compel the West to be more active in supporting Ukraine and further increasing pressure on the aggressor, including via sanctions policy. According to the brief, strengthening sanctions enforcement and preventing circumvention must remain the priority in 2024.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Why Russia has been so resilient to Western export controls
The article presents the reasons why Russia has proved exceptionally resilient to the technology export controls imposed by the West and was able to maintain its military capability despite these measures.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Sanctions on Russia: getting the facts right
The important strategic role that sanctions play in the efforts to constrain Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and end its brutal war on Ukraine is often questioned and diminished in the public debate. This policy brief shares insights on the complexities surrounding the use of sanctions against Russia, in light of its illegal aggression towards Ukraine. The aim is to facilitate a public discussion based on facts and reduce the risk that the debate falls prey to the information war.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
The impact and limits of sanctions on Russia's telecoms industry
This article covers the impact of telecommunications sanctions on Russia. The author argues that such sanctions are inefficient and, not only because the industry does not suffer enough from them to affect the Russian economy, but also due to side effects in the form of state propaganda gaining a stronger grip. The analysis concludes that the EU should focus less on weakening Russia’s civilian tech infrastructure and more on strengthening resistance to the Kremlin’s information hegemony on the Runet.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Energising Eastern Europe: how the EU can enhance energy sovereignty through cooperation with Ukraine and Moldova
The brief analyses the progress that the EU and its eastern neighbours have made towards strengthening each other’s energy sovereignty so far and sets out the next steps that they should take. It finds that, to date, the EU and its member states have played an important role in strengthening the energy sovereignty of its eastern neighbours by increasing their energy independence, but that Ukraine and Moldova still underperform when it comes to cleanness and efficiency.
Vox Ukraine
What may an ethical investor do with profits from fossil fuels due to the war on Ukraine?
The article argues that oil companies have clearly benefited from the rise in oil prices caused by Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Some of them recognized this and donated part of their profits to Ukrainians immediately in 2022. Investors in fossil fuel companies benefited as well, among them universities’ endowments.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ships, trains, and trucks: unlocking Ukraine’s vital trade potential
Due to constant and indiscriminate Russian missile attacks, Ukraine suffered massive destruction of its transport and logistics infrastructure, with air cargo totally suspended and port activity severely interrupted. This paper analyses how Ukraine has been adapting its trade routes and related infrastructure in wartime and provides recommendations to sustain trade and economic activity now and in the future.
Bruegel
Emerging countries have replaced most of Russia’s lost trade with advanced economies
Russian trade overall seems to have suffered little from sanctions; meanwhile, medicine and food trade continues with sanctioning countries. Russia’s trading relationships have changed hugely since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Most advanced countries now restrict exports to and imports from Russia, while several companies headquartered in advanced countries reduced their activities in, and trade with, Russia. However, many emerging countries, most notably China, have deepened their economic ties with Russia. The report elaborates on the question of the net impact of these diverging trends.
Atlantic Council
Putin is on an historic mission and will not stop until he is finally defeated
Ultimately, it is impossible to predict exactly what Putin will do if he wins in Ukraine. As the brief notes, he may initially choose to pursue low-hanging geopolitical fruit by seizing small neighbourhood countries like Moldova or Georgia. Alternatively, he might seek to press home his advantage against a weakened West by embarking on far bolder military gambits targeting the Baltic states or the Suwałki Gap. Of the many possible post-Ukraine scenarios for Russia, the author argues that the least likely of all is the idea that an emboldened and victorious Putin would simply stop.
Council on Foreign Relations
Campaign roundup: Joe Biden makes the case for Ukraine aid
Supporters of US military aid for Ukraine have been urging President Joe Biden for weeks to make the case to the American public. The author analyses the State of the Union speech in which Biden pressed Congress to pass the much-delayed Ukrainian aid bill.
Brookings Institution
NATO cannot take Russia’s weakness in the Baltic theater for granted
The end of Sweden’s drawn-out accession to NATO signifies the completion of the Baltic region’s political transformation and strategic reconfiguration. Both processes were accelerated by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has recently crossed the two-year mark, and in both transitions, Russia loses. The author argues that the question of the real military threat that Russia poses to its neighbours, and its potential timeline, deserves more scrutiny.
RAND Europe
Help Ukraine win—or risk kicking off a U.S. losing streak
More than two years into Russia's war in Ukraine, the once solid wall of U.S. public support for aid to Ukraine has become less vocal, the brief notes. Because of this decrease in discourse supporting Ukraine, a small number of loud detractors is seeking to sway public opinion by asserting that supporting Ukraine isn't in the United States' interest.
Ukranian flag illustration featuring a father and son with big red hearts amongst flowers.
20.03.2024
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Russia's armed forces two years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Despite the losses suffered in Ukraine, Russia has consistently pursued plans to increase the capacity of its armed forces. The article examines the “Shoigu reform” of Russia’s military, the challenges for its defence industry as well as the ideological factors in the militarisation of the state.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
La guerra en Ucrania tras dos años: ¿cómo ayudar a Ucrania para que no la pierda?
The author is of the view that Russia seeks to weaken Ukraine by waging a war of attrition. However, Ukraine might win, provided it keeps receiving military support from Western allies and adopts a defensive stance against Russian aggression.
Institut Montaigne
Guerre en Ukraine, deux ans après
According to this article, at the Munich Security Conference in February Europeans felt more than ever the urgency to react, while the 60 billion dollars in American aid are blocked in Congress. The brief asks: what are the driving forces behind current Putinian rhetoric? How are military positions and the state of public opinion evolving? From awareness to gradually accepting risk, how should Europe adapt its strategy?
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
Ukraine puts us to the test
The author claims that when the full-scale Russian offensive began on 24 February 2022, few observers believed it possible that, two years later, one of the world’s largest armies would still be bogged down in Ukraine. The country has resisted but it must have more military and political support. Ukraine needs to advance towards EU and NATO membership, albeit progressively, as is being discussed in Brussels.
Centre for Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich)
On the threshold of a third year of war: Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis
The article examines the problems faced by the Ukrainian army in terms of manpower shortage, the constraints of the mobilisation process, the high average age of its soldiers, etc. The new mobilisation law might be a necessary step to improve the situation.
Clingendael Institute
Steun aan Oekraïne: geen tijd om te verliezen
The article argues that 2024 will be a crucial year for Ukraine and for European security. Two years after the large-scale invasion and ten years after the annexation of Crimea, the end of this war is not in sight.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine
Based on the notion that the Russian leadership lacks a master plan for the war against Ukraine and is primarily reacting to developments on the battlefield and to Western action and inaction, this article considers that the West, and in particular the EU and NATO, needs to invest in supporting Ukraine and its own security in the long term. Only through negotiations with security guarantees can Ukraine achieve lasting peace, and only with these western investments can it be made clear to Putin’s regime that it cannot win the war.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Making attrition work: a viable theory of victory for Ukraine
According to this analysis, there are no conditions for another Ukrainian ground offensive in 2024. Therefore, to maximise its chances of victory, high levels of attrition should be privileged over mobility and direct attack. Western countries should help Ukraine ramp up industrial production of capabilities which provide the greatest advantages in an attritional war.
Brookings Institution
Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check? A Brookings debate
Six Brookings scholars debate the questions that Ukraine and its supporters now face. Is Russia winning its war against Ukraine? Should the US and its allies push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia? How can the US and its allies best ensure security and stability in Ukraine and Europe? Should NATO take further steps toward Ukrainian membership at its 75th-anniversary summit in Washington in July? What concrete steps should the US and Europe take in 2024 to prevent a Ukrainian defeat? What would the consequences of a Russian victory be for the trans-Atlantic alliance?
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Rusia, Ucrania y el campo de batalla “transparente”
The brief deals with the profusion of intelligence assets on the Ukrainian battlefield which brings us closer to the situation of a "transparent" battlefield, in the sense that practically all the elements present in the theatre of operations can be detected and located in a very short time. This "transparent" condition of the battlefield has doctrinal and strategic consequences, which explain many of the dynamics that can be observed today on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Deter and divide: Russia's nuclear rhetoric and escalation risks in Ukraine
This analysis focuses on three critical questions: to what end(s) has Russia used nuclear threats and what impact have they had? Have Western efforts to prevent nuclear use been effective? Would Putin consider using nuclear weapons if Russia were losing in Ukraine?
United States Institute of Peace
In search of a formula for lasting peace in Ukraine
The article summarizes Ukraine’s and Western countries’ efforts to ensure a formula for a lasting peace. The key elements are investments in a security structure and institutions that will serve as a disincentive to further Russian aggression.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Ucrania, dos trágicos años sin luz al final del túnel
The article takes the view that Ukraine is dependent on what others decide about its future, which does not appear to be bright, considering Putin’s efforts to place Ukraine under his zone of influence and the increasing fatigue among Western countries in terms of delivering aid.
Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier (Danish Institute of International Studies)
Humanitarian principles are under fire in Ukraine
Based on insights from field research conducted in Ukraine including interviews with humanitarian staff, this brief outlines the ways in which neutrality and impartiality among humanitarian actors in Ukraine are challenged and in some cases compromised. Following this, the brief also looks at the implications for future humanitarian work in Ukraine and other conflict zones.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung (Heinrich Böll Foundation)
Ukraine: wie eine Gesellschaft sich neu erfindet
The article explains how the world admires Ukraine's resilience. In addition to its military strength, Ukraine's resilience is based on its high degree of social self-organization. What is its motivation; how has this experience changed Ukraine; how deeply rooted is this movement in Ukrainian history and the culture of self-organization and the pursuit of freedom, are some of the questions the brief tries to answer.
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
Europe has a long way to go to replace US aid – large gap between commitments and allocations
The team of the Ukraine support tracker introduces a new measure to track foreign government aid to Ukraine – government “allocations”. The data show that total European aid has long overtaken US aid, but also that the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large. To fully replace US military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance.
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)/IFW Kiel/ IFO Institute/ Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Russia’s economy on the eve of the second anniversary of the war
Nearly two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the report gives an overview of the current state of the Russian economy, with a focus on the fiscal situation, external balances, and the effects of Western sanctions on Russia’s trade with the EU and selected third countries.
Council on Foreign Relations
Two years of war in Ukraine: are sanctions against Russia making a difference?
The United States and its allies have imposed broad economic penalties on Russia over its war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, this paper debates whether the sanctions are working.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Friedrich Ebert Foundation)
Build back better for everyone
This policy brief evaluates the approach adopted by the Ukrainian government and international partners, which primarily emphasises reconstruction through economic liberalisation and which has been shaped without the meaningful inclusion of important stakeholders, first and foremost feminist civil society. It argues for an inclusive and transparent process to reconstruct Ukrainian society, with a specific focus on addressing the inequalities exacerbated by the war.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel - Institute for European Studies
Arming Ukraine: can Europe’s bilateral defence agreements make the difference?
At a time when assessments of the war’s trajectory are increasingly bleak, a number of questions arise about the promises and pitfalls of these newfound bilateral security agreements. Who is signing what, and why? What do these NATO and EU members seek to achieve, especially in terms of capability delivery and defence-industrial support? And perhaps most importantly, are they going to make a difference in Ukraine’s armament effort? This brief seeks to address these questions.
Institut Delors
La puissance européenne, serpent de mer ou phénix ?
This article asks if, faced with a large-scale and high-intensity conflict in its geographical area of direct interest, the EU has exercised hard power commensurate with its economic weight; if the war in Ukraine has led to the emergence of a European power, ready for a long-term balance of power, including military power; and if the sea serpent is a phoenix in the making.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Wars and elections: how European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
This paper takes stock of the current state of European public opinion on the war in Ukraine. It draws on the results of a poll ECFR commissioned in January 2024 in 12 European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). Given the mixed picture this analysis reveals, it then puts forward a strategy for how leaders can best make the case to continue European support for Kyiv.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
What’s at stake in the EU elections: Ukraine aid
The European Parliament elections in 2024 will shape the political direction of the EU over the next five years and, therefore, constitute a defining moment. The author examines the impact the elections will have on EU policy in relation to support for Ukraine.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Bilateral security agreements with Ukraine: present opportunities and challenges
Bilateral agreements signed recently by some NATO members (the UK, France and Germany) with Ukraine raise the pressure to maintain support for the country. The article presents short-term benefits of the agreements, arguing that they will serve as a point of reference for other countries, such as Poland.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
EU policy towards Ukraine: entering geopolitical competition over European order
Since 2004, competition between the EU and Russia over the European political, economic and security order intensified sporadically, with a focal point in Ukraine. The EU’s main mitigation tactic in response to this competition used to be denial, but in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this approach became untenable.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Ukraine as a mirror: should we pay an insurance premium?
According to the paper, Ukraine has become a mirror that reflects a number of images: the breakdown of Europe’s security and defence architecture; Russia’s revisionist and revanchist policies; the heroism of the Ukrainian people; Ukraine’s dependency on western and, in particular, US aid; the unity of the 27 EU member states in supporting its neighbour; and the differing perceptions of citizens in Europe and across the world of the nature of the threat the conflict represents.
New America Foundation
Targeting the Wagner group: how the U.S. can strengthen sanctions against Russia
An analysis of the sanctioning of Prigozhin’s corporate holdings, assets, and entities associated with the Wagner Group’s operations over the past decade offers lessons for how to sharpen the bite of diplomatic and financial tools and contain the destabilizing effects of Russia’s irregular forces. To shed light on how the US government has utilized sanctions to curtail the capabilities of Russian irregular groups and how these measures have evolved over time.
Atlantic Council
Undermining Ukraine: how Russia widened its global information war in 2023
The article discusses how in the lead-up to the February 2022 invasion, Russia employed disinformation in the form of narrative warfare to justify military action, mask its planning, and deny any responsibility for the war. It explores how Russia further entrenched these efforts throughout 2023, developing new messages and techniques while recommitting to ones that continue to prove effective.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
The unchanging core: Russian military culture examined through the Ukrainian war
The brief argues that time has arrived to delve into the depths of Russia’s reform and modernization endeavours. It aims to unveil the essence of ‘Ivan’s war’ on Ukrainian soil. This inquiry poses compelling questions: can we truly decipher the unique contours of their military culture and, consequently, discern a distinct Russian way of war?
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Trending? Social media attention on Russia’s war in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of the most important geopolitical events of the 21st century. For almost two years, international news outlets have been covering the war, often providing daily or even hourly updates. But what is the level of public interest and public engagement in countries around the world? When does the war capture an international audience’s attention and what are the events that supplant it? This brief addresses the above questions.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Russia-Ukraine war’s strategic implications
This study offers a holistic analysis of the conflict and its implications for the armed forces of European countries, as well as for NATO, EU defence, aerospace and defence industry in the Euro-Atlantic area.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The Russia-Ukraine war and implications for the European defence industry
Two years after the Russian attack on Ukraine, it is clear to the author that the European defence technological and industrial basis was ill-equipped to face the consequences of a large-scale, high-intensity conflict on the old continent. The war changed three decades of procurement policies, production and technological trends that had previously shaped (not only) Europe’s approach to defence hardware.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Six takeaways from two years of Russia-Ukraine war
This paper deals with six takeaways that can be gained for the armed forces of European countries, NATO and EU defence initiatives, with a view to deterring Moscow from further aggression and if necessary defending Europe from them.
Think Tank reports on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine 03/2022 - 03/2024
Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine 3/2022 – 03/2024
This post does not necessarily represent the positions, policies, or opinions of the Council of the European Union or the European Council.
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