Jul 7, 2023, 11:45 PM (36 minutes ago)
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NATO’s Next Decade
By FP Contributors
What was NATO before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? A Cold War relic in search of a mission, a drain on Washington as it pivoted to Asia, a needless irritant to a nonthreatening Russia—or so a chorus of academic and media pundits told us. French President Emmanuel Macron, Europe’s pundit-in-chief, famously summed up the mood by calling the alliance “brain-dead.”
Countries closer to Russia knew differently, of course, and tirelessly warned their western peers that the alliance still served a vital purpose. Today, in many ways, NATO is back to its roots as a bulwark of the trans-Atlantic West against an expansionist Kremlin. Weapons are heading east, and troops are being forward-deployed. Seeking the bloc’s traditional protection, Finland has joined, Sweden is in the waiting room, and Ukraine’s path to membership will be discussed when NATO leaders meet for their annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next week. All of a sudden, we’re talking about the defense-industrial complex again, tallying ammunition production and counting tanks.
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But this is no return to the past, even if some might be nostalgic for the sense of unity and purpose that seemed to define the West during the Cold War. Having brought that epic contest to a peaceful close without a major conflagration arguably made NATO the most successful military alliance in history. Today, however, the bloc operates in a very different world, where Moscow is just one challenge of many. As allies of Russia, China and Iran now impact European security directly; NATO, in turn, is eyeing new threats to the east.
With its asynchronous combination of 21st-century technology and long-forgotten trench warfare, land battle looks very different today, with many lessons from Ukraine for NATO still to absorb. Russia is much smaller and weaker than the Soviet Union—especially after its forces’ decimation in Ukraine—but it still has its nuclear arsenal. As the Wagner Group’s march toward Moscow showed, the country is also less stable and predictable than the Soviet Union ever was, giving the alliance a whole new set of Russia scenarios to prepare for. And unlike in NATO’s heyday, what was then still called the “Third World” isn’t content to watch from afar but rather wants a say in how conflicts are managed.
To give us a sense of how a revitalized NATO might address these and other challenges, Foreign Policy asked nine prominent experts from Europe and the United States for their views. Below, they discuss some of the most important topics facing NATO leaders next week and going forward, from membership for Ukraine to the bloc’s role in facing China. —Stefan Theil, deputy editor
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Security Guarantees Are Ukraine’s Bridge to Membership, By Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO secretary-general
Ukraine in NATO Will Make Europe Safer, By Dmytro Kuleba, foreign minister of Ukraine
NATO’s New Power Bloc, By Kristi Raik, deputy director of the International Centre for Defence and Security
Is NATO Ready for Chaos in Russia?, By Angela Stent, author of "Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest"
The EU and NATO’s New Division of Labor, By Liana Fix, Europe fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Trump-Proofing the Alliance, By Ulrich Speck, foreign affairs columnist at Neue Zürcher Zeitung
NATO’s China Role Starts in Europe, By A. Wess Mitchell, principal at the Marathon Initiative
Shielding 500 Million Europeans Is Priority One, By Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa
Make NATO a Network, Not a Bloc, By Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America
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