By Alexandra Sharp
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Russia’s extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the dissolution of Ecuador’s parliament amid impeachment hearings, and rising global temperature warnings from the United Nations.
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Moscow Extends Grain Initiative
Bulk carriers are docked at a grain terminal in the port of Odesa, Ukraine, on April 10.Bo Amstrup/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
The world narrowly avoided a grain supply chain catastrophe on Wednesday, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative another two months—just one day before the agreement was set to expire. The deal allows Ukraine to export commercial food and fertilizer to the rest of the world by establishing a safe transportation corridor from the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi.
Had Putin not extended the initiative, Russia could have returned to conducting a full-scale maritime blockade of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine supplies more than 13.5 million metric tons of wheat, making it the fifth-largest wheat exporter in the world. This means any hurdles to accessing Ukrainian grain exports could worsen global food insecurity, as seen in the early days of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Under the initiative, more than 30.3 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs have successfully reached other countries. Developing nations have specifically benefited, with nearly 57 percent of grain exports reaching countries such as Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia, and Afghanistan.
Putin initially hoped the Black Sea Grain Initiative’s extension deadline could be an effective bargaining chip to curtail Western sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports. This strategy worked with some success during the last round of extension negotiations in March, FP’s Christina Lu and Robbie Gramer explained at the time. “While Western sanctions exclude Russian agricultural products, Moscow says the sanctions have hampered those exports by targeting Russian insurers and payment companies”—a complaint Putin reiterated in this round’s negotiations.
However, according to Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Russia profits from the deal far more than it’s hurt by it, with grain exports doubling under the initiative’s protections. And with Ukraine suggesting other alternatives if the Black Sea Grain Initiative failed, Russia faced political pressure to acquiesce.
“Russia wants to have its cake and eat it, too,” said Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It wants to be able to invade a major agricultural producer, cause disruption in global agricultural markets, and also not experience any disruptions itself.”
Established in July 2022, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended twice since its creation: once in November 2022 and then again in March. When the DSM Capella, carrying 30,000 metric tons of corn en route to Turkey, left the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk on Wednesday, U.N. officials feared it would be the last authorized ship to leave Ukraine. But now, a renewed Black Sea Grain Initiative soothes food supply chain worries for at least another 60 days.
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What We’re Following
“Mutual death.” Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso is scrambling to secure his power amid the threat of impeachment. The right-leaning leader disbanded Ecuador’s National Assembly on Wednesday in a bid to prevent the body from holding removal hearings over allegations of embezzlement. Lasso used a constitutional measure known as muerte cruzada, or “mutual death,” which grants the president the right to rule by decree for six months or until new snap elections are held; this was the first time the measure had been used in Ecuador’s history.
Lasso was accused of allowing an embezzlement scheme between a state-run oil transportation company and a private tanker company to occur. However, Lasso has argued that the corporations’ contracts were signed before he was sworn into office.
By dissolving parliament, Lasso put an immediate end to his trial. The president has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, saying the National Assembly’s inquiry is strictly a political move. Ecuador’s military has since promised to maintain peace in the capital if violence were to erupt. The country’s National Electoral Council now has seven days to call for new elections, which are to be held within three months.
Heating up. Global temperatures are now more likely than not to hit 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming for one year in the next five years, according to a report by the U.N. World Meteorological Organization published on Wednesday. This is the first time such a grave prediction has been made; last year, the odds of breaching 1.5 degrees Celsius were 50 percent. This year’s report puts the odds at 66 percent. The report also indicated a 98 percent likelihood that at least one year between 2023 and 2027 would be the warmest on record.
Although the prediction is for a temporary warming and would not mean breaching the long-term 1.5-degree threshold over preindustrial levels established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, it still represents a dire threat. Climate change’s destructive forces are already devasting many areas of the world. In northern Italy, catastrophic flooding killed at least eight people and displaced at least 5,000 others, as of Wednesday. More than 219,000 people in central Somalia have been forced to relocate after mass flooding decimated villages, sparking fears of a widespread cholera and malaria outbreak. And more than 130 people were killed in Rwanda this month from landslides and deadly flooding.
Barred opposition. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen barred the country’s primary opposition party from running in July’s election on Monday. According to Cambodia’s National Election Commission, the Candlelight Party failed to file required paperwork in time, disqualifying it from the contest. The party plans to appeal the body’s decision.
This is not the first time Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party has removed a top challenger. Prior to the country’s 2018 election, state-run courts dissolved the Cambodia National Rescue Party. The government then convicted around 100 opposition figures, going so far as to accuse some of treason. The Cambodian People’s Party currently holds all 125 seats in the country’s National Assembly.
Odds and Ends
Looking for an extracurricular activity in Japan? Try smiling lessons. After three years of government COVID-19 mask guidelines, some Japanese citizens are saying they’ve forgotten how to smile. Now that the official masking recommendations have eased, people across the country are signing up for classes to relearn how to grin and say cheese.
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