Monday, February 7, 2022

How Do the Militaries of Russia and Ukraine Stack Up?

 

How Do the Militaries of Russia and Ukraine Stack Up?

Russia’s extraordinary show of force in and around Ukraine underscores the military imbalance between the two countries. 

How big is Russia’s military buildup?

Russia is mobilizing a massive combat force near its border with Ukraine that includes tanks, artillery, rockets, and other heavy weaponry. It is also reportedly moving naval assets into the region to bolster its fleet in the Black Sea. Although the exact number and locations of Russian units are not clear given open source data collection limitations, experts say these deployments are extraordinary and mark a worrying escalation of the country's ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Russian Forces Deployed Near Ukraine
Estimated locations of new and permanently stationed Russian troops as of January 31, 2022
A map showing the estimated locations of Russian troops deployed near Ukraine

ESTONIA

0

250 km

6,000 troops

0

250 mi

700

Iskander missile units

LATVIA

Baltic Sea

Moscow

Russia-backed separatists

LITHUANIA

NATO member

BELARUS

Kaliningrad Oblast

Russian territory with

large military presence

RUSSIA

There are an estimated 59,750 troops near Ukraine, excluding air, naval, and paratrooper forces. There are likely additional troops in Belarus.

POLAND

Kyiv

Kharkiv

SLOVAKIA

UKRAINE

Dnipro

Donetsk

HUNGARY

MOLDOVA

Odesa

ROMANIA

Crimea

Annexed

by Russia

Black Sea

BULGARIA

GEORGIA

TURKEY

According to data from Rochan Consulting, there are about sixty thousand Russian military personnel positioned along the border with Ukraine, in Russia-annexed Crimea, and in Belarus, where they ostensibly entered for joint military exercises set for mid-February. However, various Western media citing official and nonofficial sources have said Russia has marshaled between 100,000 and 130,000 forces, likely including additional air, naval, and paratrooper personnel. It’s unclear if and how many Russian regular forces are in Ukraine’s disputed Donbas region aiding the tens of thousands of separatists; Russia continues to deny any involvement there.

How does Russia’s military compare to Ukraine’s?

More From Our Experts

Russia’s military is far superior. Defense analysts say this gives Russia a range of options if it decides to escalate further, such as bolstering separatists fighting in the Donbas to a full-fledged assault aimed at seizing all of Ukraine.

More on:

Ukraine

Russia

Military Operations

Wars and Conflict

The countries’ success or failure on the battlefield would be influenced by many factors. These include but are not limited to: the quality of the militaries’ training and leadership, their logistical and technical support, international aid, their morale, the level of civilian resistance, weather, and terrain. Moreover, many of these elements would likely change throughout the conflict. For instance, experts say that Russia’s military advantage would diminish if its offensive were to drag on for an extended period and develop into a grinding insurgency with Ukrainian forces.

Russia’s Military Advantage
Selected military assets as of November 2020
An infographic showing Russia has a large advantage over Ukraine in military assets

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

Active-duty troops

209,000

= 100,000

900,000

Reserve troops

= 100,000

900,000

2,000,000

Tanks

= 1,000

2,172

9,780

Artillery

= 1,000

5,725

1,962

Surface-to-surface

missile launchers

= 10

90

151

Combat aircraft

= 100

160

1,857

Combat vessels

(Black Sea only)

1

= 1

12

Notes: Tanks include only main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Combat aircraft include only combat-

capable fixed-wing aircraft and attack helicopters. Combat vessels include only principal surface combatants and submarines in the Black Sea. Graphic excludes space and cyber forces, as well as most nuclear forces.

Many defense experts note that Russia has undertaken a remarkable modernization effort since its war with Georgia in 2008, one that has transformed its Soviet-era force into an increasingly well-equipped and well-organized military. Additionally, its members have gained considerable combat experience in the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine.

How much do Russia and Ukraine spend on their militaries?

Ukraine has increased its military budget significantly since 2014. But even with that boost and the significant financial support of the United States and other allies, Ukraine is still vastly outspent by Russia. The great financial resources required to sustain Russia’s recent mobilization around Ukraine is illustrative of the wide disparity between the two countries’ military capabilities.

Michael Bricknell contributed to the graphics for this In Brief.

 

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