U.S. -Israel relationship

 

It’s an old geopolitical adage that nations don’t have friends, they have interests. But the tightly bound U.S.-Israeli relationship seems to be the exception to the rule. However, as the Middle East’s geopolitics shift, so too do the factors that have kept the United States and Israel so close for decades. The United States and Israel alliance was born during the Cold War, as Israel’s biggest enemies in the Arab world fell into Soviet orbit. But with the fall of the Soviet Union, treaties with Egypt and Jordan, and the civil war in Syria, today only Iran remains a mutual threat to both the U.S. and Israel. And even there, the U.S. and Israel no longer see eye to eye: while the U.S. wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran to reduce tensions in the region and shift America's focus towards China, Israel is adamantly opposed to a nuclear deal that doesn’t somehow defang many of the other threats Iran poses to Israel, like its regionwide militia forces and its far-reaching ballistic missiles. But it’s not just Iran that’s creating differences of opinion. Israel is far from returning to peace talks with the Palestinians and instead seems to be drifting towards an expanded Israel, as its politicians rely on the support of a more and more right-wing electorate. Yet in the U.S., and in particular the currently ruling Democratic Party, opinions are starting to change towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with more politicians and citizens viewing Israel’s policies as damaging to regional stability and becoming more willing to break old taboos to criticize Israel. Meanwhile, Israel is finding new friends in the Muslim world -- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These new alliances are freeing Israel up from dependence on the U.S., as it finds new capital markets, security partners, and anti-Iran allies that can serve as useful back-ups should the U.S. focus on Iran ever wane.   There’s still a lot of life left in the U.S.-Israeli relationship. But more criticism of each other’s policies, and more independence from one another’s objectives, seem a sure bet as the 2020’s unfold. Ryan Bohl is a Stratfor Middle East and North Africa analyst at RANE. He focuses on strategic, demographic, social, diplomatic, and political issues in the greater MENA region. His area of expertise is particularly on Gulf Cooperation Council member state behavior, the Levant, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Yemen, and aspects of the U.S. Middle Eastern policy. Mr. Bohl holds a Bachelor’s and Master’s Degree from Arizona State University. He has lived and worked in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and has been cited as a regional expert in numerous publications, including the Associated Press, Bloomberg, and Time Magazine. You can follow him on Twitter at @Ryan_Bohl.