Monday, October 6, 2025

Ali Tuygan (Rtd. ambassador) -- October 6, 2025 - A Critical Day for Gaza

 

A Critical Day for Gaza

October 6, 2025

On September 29, 2025, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu met at the White House. Mr. Trump announced his 20-point plan for Gaza. During remarks to the media with the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr. Trump said that Hamas has ‘three or four days’ to respond to the proposal.

Last Friday, “An Agreement must be reached with Hamas by Sunday Evening at SIX (6) P.M., Washington, D.C. time. Every Country has signed on! If this LAST CHANCE agreement is not reached, all HELL, like no one has ever seen before, will break out against Hamas.” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social.

His fixing the deadline one day before the second anniversary of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel was another warning to Hamas, signaling that without an agreement, that very day would be a big day of punishment. Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey started talks with both Hamas and the US administration.

The Gaza peace plan is a jointly prepared US-Israel ultimatum to Hamas. And it seems that suggestions by Arab countries for more clarity on the future of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and political transition toward the two-state solution were overlooked.

Last Friday, Hamas, in a brief statement, announced its agreement to release all Israeli hostages, both living and dead, provided that the field conditions for the exchange are met.[i] It confirmed its readiness to immediately enter negotiations through mediators to discuss the details of this process. It also reiterated its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and supported by Arab and Islamic backing.

The statement also said, “As for other issues mentioned in President Trump’s proposal regarding the future of the Gaza Strip and the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people, these are linked to a unified national position, based on relevant international laws and resolutions, and will be discussed through a comprehensive Palestinian national framework, in which Hamas will participate responsibly and contribute fully”.

In other words, Hamas underlined that it intends to remain an actor in shaping Palestinian policy.

President Trump called on Israel to “immediately” stop bombing Gaza as he welcomed Hamas’s acceptance of his peace plan.  He also thanked the countries involved in the peace plan, specifically mentioning Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Türkiye.

The plan, only in its final two paragraphs, extends beyond the war in Gaza and “addresses” the Palestinian issue. It says:

“19. While Gaza redevelopment advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.

“20. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.”

The peace plan is more a list of guidelines than a detailed step-by-step road map toward peace. It is clear about the deradicalization of Gaza and the eradication of Hamas. However, it is vague about what would follow the hostage-prisoner exchange, in particular about Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Article 3 of the plan says, “If both sides agree to the proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed-upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.”

Hamas has demanded all along a full Israeli withdrawal and a guarantee that Israel will not resume the war once the hostages are freed. However, Mr. Netanyahu never agreed with that.

Article 9 of the peace plan says that Gaza will be governed by a new international transitional body, the ‘Board of Peace,’ which will be led by President Trump, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will establish the framework and oversee funding for Gaza’s redevelopment until the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program.

As for Mr. Tony Blair’s new role in Gaza, this was how a Guardian article was summarized: “Former PM seems a perfect fit for Trump’s new era but his track record in the Middle East is not reassuring.”[ii]

What Prime Minister Netanyahu said in his joint press conference with Mr. Trump was just as important as the contents of the 20-point peace plan, if not more.[iii] He started by saying, yet again, that President Trump is the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.

Here are some key takeaways from his remarks:

“Mr. President, when our two countries stand shoulder to shoulder, we achieve the impossible.

“Just a few months ago, in Operation Rising Lion and Operation Midnight Hammer, we struck a decisive blow against Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. Your bold decision to send those B2s made the region safer and the world safer.

“Everybody asks, ‘What is your plan for the day after Hamas?”

“All our hostages, both those who are alive and those who died, all of them will return home immediately.”

“The next step will be the establishment of an international body charged with fully disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza.”

“Now, if this international body succeeds, we will have permanently ended the war. Israel will conduct further withdrawals linked to the extent of disarmament and demilitarization, but will remain in the security perimeter for the foreseeable future.”

“But if Hamas rejects your plan, Mr. President, or if they supposedly accept it and then basically do everything to counter it, then Israel will finish the job by itself.”

“This can be done the easy way or it can be done the hard way, but it will be done.”

“Mr. President, I was encouraged by your clear statement at the UN against the recognition of a Palestinian state. That would be an outcome that, after October 7th,  would reward terrorists, undermine security, and endanger Israel’s very existence.”

“As for the Palestinian Authority, I appreciate your firm position that the PA could have no role whatsoever in Gaza without undergoing a radical and genuine transformation.”

“History has already shown that under your leadership, Israel and America can change the face of the Middle East.”

Once the plan was announced, many European leaders, among them President Macron, Prime Minister Starmer, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Sanchez, and European Council President Antonio Costa, expressed their support for the plan. The Italian government said that the proposal presented by President Trump could mark a turning point.

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar, and Egypt issued a joint statement welcoming US President Donald Trump’s sincere efforts to end the war in Gaza. They expressed their confidence in his ability to find a path to peace.

With similar statements of appreciation and support for the 20-point peace plan,  European and Middle Eastern leaders were clearly aiming to win favor with President Trump beyond their desire to bring an end to the war in Gaza.

Thus, France and Saudi Arabia, the co-chairs of the “High-Level International Conference on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and Implementation of Two-State Solution”, were once again on the same page, this time together with Mr. Trump.

The Palestinian Authority also welcomed the sincere and determined efforts of President Trump to end the war in Gaza and affirmed its confidence in his ability to find a path toward peace. It also underscored the importance of the partnership with the US in achieving peace.

President Erdoğan, in a post on X wrote, “I commend US President Donald Trump’s efforts and leadership aimed at halting the bloodshed in Gaza and achieving a ceasefire. Türkiye will continue to contribute to the process with a view to establishing a just and lasting peace acceptable to all parties.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “Russia always supports and welcomes any efforts by President Trump aimed at ending this ongoing tragedy.”

“China welcomes and supports all efforts conducive to easing tensions between Palestine and Israel,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a regular press briefing.

After two years of war, Israel finds itself at a different point than on the morning of October 8, 2023.

In January 2024, the International Court of Justice found it is “plausible” that Israel violated the Genocide Convention. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant, together with a former Hamas commander, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

More recently, the UN’s independent international commission of inquiry has accused Israel of “genocidal intent”.

Israel’s military operations in Gaza have led to expressions of  “disappointment”, “deep concern”, “criticism”, and “condemnation” across the world.

Demonstrations against Israel are continuing across the West.

Looking at what has transpired since October 7, 2023, including developments of the past few weeks, I wonder if the Turkish government’s public discourse on Gaza could have remained in line with other countries that were just as shocked by and vocal in their criticism of the atrocities committed in IDF operations and the loss of life and destruction caused. I ask the question because Ankara’s language on the war in Gaza must have led to discomfort among Arab countries, particularly those that are party to the Abraham Accords. There are others also unhappy with Ankara’s relations with the Muslim Brotherhood.

All of that could have enabled us to play a more active role in the long-term search for regional peace.

Regardless, it appears that we shall continue riding two horses at the same time, on the one side supporting President Trump’s Gaza peace plan, and on the other side, continuing with our anti-Israel rhetoric and pro-Hamas policy.

In 1967, Israel fought the Six-Day War against Syria, Egypt, and Jordan.

In 1973, Israel fought the Yom Kippur War against Egypt and Syria. The war started on October 6 and ended three weeks later on October 26. Israel signed a ceasefire agreement with Egypt on November 11, 1973, and with Syria on May 31, 1974.

The war with Hamas has lasted two years so far.

Moreover, since October 7, 2023, Israel has carried out military operations against Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and finally Qatar, although it later apologized for the last one.

In brief, achieving lasting peace in the Middle East remains a major challenge.

With Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff now in Cairo in a last effort to finalize the “technical details” of the plan, today will be critical. Beyond the Trump peace plan, much would depend on Mr. Netanyahu and what kind of a turn Israeli politics might take in the future.


[i] https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025/10/04/full-text-of-hamass-statement-in-response-to-trumps-gaza-plan/

[ii] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/30/fatal-flaws-analysts-cast-doubt-on-tony-blair-plan-for-future-of-gaza?CMP=share_btn_url

[iii] https://www.gov.il/en/pages/event-statement-300925

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