Atlantic Council Editors Editors Picks This week's edition brought to you by Cate Hansberry, Publications Editor APRIL 15, 2023

Atlantic Council Editors <editor@atlanticcouncil.org> 

Editors  Picks     

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This week's edition brought to you by

Cate Hansberry, Publications Editor

APRIL 15, 2023 

 It's springtime in DC, so it's time to break out all of our favorite traditions: cherry blossoms, baseball, pollen, outdoor dining—and IMF-World Bank meetings. Throughout the week, central bankers, finance ministers, and other policy leaders passed through Atlantic Council HQ to confer with our experts, providing insights into the meetings as they unfolded. Read on for more on the money meetings, plus a preview of summer plans around the world: the July NATO summit, rebuilding in Turkey, and Russia’s nuclear maneuvers in Belarus.

 

1 - Summit push. NATO’s upcoming summit in Vilnius, Lithuania is shaping up to be a high-stakes meeting of the minds that could prove decisive in the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. And our team is hard at work shaping the debate. NATO experts Charles Barry and Chris Skaluba delivered a primer for how to make this a constructive convening, arguing that increased military support from the United States and its allies will enable Ukraine's victory and underwrite NATO's political credibility as a champion of democratic values. Meanwhile, former Pentagon official Ian Brzezinski and former US Ambassador to NATO and Russia Alexander Vershbow penned a memo to NATO leaders advocating that they begin the process of fully integrating Ukraine into the transatlantic community, including as a member of NATO. Plus, don’t miss international security expert Frank Kramer’s compelling argument for why NATO should offer Ukraine a membership plan right now. Dive into the primer and memo and consider yourself briefed for Vilnius.

 

2 - Money on my mind. The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings focused on ambitious economic reform amid global economic worries including banking crises and high inflation—but many of the hottest conversations were happening a few blocks away in our offices. Top ministers from Senegal to Spain to the United Arab Emirates gave their readouts of the meetings—and prescriptions for the global economy during a week in which “fragmentation” was the buzzword. Our experts were also breaking down the biggest news, as former IMF Chief of Staff Martin Mühleisen noted some potential progress on debt restructuring for poor countries, with hope emerging for a “palatable compromise” on a difficult issue. Don't miss all the highlights.

 

3 - Unfriendly fire. Following the recent rocket attack on Israel from Lebanon, Israel publicly blamed Palestinian groups. Nicholas Blanford, a longtime journalist and expert on Lebanese Hezbollah, disagrees. He dives into the evidence to argue that the perpetrators were “most likely Hezbollah personnel, not members of Hamas or any other Palestinian faction.” Hezbollah's “increasingly brazen behavior” around where the United Nations peacekeeping force operates in south Lebanon suggests that Hezbollah may be adopting a more confrontational stance against Israel. The brief outbreak of violence has ended, Nicholas says, but the root causes of the conflict remain unresolved. Read more of Nicholas’s takeaways from the attacks.

 

4 - Creeping annexation. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, met in Moscow for two days of talks this month but avoided the topic of nuclear weapons—despite Russia's plans to station such weapons in Belarus. Belarusian journalist Hanna Liubakova writes that those plans have been “viewed as a further escalation in Putin's nuclear saber-rattling tactics” and an attempt to assert informal control over Belarus. Despite Lukashenka's apparent acceptance of the takeover of his country by Russia, Hanna writes, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus is opposed by 80 percent of the population, according to recent research. The move could spur “a new wave of Belarusian opposition, especially if Russia suffers further military setbacks in Ukraine,” Hanna writes.  Dive into Hanna's take here.

 

5 - Rebuilding resilience. The earthquakes that struck Turkey in February resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and injuries and billions of dollars lost. Despite the scale of the damage, Selen Ucak, a social impact professional, argues that a robust recovery is possible—so long as the effort includes “private-sector support for local development” and “does not leave vulnerable communities behind, including the displaced.” She advocates for “impact investing,” which prioritizes social and environmental benefits along with financial returns. With a focus on urban resilience and self-reliance for both refugees and internally displaced people, this system could be a good model for other areas of the world affected by natural disasters. Open up Selen’s recovery toolbox here.