This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a comatose geriatric of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Let’s settle this debate, once and for all: Were Rihanna’s backup dancers supposed to be unidentified flying objects? Or were their costumes recycled spy balloons? It’s okay if you’re confused — everyone is. The Great American Balloon: A Gaffe Of Our Lifetime (GABAGOOL, for short — also the title of my forthcoming novel) has implications that go far beyond the outfits at the Super Bowl halftime show. Although defense officials initially claimed the US’s inability to spot the balloon was merely a “domain awareness gap,” we now know they had been keeping tabs on it the entire time, hoping Montanans wouldn’t think anything of the massive white orb floating in the sky. Of course, they noticed, writes Niall Ferguson. Spy balloons — identified or unidentified — aren’t the only thing America is up against. If a war were to break out between the US and China over Taiwan, the American defense industry would quickly be exposed as “a comatose geriatric.” In the past, people have looked at things like wealth to figure out who would win a war. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned that idea on its head: Its prewar GDP was nine times larger than Ukraine's. Putin would have won by now if wealth production were a barometer of military might. Instead, Niall says, we should look at manufacturing as a power indicator. The number one thing you need during war is an economy that can crank out tanks, missiles and submarines as fast as it does dishwashers and refrigerators. By that measure, the US pales in comparison to China. It’s a “domain awareness gap” that can’t be covered up: In a matter of weeks, a shooting war with China over Taiwan could expend 5,000 long-range missiles — some of which take years to manufacture. The few industrial giants that America has left, such as Boeing, are not pleased to be caught in the crosshairs of a geopolitical relationship in which they are “far from the top priority” and over which they have no true control, Brooke Sutherland writes. Add World War III into the mix, and you’ve got yourself a military misadventure that isn’t going to end well. Read the whole thing. For the uninitiated, Erewhon Market is a grocery store chain in Los Angeles that believes “nutrition is the key to a radiant lifestyle.” It’s as if Whole Foods had a baby with Gwyneth Paltrow’s Goop Inc. Celebrities from Hailey Bieber to Bella Hadid have collaborated with the luxury supermarket to create “skin-supporting” collagen smoothies that will cost you a small fortune:  But Erewhon is not just peddling $22 smoothies packed with probiotics and pine pollen, it’s selling a lifestyle. Centuries of self-help books have made similar promises: Get thin quick! Build a business out of thin air! Invest $1 and get rich in 365 days! But here’s the catch: Slurping down sea moss gel isn’t going to radically change your life. And neither will books on financial advice, Merryn Somerset Webb writes. For the past 300 years, very smart people have written a bajillion books on how to handle your money, all of which say pretty much the same thing: buy low, sell high, diversify, keep your emotions in check … you get the picture. And with all that investing advice, you’d think we’d all be millionaires by now, but (surprise!) we’re not. “To be thin, successful or rich, we have to do actual work (eat differently, start a business, learn valuation methods), and mostly we don’t do that,” Merryn explains. Of course, life often gets in the way of saving money — maybe you have student loans or you need a knee replacement or you unexpectedly total your car. And costs are rising constantly, which also eats away at our paychecks. Take child care, for instance: Alexis Leondis says a city-dwelling family can spend around 20% of income on infant care alone, and the tax benefits to offset those expenses are dwindling: For those without kids, it might be easier to build up a cash cushion. But it’s also OK to indulge every now and then and sacrifice your financial goals, Erin Lowry reminds us. If an overpriced smoothie brings you joy, maybe that’s not such a bad thing after all. We showcase a lot of charts in this newsletter, but this one from Lisa Jarvis might take the cake for The Most Frightening Chart of All Time. Kids can’t tell the difference between medicinal weed gummies and Haribo gummy bears — a significant problem now that marijuana can be as commonplace as a bowl of bananas on a kitchen table. Accidental cannabis ingestion for preschoolers (yes, preschoolers!) is up 1,375% in 4 years: Crusades against ESG investing in Florida and Texas are costing residents hundreds of millions of additional tax dollars. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis “is poisoning the market for AAA rated Florida debt,” Matthew Winkler writes. Culture wars are all fun and games until somebody loses their shirt: For 30 years, state and local pension administrators have treated red-hot stock market gains as permanent profits. But when those investments inevitably drop, it’s viewed as a mere setback. If this doom-spiral of wishful thinking continues, Aaron Brown says, a pension fiasco is all but inevitable. Myanmar has descended into chaos, and a sham election could make it worse. — Bloomberg’s editorial board 5%-plus interest rates might not be enough to get inflation under control. — Bill Dudley Joe Biden’s dream to be America’s Infrastructure President is going to get expensive. — Matthew Yglesias Can ChatGPT write a better novel than I can? — Stephen Carter Putin is making inroads in Africa, and the West has only itself to blame. — Pankaj Mishra Teen girls are experiencing record levels of sadness. Ford is investing in EVs with a Chinese company. Florida is in trouble for banning the AP Black history course. Mars Wrigley was fined after workers fell into a vat of chocolate. New York's Subways are expensive for a reason. An Italian restaurant is sick of children. Dogs are also accidentally eating weed. A ballet director smeared dog poop on a critic’s face. The wildlife photographer of the year took quite an image. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Which automaker will have the last stick shift standing? (h/t Scott Duke Kominers) Notes: Please send vats of chocolate and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and Facebook. | 
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