POLITICO Brussels Playbook
By SUZANNE LYNCH
January 05, 2022
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ALL EYES ON DRAGHI
ITALY TO PICK A NEW PRESIDENT: The Italian parliament will meet on January 24 to choose a new president, the lower house confirmed Tuesday, paving the way for one of the most consequential political decisions of 2022.
Here’s looking at you, Mario: Speculation is rife that Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who has led a technocratic government for almost a year, is in pole position for the role. The 74-year-old added to the speculation during his end-of-year press conference last month. “We have created the conditions for the work to continue, regardless of who is there,” he remarked — his strongest hint yet that he wants the job.
Why it matters: As the EU’s third-largest economy, what happens in Italy matters. Draghi, a former European Central Bank president, has widely been credited with restoring stability to Italy since he took the reins last year, following years of political and economic turmoil in the country. As president, Draghi would still shape politics — though largely a ceremonial role, the Italian president has the power to nominate heads of government and ministers, and resolve government deadlocks. But removing Draghi as prime minister would be seen as deeply unsettling. Not least because Draghi is responsible for managing Italy’s colossal €200 billion slice of the EU’s €800 billion recovery fund. (Rome submitted its first payment request for a €21 billion disbursement this week.)
It’s complicated: As Professor Roberto D’Alimonte of the Luiss School of Government in Rome tells Playbook, this is unchartered territory: “It has never been the case before in Italy that a sitting prime minister becomes a president. There is no precedent.” Specifically, the Italian lawmakers who will choose the next president would have to find a substitute for the prime minister — not an easy task, given that Draghi has commanded a solid majority that will be difficult to replicate due to his unique cross-party popularity and years of experience.
Election threat: Looming over the decision is the threat of an early election. Italy’s next vote is not due until 2023, but Draghi’s departure could trigger a government collapse. While political parties will be combing the latest poll numbers to assess if an early ballot would be advantageous, there is also another factor at play, as D’Alimonte points out. The size of Italy’s parliament is set to be reduced in the next election, with the result that hundreds of representatives may lose their seats — another reason why an early election may not exactly be enticing for lawmakers who would prefer Draghi to stay put.
What officially happens next: In a process that is sometimes likened to a papal enclave, a total of 1,009 electors, from the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies and including 58 regional representatives, will cast secret ballots in a series of voting rounds. In the first three rounds of voting, a two-thirds majority is required to elect the president. From the fourth round on, only an absolute majority is required.
What unofficially happens next: Behind the scenes, negotiations will commence, as Draghi sounds out the options for his possible successor. (Notably, he qualified his comments in his end-of-year press conference by underscoring the need for the current governing coalition to remain in place until the end of this parliament’s term in 2023.) Among the figures in the Draghi mold that may be mooted are Economy Minister Daniele Franco, a former deputy governor of the Bank of Italy, and Justice Minister Marta Cartabia, a former president of the Constitutional Court.
Realpolitik: The reality, however, is that there is no obvious replacement, and it will be a Herculean task to secure enough support for a consensus candidate. What seems likely is that Draghi is unlikely to jump ship to the Quirinale if there is danger of a government collapse. While there have been sightings of retiring President Sergio Mattarella checking out new apartments in Rome as he prepares to vacate the presidential residence, some in Italy are holding out hope that he could be persuaded to stay.
The Italian political world has also been beset by speculation of other possible presidential candidates — everyone from former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to Italy’s EU Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni and European Parliament President David Sassoli.
from POLITICO
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