Friday, March 6, 2026

" The World Unpacked" programı (Carnegie) adına John Baitman, İran'lı yazar Kareem (Kerim) Sajadpouır ile İran'a ABD-İsrail saidırısını ve İrandaki durumu konuşuyor (Transcript)

 

Chapter 1: Iran in Chaos

Iran is in flames with the US and Israel bombarding around the clock. The explosions make for great television,
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but there's been scant attention to what's actually happening inside the country. The Supreme Leader was killed almost a week ago. So, who's running
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Iran? Is the Iranian regime unified and vengeful, or paralyzed and fractured?
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What about Iran's people who took to the streets in January only to face a brutal crackdown? Are normal Iranians ready to
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risk their lives again for another shot at change? I can count on one hand the number of people who can credibly answer
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these questions. One of them is Kareem Sajadpur, who joins me today. I relied on Kareem's writings when I was a young
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intelligence officer tasked with understanding Iran's regime and its top leadership. I never imagined that a
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decade later all my intelligence targets would be dead and Kareem would be on my podcast to explain what comes next.
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Events are moving very quickly right now. So, we're releasing this episode uncut just after we recorded on March
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5th. I'm John Baitman and this is The World Unpacked.
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Karim Sajpur, welcome to the world unpacked. Thank you for having me, John. Uh we're very lucky to have you here.

Chapter 2: Who Runs Iran?

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You are the man of the hour with everything happening in Iran. I know you stayed up late last night doing CNN. You woke up early this morning to do NPR
1 minute, 39 seconds
Morning Edition and now you're here on the World Unpacked talking about a country that is on fire. Uh I don't know
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any other way to begin a conversation about Iran than asking the most basic possible question that is often not how
1 minute, 54 seconds
the mainstream media is covering this issue but is just essential. Who is running Iran? Who is in charge of the country right now?

Chapter 3: Power Vacuum

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So the assassination of Ayat was the political equivalent of a bunker buster.
2 minutes, 8 seconds
You know arguably the longest serving dictator in the world. 37 years he had been ruling Iran. And for most Iranians,
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it was the only leader they'd ever known. And so when someone who's been ruling for four decades just abruptly is
2 minutes, 23 seconds
killed. Um that obviously leaves a vacuum which could take many years to fill. The short answer to the question
2 minutes, 32 seconds
uh from folks I speak to in Tehran is that there's essentially two people who are now have now taken over the
2 minutes, 40 seconds
political and military affairs. The person who's kind of the political leader is a guy called Ali Larijani.
2 minutes, 46 seconds
He's a longtime Islamic Republic apparachic. He has a background in the revolutionary guards and he's thought to
2 minutes, 54 seconds
be not a 10 out of 10 idilogue. Let's call him an eight out of 10 idilogue. He kind of aspires to be like uh Iran's
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Deng Xiaoping, but he also oversaw the massacres, reportedly oversaw the massacres that took place last January.
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So you know my line about him is that he's done more massacring than modernizing. Now the other division of
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labor the military affairs is uh reportedly uh you know based on people I speak to in term
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balib also has a background as a revolutionary guard commander. He's trained as a
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pilot. He's currently speaker of parliament. And so these guys are at the moment um they're in some ways rivals
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because they both aspire to be national leaders but they've banded together and everyone is waiting to see who will be
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named the next supreme leader. It's been reported although not 100% yet confirmed that could be succeeded by his 56year-old son.
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Um, if that is indeed the case, um, you know, as I said, ruled for 37 years.
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It's not clear to me whether Moshabo will live for 37 will rule for 37 days because he will have a bullseye on his back. The Israelis will likely try to assassinate him.

Chapter 4: Regime Under Pressure

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There are so many different threads I want to pull here, but let me just ask all the people that you just mentioned.
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These are the people that are trying to govern a country in crisis, under fire from abroad. We've got assassinations,
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bombs being dropped. One might think that basic things like communicating with each other and moving around even
4 minutes, 36 seconds
the capital city of Thyron might be very very difficult. So when we say these people are in charge, what do you think
4 minutes, 42 seconds
that means? Are they actually able to command and control the military, give orders to the security forces, perform
4 minutes, 51 seconds
basic services and functioning of the state? up or are we seeing signs of breakdown in those areas? I mean, that is such a great question.
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If you try to put yourself in the shoes of these individuals, you know, they probably are all targets for assassination.
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Um, they know that all of their communications have probably been penetrated. So, it's not that they can easily communicate with one another. Um,
5 minutes, 16 seconds
their population, a lot of their population despises them. And then you know this morning there was a piece in the economist that that showed that
5 minutes, 24 seconds
Israel is bombing Iran at the moment about a thousand times per day. Uh so there is on so many levels um an existential crisis which they're facing.
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Um you know I don't know how they're getting any sleep. And so um it is not clear to me how sustainable this is for
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this regime to uh be enduring this kind of military barrage from both America
5 minutes, 53 seconds
and Israel and and they're also you know trying to respond against their Gulf partners.
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I think um well I I won't go to what their strategy is. Maybe I'll wait and you can ask me that if okay I absolutely will. But before we
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get there, I mean the three people that you mentioned, Larjani, Khalibah,
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Moshama Kaban, you know, I'm trying to think of kind of the common themes that unite them, they all have been part of
6 minutes, 19 seconds
the close inner circle, the power structure of the regime in some cases for decades. Um, moving back and forth between military, uh, political,
6 minutes, 30 seconds
religious circles. Um, is there a level of trust there? And are these people all
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true believers in the revolutionary project of the Islamic Republic that Kami
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gave his life for? Or are there other agendas at play and people maybe within this group or maybe in a slightly wider
6 minutes, 54 seconds
circle actually seeing some opportunities here to shift the direction of the country?

Chapter 5: Survival vs Ideology

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So the one common threat for all of them is survival and at this moment it's literal survival. It's obviously survival of the regime but their literal
7 minutes, 8 seconds
survival as well. And I suspect that they have different views about what is
7 minutes, 15 seconds
the best way for them to survive uh as a regime. And this has been a long-standing debate within the Islamic
7 minutes, 23 seconds
Republic. And essentially Ayat's view had prevailed that when your opponent is pressuring you, you shouldn't take a
7 minutes, 31 seconds
step back because that's not going to alleviate the pressure. That's going to project weakness and your opponent will take a step forward. So the longtime
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doctrine I would say that became inextricable part of the Islamic Republic's identity was resistance.
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Resistance against America, resistance against Israel. Now much I think um wants to uphold that worldview of
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resistance between and as I said I I don't think if we say that
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you know was a 10 out of 10 ideologue I would put them in the eight out of 10 category in that um they're not going to
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um you know want to have a friendly relationship with America or even recognize Israel
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But to save themselves and save the regime, I think Lijani at least may be
8 minutes, 26 seconds
prepared to make some uh tactical compromises. The question is um you know what is going to be demanded of him by President Trump and that's not clear.
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Yeah, if I were in the White House situation room or the Pentagon hearing this, moving from a 10 out of 10 to an 8 out of 10, that sounds like pretty good
8 minutes, 47 seconds
news. Maybe there's somebody I could do a deal with. Um, I mean, we'll get to what the US wants. It's incredibly
8 minutes, 53 seconds
unclear and in some cases, uh, very bold and difficult for any Iranian leader to swallow. Uh, tell me what you thought
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when you first started seeing these reports that Moshtaba Kami, the son of
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the deceased Ayatollah, could emerge as the next supreme leader. I mean this is a moment in a way that the regime has
9 minutes, 16 seconds
been preparing for for decades. Um everybody's been watching Ayat you know age. He was 86 years old at the
9 minutes, 24 seconds
time when he was killed by Israeli and US forces. We all knew this succession was coming. There's been a lot of rumors
9 minutes, 31 seconds
and speculation for many years. Probably nobody expected it to happen under these incredible circumstances. So when you
9 minutes, 40 seconds
heard this name, what did that say to you about the priorities,
9 minutes, 46 seconds
the tradeoffs, the dilemmas that regime insiders are making and why him now? So

Chapter 6: Khamenei’s Son Next?

9 minutes, 53 seconds
I wasn't particularly surprised when I heard Mujaba's name because there had
9 minutes, 59 seconds
really in my view only been two serious people in the conversation for six succession over the last five years and
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that was the former president the late president Ibrahim Rayi who died in a helicopter crash in 2024 and Mushaby
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and on one hand a lot of people thought it wouldn't happen because this is a regime that came to power deposing
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hereditary monarchy and saying hereditary monarchy is unislamic and so a lot of people thought that you know
10 minutes, 32 seconds
they they can't um give the job to Moshaba that will undermine you know their whole argument but the reality is
10 minutes, 41 seconds
that in the position of supreme leader I think they're looking for someone who is palatable to the revolutionary guards
10 minutes, 49 seconds
and the senior clergy and has a public name recognition. And there probably wasn't a lot of people um who checked all three of those boxes.
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And someone said to me in Tehran, in some ways Moshaba's stock rose after his father, his wife, and his mother were all killed in this missile strike.
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Okay. So the deaths of most of his close family members maybe would allow him to
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be seen as more of a martyr, someone who has been suffering for his country rather than a nepo baby of the supreme leader.
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Yeah, there's a term in Persian they they say shahid zender, a living martyr. And so you know that could have a role.
11 minutes, 34 seconds
Now John, by the time this comes out, we may find that um Mosha has either been killed or they end up going in another
11 minutes, 42 seconds
direction. But as of now, whatever happens, Moshaba, so long as he's alive,
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is going to be an important figure in the post ayatan.
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Yeah. So Iran watchers are familiar with Mushtaba. You people have known that he's part of the conversation. I'll tell
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you, I was surprised in the following sense. Um, this is a regime that is fighting for survival. Like you said,
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you might think that one of the things they'd be really worried about is legitimacy with the populace. Um, I know
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you've said elsewhere that huge proportions of the Iranian population have become incredibly disenchanted with the regime, with the poor quality of
12 minutes, 24 seconds
life, the corruption, the isolation.
12 minutes, 29 seconds
It's hard to think of anyone who would be a clearer signal of continuity and doubling down that um you know maybe
12 minutes, 38 seconds
he'll just be killed after 47 days, but the other option is it's another 47 years of the same bowl of you've been eating all your life.
12 minutes, 50 seconds
Does that signal something about a regime that maybe feels a little self-confident about its internal status
12 minutes, 58 seconds
and is more worried about elite politics than popular legitimacy right now? I I don't think it's self-confidence. I

Chapter 7: Why No Reform

13 minutes, 6 seconds
think it's a recognition was obsessed with the collapse of the Soviet Union and he like Gorbachev
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believed that the Soviet Union collapsed because Gorbachev tried to reform it.
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And this is an observation which some of the great political philosophers like Machaveli and Toqueville have made that the most dangerous moment for any bad
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government is when they try to reform themselves.
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Xi Jinping in China also has cited this frequently. Yes.
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Absolutely. And so we call these folks people like we call them hardliners. They call
13 minutes, 40 seconds
themselves principalists. And that means that they're loyal to the principles of the revolution. and their belief is that those principles of the revolution are
13 minutes, 49 seconds
like pillars of a building and if you abandon those pillars it's going to collapse on top of your head. So I don't think it's necessarily because they feel
13 minutes, 57 seconds
selfconident. I think they recognize that the gap between them and society is in my view almost irreconcilable.
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But it's this view that if we try to change it's not going to prolong our shelf life, it's going to accelerate our
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demise. It's so fascinating how rigid Iran's power structure seems at a time
14 minutes, 20 seconds
when an outsider might say this is a moment of the the greatest flux and uncertainty in the history of the Islamic Republic established in 1979.
14 minutes, 29 seconds
Um, you might think there'd be people somewhere in this power structure who were waiting for an opportunity to shake
14 minutes, 36 seconds
things up, who wanted to take things in a different direction, maybe not toward democracy, um, but wanted maybe a more
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vibrant economy, maybe, um, better relations with some neighbors. Um, it
14 minutes, 50 seconds
just seems like those voices are being silenced right now or there's just no time to hear from them. So I do think

Chapter 8: The China Model

14 minutes, 57 seconds
that within the regime there were and are some who have this
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aspiration of the China model uh what happened to China post Mao which is essentially we're not going to open up
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politically but we'll open up economically uh we'll ease social restrictions will uh prioritize wealth
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creation rather than cultural revolutionary ideology ology and at the moment I think those folks have not been
15 minutes, 30 seconds
empowered in the system because it's a regime fighting for its survival and when you're fighting for your survival you kind of go back to your base
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instincts and I think at the moment um you know if we want to talk about President Trump I
15 minutes, 45 seconds
think he was hoping to depose the number one guy and do a deal with the number two guy just as he did in Venezuela and
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at the moment There's no one in the Iranian system who has that um legitimacy, the authority, and the will
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to break with 47 years of continuous revolutionary ideology.

Chapter 9: U.S. Leadership Plan?

16 minutes, 8 seconds
Yeah. I mean, I think you said these are principalists and the principle is death to America, death to Israel. It's it's hard to bargain from that framework. Um,
16 minutes, 19 seconds
Trump, by the way, has said several times that the US had in mind a few people that they were hoping to deal with and that they were killed.
16 minutes, 28 seconds
I never know what to make of these kinds of comments. I mean, some of this is the performative
16 minutes, 36 seconds
um, you know, we're so powerful, we can't even help ourselves, right? We're killing even more than we thought.
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Sometimes I think he's just trying to be funny. Is is there a seriousness there?
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Did did the US maybe have in mind um their Deli Rodriguez in Iran?
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I don't think that there were any potential Deli Rodriguezes that were killed. I suspect
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um what's happened is there has been a division of labor between the United States and Israel in this war which is
17 minutes, 10 seconds
you know now 5 days old which is um the US is focusing on degrading Iran's military capabilities missiles and and
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nukes and perhaps command and control centers and by most accounts it's Israel which is carrying out these political
17 minutes, 27 seconds
assassinations. So, seems like President Trump is is is going along with it. It's not I don't know if he is fully aware of
17 minutes, 34 seconds
what um the Israelis are are doing. Um and you know, so far, and this could
17 minutes, 41 seconds
change in the next weeks, but so far it hasn't bombed the regime into pragmatism.
17 minutes, 48 seconds
Yeah. I I think you said something so important that even I am forgetting sometimes as I'm following this war.
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Iran is at war with two different countries and we don't really know the level of political and military
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coordination happening between the United States and Israel. Presumably,
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there's a lot going on there. And after Kame was killed, there was both press reporting suggesting that it was an
18 minutes, 13 seconds
Israeli bomb that hit him, but it was US intelligence that pointed to the target.
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Trump subsequently went on True Social and took credit. But do you have a sense of whether the left
18 minutes, 25 seconds
hand knows what the right hand are do is doing? Is it one war or two that's being waged on Iran right now?

Chapter 10: U.S.–Israel Strategy

18 minutes, 32 seconds
It feels to me that it's very close coordination. I don't know if you could carry out prosecute a war like this without having profound uh coordination.
18 minutes, 44 seconds
But it does raise a question which is um do both countries have the same end goal and I'm not sure that they have the same
18 minutes, 53 seconds
endgame. I think if we you went to President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu separately and say okay write
19 minutes
on a piece of paper what is your ideal outcome in Iran? those uh what they would write is perhaps similar and that
19 minutes, 8 seconds
I think they would both want to see Iran which is somewhat similar to what we saw pre-revolution a country which is
19 minutes, 15 seconds
essentially um you know tries to follow its national interests rather than ideology there was a good relationship u
19 minutes, 23 seconds
between Iran and Israel pre-revolution US and Iran were close partners but absent that ideal scenario if you can't
19 minutes, 32 seconds
get 10 out of 10 you know what are you willing to go for. I think the Israelis
19 minutes, 38 seconds
may not mind an Iran which looks like Syria um which is you know kind of a a
19 minutes, 45 seconds
failed or failing state which has been totally debilitated militarily. That's not their ideal outcome. But you know
19 minutes, 52 seconds
for many years Iran has been their chief adversary and if you can have your chief adversary significantly weakened that's not necessarily a bad outcome. I think
20 minutes
for the United States and our partners in the Persian Gulf, they don't want that outcome. The goal, Trump's goal wasn't to turn Iran into a failed state,
20 minutes, 10 seconds
which um you know is not is not fulfilling its enormous uh positive potential as a nation.

Chapter 11: Trump vs Netanyahu

20 minutes, 18 seconds
Trump is calling Kurdish leaders and asking them to make incursions into Iranian territory. So, I think he might
20 minutes, 27 seconds
be walking us into a civil war, a failed state. We should come back to that. But just briefly on the US and uh Israel,
20 minutes, 35 seconds
is there a scenario in which the war aims may be relatively tightly coordinated now, but they could drift apart over time?
20 minutes, 46 seconds
Could there be a scenario in which one country, maybe the US, is ready to stop and the other country, maybe Israel,
20 minutes, 54 seconds
wants to keep going?
20 minutes, 56 seconds
Absolutely. I think that was the case last June. Um, in the 12-day war, it was something that President Trump kind of announced abruptly. Okay, this war is
21 minutes, 5 seconds
over. It's going to be called the 12-day war. And Israel probably wanted to do a few more rounds of of fighting. This
21 minutes, 13 seconds
time around they must feel that you know they're they have free reign over Iran's skies and there's still a lot of people
21 minutes, 21 seconds
whom they probably want to assassinate namely Moaba and you know continue to go after Iran's
21 minutes, 30 seconds
missile arsenal its nuclear program and President Trump may have very different objectives. Um, as the US president,
21 minutes, 40 seconds
you're obviously sensitive to media, you're sensitive to popular opinion, you're sensitive to the price
21 minutes, 47 seconds
of gasoline. And so, um, we know from from Trump's history that he's capable
21 minutes, 54 seconds
of kind of abruptly declaring an end to hostilities. But I think that it's seems
22 minutes, 2 seconds
to me it's going to be difficult for him to do that without some kind of uh political victory given this war.
22 minutes, 10 seconds
There's been there's been very large costs uh incurred in this war.

Chapter 12: Regime Change Chances

22 minutes, 14 seconds
So the home run for Trump and Netanyahu would be regime change in Iran. I mean this has been explicitly asserted as a
22 minutes, 23 seconds
goal or perhaps the goal from the beginning of the bombing. uh what are we seeing on that front? Uh first of all,
22 minutes, 32 seconds
are there signs that the populace in Iran which took to the streets in great numbers in January over a variety of
22 minutes, 41 seconds
domestic grievances but was then brutally crushed. Are we seeing any renewed signs of life, signs of activity
22 minutes, 49 seconds
from uh the populace and dissenters in the country?
22 minutes, 53 seconds
Not yet. Uh, I think people are shell shocked by this war and President Trump said I think the the night of the war
23 minutes, 1 second
that people should stay in their homes until the until the bombing stops and then to God and seize their
23 minutes, 8 seconds
institutions. But you I was talking to uh an American general who served in Iraq and he said, you know, all
23 minutes, 17 seconds
populations that are living under tyranny understandably want a magic bullet which is only going to kill their oppressors and not do any damage to civilian lives.
23 minutes, 30 seconds
And obviously that doesn't exist. And in my view, um, after the massacres that
23 minutes, 37 seconds
happened last January, uh, and after President Trump had said on nine occasions that help was on the way, in
23 minutes, 44 seconds
my view, a majority of those who protested the regime did want to see President Trump make good on this help.
23 minutes, 51 seconds
It's not clear to me um, what percentage of those people who supported this war
23 minutes, 58 seconds
still continue to support it. I don't have a good feel for that. Yeah.

Chapter 13: Why No Uprising

24 minutes, 5 seconds
You have said that maybe 80 to 85% of the Iranian population is against the
24 minutes, 12 seconds
regime. I wonder if you could break down that figure further. What percentage do you think is against it but in a kind of
24 minutes, 21 seconds
apathetic or resigned way? Um what percentage is so against it that they might be willing to take personal risks?
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I mean, we've seen in many countries,
24 minutes, 31 seconds
you don't need a majority of the population to come out and create the sort of people power that shakes up
24 minutes, 39 seconds
politics or even brings down a government. Uh, it can be a a vanguard of very impassioned smaller groups of
24 minutes, 49 seconds
people um that others are sympathetic with and that ultimately I guess you need somebody in the security forces to sort of sympathize with to to some
24 minutes, 58 seconds
degree. So what how do you break down that 80 to 85% figure into the the passion that that people have to take
25 minutes, 6 seconds
the country into their own hands and create a new direction? You're listening to the world unpacked with John Baitman.
25 minutes, 12 seconds
Have you learned anything so far that intrigued or surprised you? Let me know in the comments or just give us a like.
25 minutes, 19 seconds
And if you want to hear more of my conversations with the world's most informed and interesting people, you can subscribe right here. Now back to the show.

Chapter 14: The 10% Rule

25 minutes, 28 seconds
It's a great question and we do know from history that even great revolutions uh largecale revolutions like Iran 1979
25 minutes, 36 seconds
often times it's not more than 10% of the population that takes part in those.
25 minutes, 41 seconds
Now when you have a nation of 90 million people and let's say the adult population is 70 million people that that's still a lot of people. But right
25 minutes, 50 seconds
now um the regime someone um who is kind of his family is part of the regime in
25 minutes, 59 seconds
2009 when there was large-scale protests inside Iran it was the green movement protest you know I once asked him I said
26 minutes, 6 seconds
how much support do you think the system has and he said you know what matters for a regime like Iran is not the
26 minutes, 14 seconds
breadth of your support it's the depth of your supporters so Even if we only have 15 20% then he kind of conceded as
26 minutes, 22 seconds
much. But they're the kinds of people who are willing to go out and kill and die for you. That's more valuable than
26 minutes, 29 seconds
80 85% who just post negative things about you on on social media. And the the dynamic of Iran is that you have a
26 minutes, 38 seconds
regime which again this could change in 48 hours but at the moment it's highly armed, organized, willing to kill to
26 minutes, 48 seconds
stay in power because they believe it's kill or be killed. And you have a society which is unarmed, unarmed,
26 minutes, 55 seconds
unorganized. And by virtue of the fact that this is a I would argue a largely secular society that's trying to
27 minutes, 3 seconds
separate mosque and state, not join in mos state, they're not the kinds of people who believe in in martyrdom, mass
27 minutes, 10 seconds
martyrdom. And so, um, if there were if people weren't being shot at and let's
27 minutes, 18 seconds
say I'll give you kind of, let's put a concrete hypothetical.
27 minutes, 22 seconds
If um, next week, one day, Iranians were allowed to assemble without fear of
27 minutes, 31 seconds
getting killed, I think tens of millions of people would show up. And that's what in some ways makes the fact that
27 minutes, 39 seconds
millions of people collectively took to the streets last January very significant for me because I've lived I
27 minutes, 46 seconds
you know I lived in that inside Iran for a couple years and people who've lived under these brutal dictatorships know
27 minutes, 54 seconds
that is it's a very scary environment when you you go outside and you see thousands of men carrying machine guns
28 minutes, 3 seconds
with their finger on the trigger. And so this is the current environment right now and uh with with the regime they
28 minutes, 10 seconds
feel it's kill or be killed and one of the um responsibilities and it's going to be a task. It's going to be difficult
28 minutes, 19 seconds
but for any effective opposition movement opposition organization leadership is peeling some of those
28 minutes, 27 seconds
folks away from the security forces and reassuring them that they're not going to be killed. They're not going to have the same role in Iran's tomorrow, but they can play a role in Iran's tomorrow.

Chapter 15: Security Forces Loyalty

28 minutes, 37 seconds
So, let's talk about the security forces. That's essential to any change in the Iranian regime. Uh the people
28 minutes, 45 seconds
with guns have to allow it or fight for it. Um, we've already talked about that small cadre of senior most Iranian
28 minutes, 53 seconds
leaders who have been deeply enriched and um, arandized in their position and
29 minutes, 1 second
are committed to the revolution whether for ideological or just financial and personal reasons. I I wonder what you
29 minutes, 8 seconds
make of the rest of the Iranian security forces, their military, their police
29 minutes, 15 seconds
forces, uh the jeandarm, uh the besiege militias, the morality police, the other types of men with guns that roam around.
29 minutes, 25 seconds
Um, I mean, when we saw these huge mass protests in January, I think one conclusion, a hopeful conclusion that many Westerners drew is there really is
29 minutes, 34 seconds
a deep ground swell of anti-regime sentiment. You might also draw um a more depressing conclusion, which is that
29 minutes, 42 seconds
people with guns are still willing to turn those guns on their brothers and sisters and massacre them by the thousands or tens of thousands.
29 minutes, 52 seconds
And that is absolutely right. And that's what we've seen in Iran in some ways.
29 minutes, 57 seconds
This mentality I was saying earlier of kill or be killed. It's it's become a self-fulfilling prophecy for them because of the fact they've killed so
30 minutes, 6 seconds
many people. The the rage and anger of society has made the gap between you
30 minutes, 15 seconds
know governed and and you know citizens and and and the regime irreconcilable.
30 minutes, 21 seconds
And now I have by both experience and anecdotally um I know that um I would
30 minutes, 30 seconds
even argue a majority of people in the system are no longer true believers. Um,
30 minutes, 35 seconds
I always quote a a friend of mine who was a longtime uh political science professor in Thran and he said at the
30 minutes, 43 seconds
beginning of the revolution the regime was composed of 80% idologues and 20% charlatans and now it's the reverse.
30 minutes, 52 seconds
There's only 20% who are kind of true believers and 80% their motivations are
30 minutes, 59 seconds
are financial political and those are the types of people that you can cut
31 minutes, 5 seconds
deals with. Um but those are not the people at the top of the pecking order right now.

Chapter 16: Iran’s Exiled Prince

31 minutes, 13 seconds
Let's talk about some of the other actors in and around Iran or outside of Iran that seem to represent some kind of
31 minutes, 22 seconds
oppositional faction or constituency of some kind. Um, first of all, Americans and others have been seeing the name of
31 minutes, 31 seconds
Reza Pavlavi a lot. Um, he is uh the deposed crown prince of Iran under the
31 minutes, 40 seconds
sha. Um he's been living in exile for many years and recently he's had this growing profile uh writing pieces in the
31 minutes, 48 seconds
New York Times, appearing on television and his claim to the world is that he represents an Iranian diaspora and
31 minutes, 57 seconds
indeed people inside the country um that want a different future. Uh who is this
32 minutes, 6 seconds
man? Who does he represent? And what ideas does he represent?
32 minutes, 11 seconds
So Resaphy, as you mentioned, was the son of the late Shaw. And when the monarchy was deposed in 1979, he had
32 minutes, 19 seconds
gone into exile. I think he was 18 years old. So he's essentially been living in exile for the last 47 years, most of it in now suburban Washington DC.
32 minutes, 31 seconds
And with the advent of satellite television and social media um you know
32 minutes, 38 seconds
the great scholar of Iran Abbas Milani said in the in the age of the internet diaspora communities become part of the civil society of their uh heritage
32 minutes, 47 seconds
countries. And so you know he has been able to be in daily communicado with Iranians for perhaps two decades now.
32 minutes, 56 seconds
And I think given how hopeless people feel uh in the Islamic Republic and
33 minutes, 5 seconds
people's um total lack of confidence that this is a regime which is capable of reforming um restock
33 minutes, 14 seconds
has has grown and grown over the last 1015 years and it's coincided with some of these satellite television networks
33 minutes, 22 seconds
that have created documentaries which have um you know produced kind of revisionist accounts of what the sha was
33 minutes, 31 seconds
like and what life was like under the sha. For decades, people read about the monarchy and their Islamic Republic
33 minutes, 39 seconds
textbooks is just these, you know, these evil uh characters. And because life under the Islamic Republic
33 minutes, 48 seconds
for most Iranians I would argue was um you know much more politically repressive,
33 minutes, 54 seconds
much more socially repressive. The Shaw wasn't socially repressive and just uh profoundly mismanaged economically.
34 minutes, 5 seconds
uh there's been a lot of nostalgia among um among those who and kind of a buyer's remorse among those who participated in
34 minutes, 13 seconds
the revolution. So the younger generation of Iranians now obviously they didn't experience life under the monarchy and that's what nostalgia does
34 minutes, 23 seconds
for you which is um you you see the photos of what life was like. Yeah. You hear the stories, you look at the currency, you know, your hear stories
34 minutes, 31 seconds
about with an Iranian passport, you could actually visit countries. You can't do that now. And so I describe it as kind of this forwardlooking nostalgia
34 minutes, 40 seconds
to make Iran great again. And Resa, I think, um, I think represents that that aspiration for for for many Iranians.

Chapter 17: Pahlavi’s Support

34 minutes, 52 seconds
Let me ask a bit more pointedly and I think from an American perspective. Um I'm of a generation that grew up around
35 minutes, 2 seconds
the time of the Iraq war. Uh there were many uh people in empower in the United States government who wanted that war.
35 minutes, 9 seconds
But also there was a group of Iraqi dissident living in exile um famously
35 minutes, 16 seconds
exemplified by Ahmed Shab Shalabi um who became Iraq whisperers to American
35 minutes, 23 seconds
politicians and policy makers and portrayed their version of what was happening in
35 minutes, 30 seconds
Iraqi society and how uh US troops would be greeted post Saddam um and their own
35 minutes, 37 seconds
personal stature in the country. So, as an American, I get my hackles up a little bit and I don't want to be led astray by another Ahmed Shalabi.
35 minutes, 48 seconds
What's the danger of that here? Um, is someone like Raza Palavi or other Iranian dissident in exile, whether they're democratic, secular, monarchist,
36 minutes, 1 second
are these people reliable sources of information? And are these people whom American policymakers should be relying on for any uh political planning?
36 minutes, 13 seconds
It's a fair point, John, and we know uh empirically that diaspora communities everywhere tend to have more radical
36 minutes, 21 seconds
politics than folks living inside the country because um you know there's no consequences often times for you. you
36 minutes, 29 seconds
you you can afford to be um more dogmatic uh and saying you know regime change now whereas people inside the
36 minutes, 36 seconds
country um often times have much more practical um dayto-day uh goals and are
36 minutes, 45 seconds
less dogmatic. Um in the case of the Iranian uh diaspora um I think that um
36 minutes, 54 seconds
you know when I was living in Thran I I haven't been there for two decades but even then
37 minutes
by virtue of the fact that politicians who are associated with the Islamic Republic were generally discredited and
37 minutes, 9 seconds
coupled with the fact that the regime is so brutal internally that individuals who are capable of playing kind of
37 minutes, 17 seconds
opposition leader roles. They're very effective at imprisoning, decapitating,
37 minutes, 22 seconds
sometimes killing those people. Um it's very difficult to be an opposition figure inside Iran. And so that is one
37 minutes, 31 seconds
reason why I think many people even I I would argue um this is this will be counterintuitive
37 minutes, 40 seconds
but I think that resi probably has a greater percentage support inside Iran
37 minutes, 47 seconds
than outside Iran. And the reason I say that is that um the large Iranian diaspora communities in the world, it's places like United States, Canada,
37 minutes, 58 seconds
Europe, and these are all democracies. And so people living in democracies,
38 minutes, 4 seconds
especially if you spent decades living in a democracy,
38 minutes, 8 seconds
you're not really thinking about the idea that, you know, your goal isn't isn't monarchy or even necessarily
38 minutes, 15 seconds
constitutional monarchy. Um whereas inside the country um people who haven't
38 minutes, 22 seconds
necessarily experienced living under democracy say would say listen um this regime is brutal. Um this country needs
38 minutes, 30 seconds
a strong leader and this is what we know. This this name has a brand. It has a legacy. Iran was ruled by a monarch
38 minutes, 38 seconds
for 2500 years uh before 1979. And let's go with what we know. M

Chapter 18: Trump Calls Kurds

38 minutes, 45 seconds
the other group that Americans are hearing more about in the last couple days are the Kurds.
38 minutes, 52 seconds
Um we've heard of the Kurds. Uh they are a group that lives in Iran, Iraq, other
39 minutes, 1 second
countries lack a state of their own and are often dispossessed and so they have become restive and somewhat militant in
39 minutes, 10 seconds
some of the countries in which they operate. I think many people outside of Iran may not even know that in the Iranian hinterlands, there has been a
39 minutes, 18 seconds
low-grade guerilla warfare that the Iranian regime has been fighting against Kurdish, Beluch, Arab, and other ethnic separatists for many, many years.
39 minutes, 30 seconds
They're back in the news because it's been reported that Donald Trump has been personally calling leaders of Kurdish militias, including those based in Iraq,
39 minutes, 40 seconds
um, and I think asking them to be prepared to
39 minutes, 46 seconds
be a ground force for some sort of ground assault deeper into Iranian territory. Uh, what do you make of this?
39 minutes, 55 seconds
uh what are these groups capable of?
39 minutes, 59 seconds
What are their goals in this situation and what would happen if they were armed and unleashed?
40 minutes, 5 seconds
So, I have great empathy for the Iranian Kurdish community. They're wonderful people who have disproportionately been
40 minutes, 14 seconds
repressed by this regime. Um Kurds uh are they have large populations and really four countries. um Iran,
40 minutes, 25 seconds
Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. But culturally,
40 minutes, 29 seconds
linguistically, historically, Kurds and Iranians are um there's a natural and deeper affinity there be than between,
40 minutes, 38 seconds
let's say, Kurds and Turks or Kurds and Arabs. And John, one of the most haunting images I've ever seen was in
40 minutes, 47 seconds
the very early days of the 1979 revolution, as you alluded to. There was a uh Kurdish uh uprising them. And there
40 minutes, 56 seconds
was um image that a photographer took of a firing squad uh of you know
41 minutes, 2 seconds
revolutionary guard soldiers killing uh uh Kurdish dissident at point blank
41 minutes, 9 seconds
range in a firing squad and the photogage won a Nobel I'm sorry this image won a puliter prize and the
41 minutes, 18 seconds
photographer was so fearful of uh his security his safety that it took three
41 minutes, 25 seconds
decades to publicly come out and accept this uh uh accept acknowledgement of this photo and so um that's a detour
41 minutes, 34 seconds
that you can you can cut if it's not not gerine to this but no we'll keep it and just to add in my own story you know I was an intelligence
41 minutes, 42 seconds
officer focused on Iran um learning about the country from my colleagues I didn't know that something new and um
41 minutes, 50 seconds
I remember the day when one of my colleagues referred to Kurdwacking season. This was his gallows humor to
41 minutes, 58 seconds
describe the ongoing cycles of violence and repression that had been targeted at these communities and these armed
42 minutes, 6 seconds
groups. Uh gave me a little bit of a window into the brutality of the Iranian regime and also for people who follow
42 minutes, 13 seconds
the Iranian regime, the the brutalization of their own mental space.
42 minutes, 17 seconds
But tell us about what would it mean for these groups to become actively involved in I guess it
42 minutes, 25 seconds
would become a fourpart conflict or even more because these groups are not necessarily internally uh united themselves.
42 minutes, 33 seconds
Yes. So I think the danger there and this is me coming at it from the perspective of someone who believes that
42 minutes, 42 seconds
it's in the in the interests of Iranian people but also in the US national
42 minutes, 49 seconds
interest for Iran to be a pluralistic representative democracy. Even though that may not be attainable right away, I
42 minutes, 57 seconds
think that would be in the US national interest. I I think that would be good for Iranians.
43 minutes, 2 seconds
And if you're starting to arm uh rebel Kurdish groups, that complicates that goal because Kurds constitute about 10%
43 minutes, 14 seconds
of Iran's population. And Iranians are very sensitive about the idea that great
43 minutes, 20 seconds
powers are are trying to fment kind of ethnic unrest in the hopes of fracturing
43 minutes, 27 seconds
the country. Uh this has long been a conspiracy theory among um Iranians,
43 minutes, 33 seconds
Iranian nationalists about great power machinations. And so there is a danger that if the United States start to uh
43 minutes, 42 seconds
arm and fund Kurdish groups that a lot of uh Iranians, non-Kurdish Iranians,
43 minutes, 48 seconds
Persians will say we're not signing up to that. You know, this is um um this is a red line for us. the territorial
43 minutes, 56 seconds
integrity of the country is a red line and um they will not be on on board with that and so it really undermines the
44 minutes, 5 seconds
opposition and so I I don't think that um you know the regimes like like Iran
44 minutes, 12 seconds
like Vladimir Putin they and they stay in power because they're able to divide and rule even if they only have 20% if
44 minutes, 21 seconds
that 20% remains united the 80% is divided they can continue to divide and rule. And in some ways um a strategy
44 minutes, 29 seconds
which is focused on arming Kurdish groups. It it kind of um it plays to the
44 minutes, 36 seconds
strengths of the regime of of dividing and ruling.

Chapter 19: Arming Kurdish Groups

44 minutes, 39 seconds
You could also say again it's shades of Iraq. Uh we had an authoritarian regime of a multithnic society was somehow able
44 minutes, 47 seconds
to keep that society together albeit through repression and discrimination in many cases.
44 minutes, 53 seconds
um we used the force of arms to create regime change and when that country fell
45 minutes, 1 second
apart into different factions it became worse than we had before. I will just say I will grant you all of that. And yet from Donald Trump's perspective,
45 minutes, 11 seconds
he wants to see how far he can take this, I think, without risking American
45 minutes, 18 seconds
lives. And he's looking for a ground force. And I think he thinks he may have found one. I will say I was surprised by the news that he was personally making these calls.
45 minutes, 28 seconds
Yeah, I was too. So let's just say he barrels forward and this is the ground force.
45 minutes, 35 seconds
How does that change the war?
45 minutes, 37 seconds
So, one of the questions I have is whether the template they're thinking about in their head is indeed Iraqi
45 minutes, 45 seconds
Kurdistan because as you know um we we set up no-fly zone in Iraqi Kurdistan
45 minutes, 52 seconds
basically giving the Iraqi Kurds uh autonomy to manage their own affairs and
46 minutes
um you know that um required um sustained US support over perhaps a couple decades.
46 minutes, 9 seconds
And I don't think that would be that exciting to someone like Trump just to say that his achievement was to carve out a Kurdistan um in a portion of, you
46 minutes, 18 seconds
know, the Iranian desert. Uh right. I mean, that doesn't that doesn't really seem to be doing much for someone like him.
46 minutes, 24 seconds
I agree. I think that um if he's going to go that far, the goal is for him probably going to be he he wants to be
46 minutes, 33 seconds
the one who who uh deposes uh this regime that's ruled for 47 years. I think I've seen Trump repost things on
46 minutes, 42 seconds
social media saying that he's going to be the American president that visits Caracus, Havana, and Tehran before he
46 minutes, 49 seconds
leaves office. I that is his selfimage and I think his mental self-image is the man who solves problems other presidents
46 minutes, 58 seconds
were unable and unwilling to solve that he's the man with with the guts and the hutbah and the strength to make it happen. So I think if he does this
47 minutes, 6 seconds
probably his hope is somehow these Kurds either march on tan under American and Israeli air cover. I have no idea
47 minutes, 14 seconds
whether that's feasible whatsoever. or maybe they somehow tie down the elements of the Iranian security forces um and and make other actions possible. I mean,
47 minutes, 25 seconds
does does any of this make sense?
47 minutes, 29 seconds
It's a in my view, it's playing with fire the potential risks of
47 minutes, 36 seconds
this being your chief political strategy. my view outweigh the benefits and including for Iranian Kurds
47 minutes, 45 seconds
themselves because um if indeed President Trump may decide two weeks from now um the Islamic Republic gives
47 minutes, 53 seconds
him an offer that he he likes he does a deal where are the Iranian Kurds going to be then um you know the revolutionary
48 minutes, 1 second
guards may come back and and inflict massive violence against them which they have done in the past and they'll
48 minutes, 9 seconds
they'll be holding the bag. So that is a scenario I worry about very much as well. I I I
48 minutes, 15 seconds
listen I I I think that um um I would I would love to see um as I said great empathy for the Kurds of Iran
48 minutes, 24 seconds
and they deserve much better than they do. Um but I I I I think that in a way
48 minutes, 32 seconds
um everyone will need to thrive together. I I don't see a scenario whereby um
48 minutes, 39 seconds
outside powers can can come and try to play. There was a famous quote from a Lebanese um historian called Kamal Kamal
48 minutes, 48 seconds
Salibbei and he said, you know, great powers should not be involved in the affairs of of small tribes. Um and
48 minutes, 55 seconds
there's some wisdom to that. The Kurds are not a small tribe, but in my view, we should be thinking big picture about,
49 minutes, 2 seconds
you know, how do we um help shepherd Iran to a better future? Um, and that
49 minutes, 8 seconds
should be at a macro level. And the way to do that, in my view, is not arming uh tribes.

Chapter 20: Iran’s War Strategy

49 minutes, 15 seconds
What is Iran's military strategy at this point? I mean, we know and you said they hope to survive. Uh they hope to keep
49 minutes, 22 seconds
the regime intact. uh they want this war to end on some level and uh what is their plan for doing that?
49 minutes, 32 seconds
I think their strategy is pretty clear and that is to they're not strong enough to meaningfully retaliate against
49 minutes, 40 seconds
America and Israel and so their strategy is to go after their neighbors in the
49 minutes, 46 seconds
Persian Gulf. Um they've they've gone after civilians. They've gone out,
49 minutes, 50 seconds
they've hit civilian uh buildings in places like the UAE and Saudi Arabia in even in Oman, their friend and Qatar. Um
49 minutes, 59 seconds
they want to spike the price of oil and the hopes that two things in my view.
50 minutes, 5 seconds
Number one, those countries who have close relationship was President Trump go to Trump and say end this war. Um
50 minutes, 12 seconds
this is doing real damage to us. And number two, one thing this regime has learned over the last four decades is
50 minutes, 19 seconds
that one of the best ways to restrain the Middle East ambitions of American presidents is to uh really uh negatively
50 minutes, 30 seconds
impact American public opinion. Um they learned this in the 1980s. There was uh it was one of the first acts that
50 minutes, 37 seconds
Lebanese Hezbollah did at Iran's direction was bombing u marine barracks in Beirut. And several months after
50 minutes, 45 seconds
that, Ronald Reagan pulled troops out of Lebanon because Americans were saying,
50 minutes, 50 seconds
"Well, why are our sons and daughters in this place anyway?" And so, um they recreated that strategy uh in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
51 minutes, 1 second
Um they made life uh hell uh with the improvised explosive devices, IEDs, and they wanted to just sabotage the
51 minutes, 9 seconds
American enterprise in Iraq. And I think now the hope is that um Americans turn on a television set these days and they see uh oil prices are spiking,
51 minutes, 21 seconds
people there's explosions happening,
51 minutes, 24 seconds
some American service members have been killed, and they start to ask their members of Congress, "What's going on here?" Um, we we why are we we were told
51 minutes, 33 seconds
we were not going to get involved in more wars in the Middle East?
51 minutes, 36 seconds
I'm not going to ask you to be a prognosticator of American politics, but I am curious what you think Iran can
51 minutes, 43 seconds
actually achieve across the sort of scoreboard that you've laid out here and and let me just make a case and get your reaction to it. All the Americans and
51 minutes, 52 seconds
Gulf and Israeli citizens that have been killed, it's very tragic. I have to say it's a lot less than I expected. Um,
52 minutes, 2 seconds
American service members, last time I checked, four, six, something like that.
52 minutes, 7 seconds
Um, I think Gulf citizens, Israelis that have been killed, I think it's in the dozens or scores per country. Um, Iran
52 minutes, 16 seconds
has a huge missile arsenal, thousands of missiles and rockets. I mean, people have talked for years about this fearsome retaliatory capacity.
52 minutes, 27 seconds
Oil prices have spiked. I will say that much. But where is it? I mean, am I am I wrong to
52 minutes, 34 seconds
have this impression that Iran really has not put a lot of points on the board at this point? I think that's accurate

Chapter 21: Limited Retaliation

52 minutes, 42 seconds
to say. Um it's a regime which is significantly outmatched obviously
52 minutes, 48 seconds
militarily by America and Israel and it's that's in my view a sign of weakness when you're having to lob
52 minutes, 57 seconds
missiles at hotels in in Dubai. One of the things I learned, John, when I was I did a fullbrite scholarship in um in
53 minutes, 5 seconds
Beirut two two decades ago, and my big takeaway from that year is that it takes decades to build things. It takes weeks
53 minutes, 14 seconds
to destroy them. And this Iranian regime, it really is in the business of destruction. Um its neighbors in the
53 minutes, 22 seconds
Gulf, I take my hat off to them. You know, I look at a country like United Arab Emirates. Um five decades ago the UAE and Iran went to the same elevator.
53 minutes, 32 seconds
She zed of the UAE pushed up pushed down and you see this enormous gap between Emirates was a backwater five decades ago.
53 minutes, 43 seconds
Yeah.
53 minutes, 43 seconds
And now it's this global hub of transport uh technology um finance and Iran is this pariah
53 minutes, 52 seconds
state. And so in a way it's kind of like um you there's a there's a it's there's a strategy there as I said they want
54 minutes
those countries to pressure America to stop. They want to spike the price of oil. But there's also this kind of resentment uh at what these countries have managed to achieve.
54 minutes, 11 seconds
How does this war end? Um it's a simple question. Um only takes a few words for me to voice it. Um it's probably not a
54 minutes, 20 seconds
simple answer. Uh but how does this war end?

Chapter 22: War End Scenarios

54 minutes, 26 seconds
So one of the reasons why it's difficult to answer that is that it I don't think it's clear in the president's head what
54 minutes, 34 seconds
his precise endgame is. And when he speaks to reporters he often times um suggests very different
54 minutes, 44 seconds
endgames. Sometimes it goes as far as uh different regime and uh regime implosion. Uh sometimes he'll take kind
54 minutes, 52 seconds
of the medium option which is the deli Rodriguez. Let's do a deal with the number two.
54 minutes, 57 seconds
And then sometimes it's like you know we may not even get um the political change we wanted but uh we've significantly
55 minutes, 5 seconds
degraded them and we couldn't call it a victory. I think that um um at the
55 minutes, 10 seconds
moment the Iranian strategy is let's um
55 minutes, 16 seconds
uh try to uh um you know continue to um wreak havoc in the hopes that the
55 minutes, 23 seconds
president will pull the plug and and and end hostilities. But if that if the president continues and Israel
55 minutes, 31 seconds
continues, if the US continues for weeks to come, at some point it it may force
55 minutes, 38 seconds
Thrron to make a a really important decision. that is um you know do we they're not going to use the word
55 minutes, 46 seconds
capitulate but do we agree to a pretty significant compromise
55 minutes, 52 seconds
or um do we continue fighting and risk that this regime may actually collapse?
55 minutes, 59 seconds
Um I think the advantage in some ways that the Islamic Republic has is that this isn't an ideological president.
56 minutes, 8 seconds
It's not George Bush wanting to bring democracy to Iraq. Um he doesn't really care um about whether or not you know
56 minutes, 17 seconds
this government in government in Iran is is democratic um or even you know very autocratic. As long as they kind of show
56 minutes, 26 seconds
deference to him and are prepared to make some compromises to him, I think he'll allow them to live another day.
56 minutes, 34 seconds
And if this war continues, they may soon have to um make that choice.
56 minutes, 42 seconds
Door number three you sketched out. Uh there's no regime change. There's no deal. Um but we can say that we degraded
56 minutes, 50 seconds
them and we can say that they're afraid of us and we'll if you try to get up to your shenanigans again with the nuclear program, the missile program, your regional proxies will come back again.
56 minutes, 59 seconds
Um in Israel this is called mowing the grass, right? Um it is a kind of eternal
57 minutes, 7 seconds
intermittent war. Um and I think part of the way Israel makes that work is there is actually something of a crosspartisan
57 minutes, 16 seconds
consensus in Israel to commit to the strategy from government to government across parties. It's a very hawkish security-minded society. I I wonder if
57 minutes, 26 seconds
America has it within us to adopt a mowing the grass strategy that to work
57 minutes, 32 seconds
would need to outlast Trump. It would need to outlast the GOP. Um it would need to be something that presidents and
57 minutes, 39 seconds
the American people generally sign up for. What do you think?
57 minutes, 44 seconds
I'm skeptical of that, John. When I look at the public polling, I mean, we're now living in the aftermath of a quarter
57 minutes, 51 seconds
century of American failures in the Middle East and it doesn't seem to me in either party there's much appetite for continuing to to to mow the lawn. Now,
58 minutes, 3 seconds
Israel is in a different context and that they're within reach of Iranian missiles and they may choose to continue to do that. But there's also the
58 minutes, 11 seconds
question of, you know, a next American president. Let's say it's a Democratic American president or let's say it's even JD Vance whose foreign policy
58 minutes, 19 seconds
instincts are different than those of Donald Trump. Will they continue to give Israel that green light and indulge Israel to mow the lawn in Iran? Or will
58 minutes, 28 seconds
they say, "Listen, um we we we don't want any more regional wars. Just just
58 minutes, 34 seconds
lay off." um the the history of our you know our history America's history with
58 minutes, 41 seconds
Saddam Hussein is is um you is not a good example right because um that's what happened with Saddam he um you know
58 minutes, 51 seconds
after the Gulf War um initially we incited uh George HW Bush told the Iraqis to rise up against Saddam uh
58 minutes, 59 seconds
Saddam uh slaughtered them and he continued to rule with an iron fist for um if my math is correct is another
59 minutes, 8 seconds
another decade um or more and then you know we decided to take military action and so in my view this would be a failed
59 minutes, 17 seconds
outcome if after all of this you have an even more brutal regime in Iran which
59 minutes, 26 seconds
continues to maintain its nuclear ambitions and missile ambitions and it
59 minutes, 32 seconds
requires um constant military action every six months to to to prevent them from doing so.

Chapter 23: “Mow the Grass”

59 minutes, 40 seconds
Kareem, I'm so grateful for your time today. Um I know that you're a very busy man right now. Um it strikes me that
59 minutes, 48 seconds
after 47 years of cold war or what the Iranians sometimes call soft war with the West, it's still a country that we
59 minutes, 57 seconds
as Westerners do not know. Well, um I was just thinking on my drive this morning about how Kami was one of the
1 hour, 5 seconds
few major global leaders whom Americans infrequently refer to by his name. They often would say the Ayatollah or the
1 hour, 14 seconds
Supreme Leader. I think partially because it's hard to pronounce. He's readily confused with his predecessor who had a very similar name. But it
1 hour, 22 seconds
seemed like something of a metaphor for the continued kind of alien nature of Iran to Americans. the lack of good understanding and people-to-people ties.
1 hour, 32 seconds
Um, we are so reliant on a very very small number of people like you who can
1 hour, 39 seconds
continue to illuminate this closed and frankly mysterious society. Any final words before we go?
1 hour, 46 seconds
Well, thank you for saying that. I I feel um, you know, as someone who the last time I was in Iran, I was nearly imprisoned. So, I haven't been back
1 hour, 54 seconds
since then. And um it is sad that this country which has such um you know
1 hour, 1 minute, 3 seconds
enormous uh human resources, human capital, uh great natural resources,
1 hour, 1 minute, 9 seconds
this very rich history is in the state that it's in and it's an unnatural state both for Iranians and for Americans. So,
1 hour, 1 minute, 19 seconds
um I I I do believe that this is um kind of an uh historic anomaly and my hope is
1 hour, 1 minute, 27 seconds
that, you know, both for Iranian interests and and Americans that this chapter soon ends. But, you know, I've
1 hour, 1 minute, 36 seconds
I've learned over the years um in covering Iran and and the Middle East that um you know, not to conflate my my
1 hour, 1 minute, 44 seconds
my hopes and my analysis, but um you know, I I am um uh I am confident that
1 hour, 1 minute, 52 seconds
this is a society which is ripe for um accountable representative government.
1 hour, 2 minutes
And so in that sense, you know, you I see this light at the end of the tunnel.
1 hour, 2 minutes, 6 seconds
The issue is, you know, there's not a tunnel at the moment.

Chapter 24: Iran’s Future

1 hour, 2 minutes, 11 seconds
We're grateful for your analysis and I share your hope, Kareem. Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you so much for having me, John.
1 hour, 2 minutes, 21 seconds
You've been listening to the World Unpacked, a production of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. To get episodes delivered directly to your
1 hour, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
inbox, use the link in the description or subscribe on YouTube or popular podcast platforms like Spotify or
1 hour, 2 minutes, 36 seconds
iTunes. Views expressed are those of the host and guests and not necessarily those of Carnegie. Learn more at carnegieendowment.org.
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