Critical Threats and ISW
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Iran Update, August 15, 2025
Key Takeaways
• PMF Dissolution: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi published a statement on August 15 in which he called for strengthening Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, likely in response to recent US efforts to weaken the Axis of Resistance. Hamidawi underlined the necessity of “supporting” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias with advanced weapons, enhanced technical capabilities, and improved “defensive and destructive capacities.”
• Iran-Houthi Relations: Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati emphasized Iranian support for the Houthis during a meeting with the Houthi representative to Iran on August 14. Velayati denied that the Axis of Resistance has weakened and underlined the Houthis' pivotal role in the Axis of Resistance’s war against Israel in a meeting with Houthi Representative to Iran Ibrahim al Dailami.
• Hezbollah Disarmament: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem threatened to incite anti-government protests in Lebanon if the Lebanese government attempts to disarm Hezbollah during a speech on August 15. Qassem reiterated that Hezbollah will not surrender its weapons until Israel halts its operations and withdraws from southern Lebanon.
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Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah Secretary General Abu Hussein al Hamidawi published a statement on August 15 in which he called for strengthening Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, likely in response to recent US efforts to weaken the Axis of Resistance. Hamidawi underlined the necessity of “supporting” Iranian-backed Iraqi militias with advanced weapons, enhanced technical capabilities, and improved “defensive and destructive capacities.” Hamidawi’s statement comes as the United States pursues various lines of effort to weaken Iran and its Axis of Resistance. The Lebanese government agreed on August 7 to a US proposal to disarm Hezbollah. The United States has also pressured the Iraqi government to dissolve the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which is an Iraqi state security service that includes a large number of Iranian-backed militias. State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki emphasized the importance of the PMF’s existence in the face of US and Israeli efforts to disarm Hezbollah in a phone call with Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati on August 8. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba separately warned the United States on August 14 against “taking steps against Iraq,” referring to US pressure to dissolve the PMF.
Hamidawi was presumably asking both Iran and the Iraqi federal government to provide Kataib Hezbollah with advanced weapons and technical capabilities. Iran has historically provided Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, with weapons and training. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani reportedly told PMF leaders to pressure the Iraqi government for funding to modernize their weapons systems during his July 28 visit to Baghdad.
Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati emphasized Iranian support for the Houthis during a meeting with the Houthi representative to Iran on August 14. Velayati denied that the Axis of Resistance has weakened and underlined the Houthis' pivotal role in the Axis of Resistance’s war against Israel in a meeting with Houthi Representative to Iran Ibrahim al Dailami. The Houthis are the only Axis of Resistance member that still regularly conducts attacks targeting Israel. The Houthis also continue to threaten international shipping. Velayati separately criticized US pressure to disarm Lebanese Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. This meeting comes after Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani reaffirmed Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance during his visits to Iraq and Lebanon between August 11 and 14.
Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem threatened to incite anti-government protests in Lebanon if the Lebanese government attempts to disarm Hezbollah during a speech on August 15. Qassem claimed that the Lebanese government is carrying out an “American-Israeli order” to disarm Hezbollah “even if it leads to civil war and internal strife.” The Lebanese government agreed on August 7 to the objectives of US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack’s proposal to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah mobilized some protestors on August 8 after the Lebanese government approved the US proposal. These protests did not gain traction or expand beyond Hezbollah support zones, however. Qassem stated that Hezbollah is prepared for confrontation and will incite protests if “confrontation is imposed on Hezbollah.“
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Hezbollah-affiliated officials have recently taken steps to try to prevent clashes between the LAF and Hezbollah during the disarmament process. The disarmament proposal tasks the LAF with disarming Hezbollah. LAF Commander Brigadier General Rodolphe Haykal and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have discussed ways to prevent any confrontation between the LAF and Hezbollah during the disarmament process. Berri is Hezbollah’s highest-ranking ally in the Lebanese government and is currently mediating between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah to resolve outstanding issues.
Qassem also reiterated that Hezbollah will not surrender its weapons until Israel halts its operations and withdraws from southern Lebanon. Qassem called on the Lebanese government to hold a meeting to plan to “confront” Israel and added that Hezbollah will confront "the Israeli-American project no matter the cost.”. Hezbollah has long used continued Israeli operations and the 1989 Taif Agreement, which called for the disarmament of all Lebanese militias except Hezbollah, to justify retaining its weapons. Hezbollah will likely continue to use Israeli operations in Lebanon and the Taif Agreement to reject the government’s decision to disarm the group. Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm will likely complicate the Lebanese government and the LAF’s ability to implement the disarmament plan.
Several Lebanese officials rejected Qassem’s statements on August 15. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam criticized Qassem’s speech for containing “a veiled threat of civil war.” Salam rejected Qassem’s claims that the Lebanese government is implementing an “American-Israeli project,” stating that the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah was “purely Lebanese.” Anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar similarly stated that the Lebanese government had been working on a plan to disarm Hezbollah prior to US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack’s presentation of the US proposal to the Lebanese government in June 2025. Nassar added that the issue of the state’s monopoly on arms is “not open to debate.”
The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants.
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