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New Turkish-Libyan Deal Sparks Regional Backlash
By Cyril Widdershoven - Jul 03, 2025, 11:00 AM CDT
Turkey’s new maritime deal with Libya and its push for EEZ claims have escalated tensions with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel, all of whom back Athens’ position.
Ankara’s offshore moves in Libya, possible naval deployments, and looming votes in Libya’s parliament raise fears of military or diplomatic confrontation.
Secret Turkish-Syrian EEZ talks could further isolate Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt while threatening joint East Med energy ventures.
Syria radar
The relatively quiet East Mediterranean appears to be boiling again, following the signing of a new agreement by Turkey and Libya on the delineation of their maritime borders. Ankara is once again pushing East Mediterranean littoral states—Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt—toward confrontation by asserting longstanding claims over the Economic Exclusive Zones (EEZ) of Athens, Nicosia, and Cairo. Ankara is now actively fueling the fire.
In June 2025, Turkey raised tensions by submitting a new maritime map to UNESCO, challenging Greek authority over territorial waters and airspace in the Aegean. Simultaneously, it reiterated its opposition to Greece’s internationally recognized 12-nautical-mile zone, insisting on only six nautical miles. Ankara considers the Greek stance a violation of its national rights and a potential casus belli.
Turkey also continues to support the Turkish Cypriot government, stemming from its 1974 invasion of Cyprus. The latest friction concerns Ankara’s hydrocarbon exploration in contested Turkish Cypriot waters. Some sources claim Turkey is preparing military maneuvers to challenge Greek claims in the Aegean and East Med. While Athens and Ankara have held diplomatic talks, progress has been limited. In May 2025, Greek PM Mitsotakis stated that Ankara must withdraw its 1995 casus belli to participate in new EU defense funding mechanisms.
Turkey has also deepened its offshore involvement in Libya, eyeing oil and gas operations in contested maritime zones under the 2019 Turkey-Libya memorandum. A new MoU signed in October 2022 between Ankara and Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Unity (GNU) grants Turkey exploration rights in Libyan waters. Discussions with Libya’s eastern government, led by General Haftar, are ongoing, raising pressure across the region.
Ankara insists the 2019 MoU is legal and warns of diplomatic or military repercussions if Turkish East Med claims are challenged. Greece has declared the MoU invalid and is engaging Libya directly. Libya’s House of Representatives plans to vote on the agreement soon. Greek naval presence off Libya is being considered.
Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus support Greece’s position, fearing Turkey’s expanding influence. Cairo has called on Washington to pressure Haftar’s parliament to block the MoU. Concerns are mounting over potential impacts on offshore investments and security in Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, and Israel.
Meanwhile, reports have surfaced of secret Turkey-Syria talks to define new EEZ boundaries post-Assad. A leaked letter from Turkish FM Hakan Fidan confirms coordination is underway for a maritime agreement with Syria, further cementing Turkish claims tied to Northern Cyprus.
A Syrian-Turkish deal would harm the interests of Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, bolstering Turkey’s maximalist maritime ambitions. It may also jeopardize the East Med Gas Forum’s collaborative energy efforts, potentially shifting regional energy dynamics and increasing geopolitical risk. While open conflict is not desired, it can no longer be ruled out.
By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com
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