National Security Journal The Treaty Why a Ceasefire in Gaza Won’t End Israel’s Nightmare Seth Frantzman By Seth Frantzman Published 21 hours ago

 National Security Journal

The Treaty

Why a Ceasefire in Gaza Won’t End Israel’s Nightmare

Seth Frantzman

By  Seth Frantzman  Published  21 hours ago

Key Points and Summary – Even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump in Washington on July 7 to discuss a potential 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, the complex, multi-front war Israel faces continues to rage.

-On the same day as the meeting, five Israeli soldiers were killed in a Hamas ambush in northern Gaza, a region the IDF has repeatedly cleared.

-The following day, Iran-backed Houthi rebels sank a cargo ship in the Red Sea, and Israel carried out strikes against a Hezbollah operative in Lebanon and an IRGC-backed group in Syria, underscoring the immense difficulty of achieving lasting peace.

As Israel and US Talk Peace, Hamas and Houthis Escalate Attacks

Israel’s war in Gaza has grinded on for more than 20 months. There are still around fifty hostages in Gaza. Israel believes approximately twenty of them are still alive. Israel still wants to defeat Hamas.

However, the Trump administration has indicated it would like to see a sixty-day ceasefire and a possible end to the war. Can Israel end the war while also achieving its objectives? Getting the hostages back is one goal. However, it’s unclear if Hamas will ever return all the people it kidnapped on October 7, 2023.

Oval Office Meeting

Israel’s Prime Minister flew to Washington to meet with US President Donald Trump on July 7. This was an important meeting. It is also the third meeting the two leaders have had since Trump came to office in January. Netanyahu met the American leader in January and again in April.

Each meeting has brought its own twists. The January meeting followed Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, who had secured a ceasefire the day before the inauguration. Trump appeared to support a reconstruction plan for Gaza in January. He also floated relocating Gazans while the Gaza Strip is rebuilt.

By April, things had changed. Trump was pushing tariffs, and Netanyahu ostensibly flew to Washington to make sure Israel was not slapped with heavy tariffs. However, it now appears that the meeting foreshadowed possible Israeli escalation with Iran.

Israel held off on attacking Iran until June, while the US attempted to get a deal with Tehran. When Tehran stalled, Israel carried out a surprise attack in mid-June. Twelve days later, after the US carried out a round of strikes on Iran, Trump secured a ceasefire.

Now it is July, and Trump has spoken about a new Gaza ceasefire. Trump’s doctrine when it comes to these kinds of deals tends to follow a model. Trump will float a deal and then attempt to persuade both sides to agree. However, this time it’s unclear if Israel and Hamas can bridge the gaps between what both sides want. Hamas wants the war to end, and it wants to drag out a deal, holding onto hostages and only releasing them slowly.

Israel’s official position is that the hostages must all be returned. In addition, Hamas’ military and governance capabilities must be defeated. There is increased talk among Israeli officials about removing Hamas from power. “Our intention is that Hamas will no longer rule there. We will do what is necessary to make that happen,” Netanyahu said in Washington. Israeli officials have floated this “no more Hamas” concept since the days after October 7. However, Hamas continues to survive in Gaza.

On July 7, as Netanyahu was in Washington, Hamas placed improvised explosive devices in the Gaza town of Beit Hanoun. They waited for Israeli infantry to pass the area and then detonated the explosives.

Then they ambushed the soldiers, killing five and wounding a dozen. Beit Hanoun is near the border with Israel. It has been cleared by the IDF many times since the beginning of the war. Nevertheless, the terrorists have been able to re-infiltrate.

On the Ground

The attack in Beit Hanoun is not Israel’s only problem. The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have also begun attacking ships again. On July 8, the Houthis published video and images of their attack on the MV Magic Seas, a cargo ship in the Red Sea. The Houthis attacked the vessel with small skiffs and kamikaze drones. The video they published also shows them taking control of the vessel, then blowing it up and sinking it. Israel has carried out a new round of airstrikes on the Houthis. However, the renewed attacks on ships show the group is not deterred.

In addition, Israel carried out a strike on a Hezbollah member in Lebanon on July 8. The Israel Defense Forces said that Israeli aircraft, “guided by IDF intelligence, struck and eliminated the terrorist Mehran Mustafa Ba‘jur in the area of Tripoli in Lebanon.” The IDF said that he had been responsible for directing attacks on Israel. In Syria, the IDF also carried out a raid near the border. In the raid, the IDF said it had apprehended a group backed by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

This continued aggression shows that Israel continues to fight on multiple fronts. A ceasefire in Gaza could reduce some tensions on these fronts. However, a truce in Gaza is not a magic wand to end all the crises in the Middle East. Israel-Iran tensions continue to smolder. Israel’s attack on Iran has brushed aside a taboo that existed. In the past, the two countries fought in the shadows.

Now there is direct confrontation. Trump’s policy is to push for ceasefires and deals. However, there are many challenges to surmount. In Lebanon, for instance, Trump’s envoy, Ambassador Tom Barrack, recently visited to try to address the continued role of Hezbollah.

US partners and allies in the Gulf, such as the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, want to see tensions reduced in the region. It’s unclear if the Trump-Netanyahu meetings in Washington can thread the needle to bring more ceasefires and peace deals in the region.

About the Author: Seth Frantzman 

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a Senior Middle East Analyst for The Jerusalem Post. Seth is now a National Security Journal Contributing Editor.