NATIONAL SECURITY JOURNAL
Ukraine War
Russia Could Lose: Putin Has No Way Out of The Ukraine War
Alexander Motyl
ByAlexander Motyl Published1 day ago (June 5, 2025)
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is in a pickle. And the Ukrainian Security Service put him there by launching a spectacular drone attack against several military airports and possibly destroying or damaging 41 planes.
Regardless of the tactical or strategic importance of the strikes and their implications for warfare, the Ukrainian attack is a personal and political embarrassment for Putin.
Putin’s Ukraine War Pandora’s Box He Can’t Close
On the one hand, the brazenness of the attack undermines Putin’s legitimacy as Russia’s omniscient and omnipotent leader.
Who, but an incompetent, would permit such a disaster to happen on his watch?
On the other hand, the attack underscores the rottenness of Putin’s political and military systems.
The Ukrainians smuggled in over 100 drones, placed them in trucks driven by Russians who appear not to have known what they were transporting, and directed the whole operation from a site near a local Russian Security Service headquarters.
Clearly, a vast array of Russian officials weren’t doing their jobs.
How Will Putin Respond to the Drone Attack?
Putin now faces several difficult choices.
He could do and say nothing, as he did in the immediate aftermath of the strikes.
The Russian media were exceptionally reticent in their reporting, which may be indicative of a stunned confusion or of a deliberate strategy, well-known to Russians since the days of Potemkin Villages, of pretending that all is well even in the worst of times.
Russia’s xenophobic bloggers know better, and have expressed outrage, but their audience is limited and Putin could probably get away with pretending that nothing really happened.
Except, of course, that Russia’s political, security, and economic elites—in other words, the people who matter—know better. They know that Putin and his system have failed and that he knows he’s got to do something to reestablish his authority.
But what? And when?
Some unhinged Russians have called for retaliation with nuclear weapons, but even Putin knows that would immediately transform Russia into a pariah.
A large-scale attack against Ukrainian cities and civilians would be doable, but the problem is that it’s been done many times before and would rather be interpreted as a sign, not of strength, but of weakness.
MORE: Putin Could Test Tactical Nuke In Response to Drone Strike
That leaves targeting some Ukrainian military installations, but figuring out how to overcome their defenses could take time.
Putin Has Even More Problems
And this leads to Putin’s other challenge. Ideally, he should have retaliated immediately after the strike—but he didn’t. If he waits too long, he risks alienating Russian elites. If he hurries, he risks doing something stupid that could end in a military embarrassment and loss of face.
Putin’s pickle is Russia’s pickle. The Ukrainian attack demonstrated that Ukraine is far from defeated and that Mother Russia may be on the slippery slope to disaster.
Her son, Putin, started the war. She may end it by losing.
About the Author: Dr. Alexander Motyl
Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, including Pidsumky imperii (2009); Puti imperii (2004); Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires (2001); Revolutions, Nations, Empires: Conceptual Limits and Theoretical Possibilities (1999); Dilemmas of Independence: Ukraine after Totalitarianism (1993); and The Turn to the Right: The Ideological Origins and Development of Ukrainian Nationalism, 1919–1929 (1980); the editor of 15 volumes, including The Encyclopedia of Nationalism (2000) and The Holodomor Reader (2012); and a contributor of dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines. He also has a weekly blog, “Ukraine’s Orange Blues.”
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