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GZero Daily Newsletter
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Dear Önder,
Hi there, welcome to Friday.
In today’s edition:
Israel-Hamas ceasefire gets back on track
Poland says its facing a new kind of war
US cracks down on Sudanese leader
UK makes record drug busts
Plus: Our weekly news quiz
And ... a new episode of Puppet Regime.
Enjoy, thanks for reading,
– The Daily crew
What We’re Watching: Sealing the ceasefire deal, Poland vs. Russian disinformation, US sanctions for Sudanese general, Why Greenland?
Israeli cabinet meets to vote on Gaza ceasefire
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed today that a Gaza ceasefire deal has been finalized following a “last-minute crisis” and that the security cabinet is now meeting to ratify the agreement. Israeli warplanes, meanwhile, carried out dozens of missions in the Gaza Strip on Thursday that left at least 86 dead and dampened the jubilation many Palestinians felt when the ceasefire agreement was first announced.
What was the holdup? Two disagreements with Hamas supposedly caused the delay: One over the precise locations from which Israeli troops would withdraw and another over the identities of hostages due to be exchanged.
Hardliners in the cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, are expected to vote against the ceasefire but look unlikely to be able to stop it. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday he still expects the fighting to stop as scheduled on Sunday. On Friday, the names of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase were published, and the prime minister's office said they could begin being freed as early as Sunday.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
The putative second and third phases of the ceasefire deal will need to be hashed out while the first is in progress, and the Israeli far right is eager to return to fighting. Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign if the deal goes through, and Smotrich has said he will withdraw if the ceasefire continues beyond the first phase. If they both leave, this could risk the collapse of Netanyahu's government.
“At the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, Netanyahu could face a dilemma in which he is forced to choose between holding his coalition together or maintaining the ceasefire to get more hostages released,” says Farzan Sabet, a Middle East consultant at Eurasia Group. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader would be “under pressure from much of the rest of the Israeli opposition and the public as well as incoming US President Donald Trump.”
How is the wider world reacting? Russia and China’s foreign ministries expressed hope that the ceasefire deal would lead to long-term peace, while British PM Keir Starmer described the deal as “very welcome.” Japan and South Korea both urged a swift implementation of the deal as well, while France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz specifically urged Hamas to release hostages.
Poland sounds the Russia cyber alarm
Poland’s Krzysztof Gawkowski, deputy premier in charge of digital affairs, warned this week that Russia is waging a “cyberwar” against his country. Poland, he said, was “the most frequently attacked country in Europe” by Russia’s spy services. That’s not surprising, given the long history of Russian-Polish enmity, but there are plenty of other governments that share Poland’s indignation.
Georgia, a former Soviet republic that’s now independent, has faced political crisis and social unrest over claims that Russia is manipulating its politics. Romania was forced to void an election result and rerun the vote late last year on similar charges of Russian meddling.
The charge isn’t new. Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2004-05) began in response to an election result that protesters asserted had been determined by Vladimir Putin. And the charges of Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential race made headlines, though there was no evidence the Russians were successful enough to determine the outcome.
Today, Europeans are particularly on edge, because new elections are coming in both Germany and the Czech Republic. Russia has suffered more than 700,000 casualties in Ukraine, according to US officials. Its ability to wage conventional war has sustained enormous damage. All the more reason, European officials fear, for Russia to use cyber strikes and sabotage attacks to pressure their governments to cut their backing for Ukraine.
US sanctions Sudanese leader
The United States on Thursday imposed financial sanctions on Sudan's army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The move came a week after Washington imposed similar sanctions on the leader of the rebel Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, whose militia has been warring with government forces for the past 18 months, in a conflict that has killed up to 150,000 people, displaced 11 million, and caused 26 million to go hungry.
Why sanction both sides? US officials said Thursday that the Sudanese army deployed chemical weapons against the RSF at least twice, and there are concerns they may use them in populated areas in the capital, Khartoum. They have also committed humanitarian violations and used starvation as a weapon of war.
As for the RSF, on Jan. 7, Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused the group of perpetrating a genocide against the non-Arab Masalit people, killing boys and men and committing sexual violence against women and girls because of their ethnicity.
Washington doesn’t want to pick sides but to pressure them into a ceasefire. The RSF currently controls half of Sudan, including almost all of Darfur, Khartoum, and southern regions, and there are concerns that a partition of the country would lead to “state disintegration,” provoking an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.
Three reasons why Trump wants Greenland
Donald Trump wants Greenland. The vast, sparsely populated Arctic island has been under Danish control for 300 years, but back in 2019, when he was last president, Trump floated the idea of buying it. He recently reiterated that, and even refused to rule out using force to get what he wants.
Why would Trump want Greenland?
First, it’s a huge piece of the Arctic, where international competition with Russia and China for control over shipping routes and deepwater mining is heating up as the ice caps melt.
Second, it’s rich in rare earths, which are critical for manufacturing advanced batteries and other electronics. China currently controls 80% of the world’s rare earths supply. Getting Greenland could change that.
Third, it has massive geothermal energy potential. That could provide virtually limitless clean energy for the energy-hungry AI revolution.
Greenland and Denmark both say the island is “not for sale.” But they’ve also shown interest in deeper economic and defense cooperation with the US, which has had bases in Greenland since World War II. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen held a 45-minute call with Trump this week.
Meanwhile, polls show support for independence from Denmark is high. Denmark says it will respect whatever the Greenlanders decide on that front and that Trump should do the same.
Greenland's red flags. Despite the famously cheerful colors of their houses and the breathtaking beauty of Greenland's nature, the island's roughly 50,000 people struggle with a number of economic and social challenges. Skilled labor is in short supply, and inflation is high. The government and the fishing industry are by far the two largest employers. The population is shrinking as people emigrate. Suicide rates are routinely the highest in the world.
If the Trump administration showed up with a significant promise of greenbacks for Greenland, both sides could benefit.
What could happen? Greenland could vote for independence in the near future. If so, the US will press firmly for a preferential bilateral agreement. The big question then would be whether Trump pushes further, trying to secure more direct control. If so, would other interested global powers (looking at you Russia and China) try to stop that?
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Conflicts and tariffs and Trump, oh my! Davos 2025 begins
It’s Davos time again. The 55th annual World Economic Forum begins Monday in the Swiss Alps just hours before US President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office on Capitol Hill.
This gathering of 3,000 top leaders from 130 countries, including more than 60 heads of state and hundreds of CEOs, begins at one of the most geopolitically fraught moments the world has seen since before the WEF was founded.
GZERO’s very own Tony Maciulis will be on the ground in Davos all next week. To set the scene, he spoke with Matthew Blake, a member of the Forum’s executive committee who also leads its Center for Financial and Monetary Systems, for a preview of what to expect as the event begins at a time of intense fragmentation.
This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.
Tony Maciulis: Let’s start by unpacking this year’s theme for WEF 2025, “A Call for Collaboration in the Intelligent Age.” By your own measure, based on the Forum’s index, global cooperation is receding on issues from peace and security to trade and financial policy. What impact is that having on global growth?
Matthew Blake: I think we are living in interesting times, and I think the premise of the past that working together across a number of issues yields a significant fruit holds. [But] there's a lot of circumspection and reflection on that particular premise nonetheless, in this environment, for a platform like ours.
We're all about bringing people together across industries, the political and official class, NGOs and academics, innovators, large companies. And we're trying to bridge those gaps around critical challenges. Despite a world that's becoming more confused and trickier to navigate, there are some major issues out there that require collective action to solve. How do you maximize the potential of artificial intelligence and govern it appropriately? Here in the States, I know you are monitoring what's going on in Los Angeles. These climate-related events are becoming more significant. We as a species, as humanity, have to address that effectively.
Fundamentally, we need people to come together around common issues to make sure that those bridges remain intact, and that's the essence of what our organization does.
What does Blake think of Trump’s planned appearance at the Forum? For the full interview, click here.
__________
Follow GZERO’s coverage of the 55th World Economic Forum throughout the week in our newsletters and across our social media channels. Join us for a special Global Stage event from Davos on Wednesday, Jan. 22, featuring Ian Bremmer, Microsoft’s Vice Chair and President Brad Smith, the World Trade Organization’s Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and other leading voices. Details here.
Putin makes a stunning accusation at Trump
Putin doesn’t like that Trump is copying his style. So he does what anyone would do: invades Canada. What happens when the world’s two largest land masses unite? Find out on the latest Puppet Regime.
You vs. the News: GZERO's Weekly News Quiz, Jan. 17, 2025
Have you stayed atop GZERO’s news coverage this week? Here's your chance to prove it.
Hard Numbers: BP cuts thousands of jobs, UK drug seizures soar, Astronauts take a hike, Nigeria kills dozens of jihadists
5: Energy giant BP announced Thursday it would cut 4,700 employees and 3,000 contractors, a total of more than 5% of its global workforce. The move is part of a broader strategy that aims to bring down costs by $2 billion over the next two years.
3.66 billion: Drugs is big business, innit. In the year ending March 2024, UK authorities seized a record 119 tons of illegal narcotics, with a street value of $3.66 billion. About two-thirds of the haul was cannabis, and a fifth was cocaine. Elsewhere in Europe, drug interdictions have also surged – a massive Interpol operation last spring led to the seizure of more than 600 tons of narcotics or precursor chemicals. The UN says cocaine consumption in European cities has risen 80% since 2011.
7: If you’ve got cabin fever, go for a walk – if you’ve got space station fever, go for a spacewalk! That’s what US astronaut Suni Williams did Thursday, stepping out of the International Space Station for the first time since arriving more than seven months ago. Williams and her colleague Butch Wilmore were supposed to be at the station for only a week, but spacecraft trouble has kept them stranded in space, where they’ll likely remain until April or May.
76: In recent weeks, Nigerian forces have killed 76 jihadists in the country’s northeastern state of Borno. The militants belonged either to Boko Haram or to Islamic State West Africa, whose jihadist insurgency against the Nigerian government has displaced more than 2 million people and killed as many as 30,000 since it began in 2009. Growing violence and extremism in the Sahel region (which includes Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad) remains one of Africa’s biggest security challenges.
This edition of GZERO was produced by Writers Riley Callanan, Matthew Kendrick, Alex Kliment, Willis Sparks, Tasha Kheiriddin, and Managing Editor Tracy Moran.
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