Önder Özar Diplomasi Sevgisi: BROOKINGS Commentary Are the very rich taking over American politics? Elaine Kamarck and Jordan Muchnick January 9, 2025

BROOKINGS

Commentary

Are the very rich taking over American politics?

Elaine Kamarck and Jordan Muchnick

January 9, 2025

Altogether, across four election cycles from 2018 to 2024 there were 183 candidates who contributed more than $1 million of personal money to their campaigns.

Republicans constituted 68% of all candidates contributing more than a million to their campaigns.

Most rich people who spend personal money on campaigns lose.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk watch the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024. Brandon Bell/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

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The richest man in the world now sits close to the President elect and uses his powerful social media platform, X, to opine on everything from daylight savings time to visas for skilled workers. As the new administration takes shape, the number of multi-millionaires and billionaires moving to Washington grows. While this is good for Washington area real estate agents, is it good for democracy? Will someone who earns $14 million per day be able to appreciate how important $1,976.00 (the average monthly social security payment) is to millions of Americans?

We are right to worry about the uber-rich having too much influence. It is therefore important to look at whether those who are actually elected and thus the final decision makers have lives that are closer to the average American. One way to look at this is to track the number of people who have run for office and who have made significant contributions to their campaigns out of their own pockets. To do this we used data collected by OpenSecrets to count every presidential, congressional, and senate candidate in a primary or general election who contributed $1 million or more to their campaigns from their personal funds in the years 2018 to 2024. Only a very small fraction of Americans can give this much money to a campaign; especially given that the average net worth of an American is $1,063,700.

Here’s what we found:

Altogether across four election cycles from 2018 to 2024 there were 183 candidates who contributed more than $1 million of personal money to their campaigns.

Of those only 33 candidates or 18% won their races.

Of those who won seven were incumbents.

Of those the majority were Republicans; only 51 Democrats or 28% of the candidates contributed more than $1 million to their campaigns. Republicans constituted 68% of all candidates contributing more than a million to their campaigns. (There were 8 independent candidates included in the totals.)

The average cost per vote varied greatly.

Long shot presidential candidates spent the most per vote.

Table 1 shows personal spending among senate and congressional candidates in three ways. Given that the range of spending is wide, the median number is lower than the average number. So, for instance, in 2024 Democratic Rep. David Trone (D-MD.) spent a whopping $62,771,000 on his primary campaign against Angela Alsobrooks—only to lose to her by 10% of the vote in the primary. At $219 per vote, Trone’s spending was well above the median and average of 2024 congressional candidates.

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

If personal spending in some senate and congressional campaigns is high, it is nowhere near what some long shot presidential candidates spend to try and win the presidential nomination of their party, as Table 2 illustrates. The biggest spender was North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who got so few votes before dropping out of the race that he ended up spending over $27,000 per vote.

Table 2

The fact is that most rich people who spend personal money on campaigns lose—some big time. Why do they do it? There are probably psychological reasons; plain old vanity or a belief that— “If I’m so rich why aren’t I powerful?” Some probably think they can “give back” to the country that made them so rich. Some, probably have a passion for one big issue. For instance, Tom Steyer had a strong belief that we had to deal with the threat of climate change. Others mistakenly believe that a genius at business is the same as a genius at politics. That may be the case for Donald Trump but not for many others.

Should the failure of self-funding politicians make us feel better about the state of democracy? Only a little. Instead of running for office, what many more very wealthy people do is use their wealth to lobby, fund advocacy organizations, and avoid political accountability via dark money. And many of them form relationships with people who are good at politics, which is how the richest man in the world seems to be sitting at the right hand of the president-elect. Will the interests of Elon Musk and Donald Trump align, and more importantly will their policies align with the interests of the voters?

In 2013, three political scientists studied the political views of over 100 rich Americans, whose median wealth was $7,500,000.00. They found large differences between the policy preferences of the rich compared to average Americans. While wealthy individuals often have different priorities, their influence on democracy can vary depending on their ability to shape policies or political outcomes.

Önder Özar Diplomasi Sevgisi

Saturday, January 11, 2025

BROOKINGS Commentary Are the very rich taking over American politics? Elaine Kamarck and Jordan Muchnick January 9, 2025

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